I
am covering the next year’s general election and how each specific state is likely to vote. In order to convey to everyone my observations and predictions (I normally
don’t dare to use that word!) for the same, I have divided states into 2 special
coverages, for Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra and then a five-part series covering
all states other than the two mentioned. UP and Maharashtra have combined 128
seats, that is almost half of what you need to win the general elections.
Therefore today, I am conveying to you the first of the two special coverages
for the state of Uttar Pradesh.
Firstly,
let’s start with Uttar Pradesh. It is commonly said in political corridors that
road to Delhi, goes from Lucknow. UP was the state which was primarily
responsible for electing Mr. Modi as the PM in the first place. The most
important factor in UP’s electoral politics is caste. If you can get your caste
equations right, you are going to run away with the prize. The state has
massive, 80 Lok Sabha seats. Now this state has 3 major players, BJP, Samajwadi
Party (SP) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). Not to forget the numerous smaller players,
all of whom have some or the other effect. BJP in 2014, riding on the Modi wave
won 71 and its ally Apna Dal (Anupriya faction) won 2, respectively. Since then
they have also won a massive 325 seats, with its allies in 2017 assembly elections.
They also installed the ever controversial, Mahant Yogi Adityanath as CM as
well. In 2019, The biggest challenge to BJP here is what we call the Mahagathbandhan. The coming together of
SP, BSP, RLD (Party led by Ajit Singh, son of former PM Chaudhary Charan Singh) and few regional outfits.
If you look at their combined vote share it is far more than BJP. The recent
by-polls were biggest example of this. If the recent campaigning in MP,
Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan elections is any sign, the INC has likely missed this
train. Apart from the two traditional bastions of Raebareli and Amethi, represented
by Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi, the Mahagathbandhan is not going to leave any
seat for the INC. This too is not more than a friendly gesture from Akhilesh
Yadav’s side, who is seen as the architect of this grand alliance. The most difficult
task for SP and BSP is going to be seat sharing. Mayawati has time and again talked
of respectable number of seats. The news coming out as of now is that seat
sharing talks have already begun. Induction of smaller parties is left to
Akhilesh as it is an accepted fact that Mayawati is not much of a team player. Mayawati’s
BSP is likely to get lion’s share of 80 seats which as of now seems to be 36.
Ajit Singh’s RLD is likely to be accommodated in 3-4 seats. Muzaffarnagar,
Baghpat, Kairana and possibly Mathura are the seats currently being discussed
upon. NISHAD Party, whose candidate won the recent by poll in Gorakhpur on SP
symbol, is likely to get apart from Gorakhpur, Jaunpur seat as well. Mohd. Ayyub’s Peace party is likely
to get one seat in alliance, either Domariyaganj or Sant Kabir Nagar. Apna Dal
(Krishna), led by mother of Union Minister Anupriya Patel is also likely to be accommodated
in one seat and be fielded against her daughter. They are also looking towards
the possibility of SBSP, led by OP Rajbhar, joining them although it seems
difficult. Even though he has been attacking his own government, it is unlikely
that he will leave NDA. However, they have set aside a 3-4 seats, in case he
joins the opposition. Other seats will go to Samajwadi Party, which is likely to
get 32-34 seats. The NDA on the other hand seems to be outnumbered as far as
voting percentage goes. It is also looking at various caste coalitions, in
order to counter the alliance. It already has Apna Dal, a party with
considerable Kurmi votebank in Eastern UP. Kurmis comprise of around 12% of
state’s population. It was given two seats last time around, Mirzapur and
Pratapgarh, both of which were won by it. This time around while it has been
asking for 7 seats, BJP likely to give around 2-3 seats to it. Apart from Mirzapur, it
is likely to get Robertsganj seat, with considerable Kurmi Population. Pratapgarh is another such seat. BJP’s other ally, Suheldev
Bhartiya Samaj Party, led by OP Rajbhar who is a cabinet minister in the UP
government, has also been asking for 5 seats in the alliance. OP Rajbhar who
has been critical of his own government, had demands which were allegedly not
met by UP government. However, he has continued to be part of NDA and will fight
elections with the BJP. SBSP is likely to get 1-2 seats in alliance, Salempur and
Ghosi, both of which are Rajbhar dominated areas with their population as high
as 35% in these areas. Apart from the above two, there are two groups/parties
which have been cosying up to BJP. The first being, Shivpal Yadav’s PSPL and
other being Raja Bhaiyya’s Jansatta Dal(JD). The estranged uncle of Akhilesh was
recently given the bunglow vacated by Mayawati, for running his newly formed
outfit. This also means some sort of backroom talks between him and BJP. He
could be asked to field his candidates across all seats and act as vote cutter
from SP’s traditional Yadav base. This in turn will help the BJP candidate on that
seat. Then comes Raghuraj Pratap Singh or Raja Bhaiyya as he is called by his
supporters. The 6-time independent MLA from Kunda, who is seen as the symbol of
Sawarn (Upper Caste) politics, left SP after it aligned with BSP. He has a long
rivalry with Mayawati, who arrested him under POTA, until the law itself was
scrapped. He recently formed Jansatta Dal, his own political party. He is
likely to form a post-poll alliance with the BJP. He is a dominant force in Pratapgarh and Kaushambi.
Hence,
Mahagathbandhan, will see that in
politics, two plus two is not always four. In last assemble elections, two most
important factors were first, Muslim Women who voted in large numbers for BJP
and secondly the Non-Yadav OBCs and Non-Jatav Dalits voting for BJP, apart from
its traditional voter. The state government in coming months is introducing a
subdivision in OBC reservation. A division where 27% reservation would further
get divided into three subclasses, Backward, Extra Backward and Most Backward
with each getting 9% reservation. It is aimed to give better
representation to Non-Yadav OBCs. Apart from the fact that the central
government has already passed an amendment to give Constitutional status to
National Commission of Backward Classes. Same is proposed for the SC reservation, with division likely to divide the reservation in three classes of 7% each. Introduction of issue of Triple Talaq,
is again likely to sway Muslim women. Ram Temple issue is again heating up and
it will be interesting to see what happens to the Private Member bills that are being brought by Manoj Tiwari in Lok Sabha and Prof. Rakesh Sinha in Rajya
Sabha. Now what is the idea of two separate bills? My gut tells me that even if
these don’t pass, what these bills will do is that they will set in motion a
debate not only in both houses, but also across the country. Any such debate is
likely to liven up the poll chances of BJP, if anything. Plus, I have been
visiting places and what I can definitely tell is that development work has picked up pace across the state, especially in Alllahabad (Oh sorry! Prayagraj) where
there is Kumbh coming up in January. I believe Eastern UP, is likely to
back Modi and Yogi once again and with help of its allies, BJP will once again win
big. Same could be said about in Awadh region. However, I believe it is going to be really difficult for BJP to repeat 2014 in
Western UP. It is likely to lose seats here. BJP had complete support of Jats
in 2014. But issues such as reservation and farmer protests, made sure it isn’t
the case right now. Ajit Singh is likely to regain some pride, he lost in 2014,
after losing his own seat which he had won for 6 times, directly. It will be interesting to see if
Naresh Aggarwal is be able to mobilise votes for BJP in the Hardoi-Kannauj-Farrukhabad
region. Only one question is left to be answered, what happens to INC? The
grand old party will face tough fight once again in UP. Missing the train of
alliance, is likely to cost the party big. Rahul Gandhi is likely to face a
tough contest from Union Minister, Smriti Irani in Amethi. His toughest fight
yet, across his political career. Apart from the its traditional bastions there
are very few seats where the party can challenge BJP or alliance candidate. Few
seats include Barabanki, Kushinagar, Saharanpur, Farrukhabad and a couple of
others. It’s vote share has been a meagre 7% in recent time. However, when
fighting alone I believe it can clock a vote share of 10-12 percentage points. This
will instead of challenging, help BJP. INC’s primary vote share is going to eat
into the vote share of Opposition parties and it can affect 7-8 seats, across
the state. One more factor that we need to count is AAP. While it may not affect
other places, 2-4 seats which are in National Capital Region or near it are going
to be affected. Seats such as Ghaziabad, Gautam Buddh Nagar e.tc. It will be
interesting to see how that plays out.
All in all, I believe BJP and its allies will lose around 20 seats from before, mostly in western UP. NDA is likely to win 53(+- 5) seats (BJP: 51,Allies: 2-3). The opposition despite its efforts is not going to
sweep across the state. In grand alliance, BSP likely to win around 10 seats,
SP around 12-13 seats, smaller constituents 3-4 seats. INC may also win 2-3 seats
which include apart from its traditional bastions, Kushinagar. Shivpal himself could give a strong fight in Firozabad. Raja Bhaiyya could win one or either of two in Pratapgarh and Kaushambi.
