Wednesday, May 15, 2019

The Nehru-Gandhis’ Obsession



While writing this piece, I was reminded of those set of events which eventually led to Jawaharlal Nehru’s successor and India’s second Prime Minister, Lal Bahadur Shastri being not allowed to move into the PM’s official residence – Teen Murti Bhavan – owing to Indira Gandhi’s insistence that the house be converted into a memorial for her father.
Teen Murti Bhavan, a verdant 30-acre property where peacocks still roam and mynas make their music, had been the residence of the commander-in-chief of the Indian armed forces during British rule, and Jawaharlal Nehru had moved there only in August 1948, for the first time occupying a space far grander than the bungalows other ministers in his government had (he had lived in one of those bungalows until then).
The past has a strange way of impinging on the present. This 1964 incident instantly drew me back into the hubbub of the Lok Sabha poll campaign, bringing to mind Rahul Gandhi’s comment about the armed forces not being the PM’s “personal property”.
The truth is that with Rahul as a contender for power, the past has a bearing certainly on the present, but on India’s future too. Rahul was chosen to contest the Amethi Lok Sabha seat in 2004 because he was a member of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty, and he was later appointed Congress general secretary, vice-president and president on the same grounds, becoming the fifth member of the clan to occupy the party’s top post. If he’s making a claim to power today, it’s again on account of his being the son, grandson and great-grandson of former PMs.
If lineage and the record of that lineage is a person’s calling card and family experience the sparkling point on his CV, then surely, in that same pack will be found by his political rivals other cards which would help them pose a challenge to the dynasty-led party.
And if Congress’s assertions are about Nehru’s vision, Indira’s will and Rajiv’s ushering of India into the computer era, an opponent’s offensive would be centred around their flaws and foibles. Moreover, if the family’s been in power, directly or indirectly (counting the terms of Congress PMs like PV Narasimha Rao and Manmohan Singh and non-Congress ones like Chandrashekhar, HD Deve Gowda and IK Gujral) for over 50 years out of 72, an audit is both inevitable and imperative.
That’s why those who are strenuously objecting to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s, and BJP’s, attacks on the Nehru-Gandhis are either missing the point or attempting to give credence to the dynasty’s misconceptions and denials.
The Nehru-Gandhis and the so-called ‘left-liberal’ social-political-intellectual elite they’ve patronised are more than approving of a discussion on the dynasty’s legacy so long as it doesn’t get inconvenient. When Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra talk of their forebears’ contribution to India and their sacrifices, their admirers want more of it. When the Marxists, who’ve had a neat and successful pact with the Congress establishment on the capture of institutions and creation of national narratives, hold forth on the Nehruvian order and how it nourished institutions, the inheritors are delighted.
The ‘cultural synthesis’ of the Marxists and the ruling establishment saw to it that the Nehru-Gandhis virtually monopolised free India’s consciousness. Textbooks were written to maximise their role in building India, while that of other eminent Indians was minimised; roads, places, landmarks and institutions named after members of the dynasty further amplified this image; and things reached a point where the dynasts were described, in strictly feudal terms ironic for those who swore by socialism, as India’s First Family.
Revolutionaries, reformists and other Congress stalwarts of the freedom movement like Patel were made to appear smaller, and if Mahatma Gandhi still remained symbolically tall, it was because invoking his name – and surname – was hugely advantageous.
Now, neither Rahul nor Priyanka can be blamed as individuals for where they were born. But they haven’t had issues with people’s “obsession” with their family if the result is abundant acclaim and applause, and there’s no denying the dynasty acquired, in time, a reputation for rewarding sycophancy and punishing non-conformists like Narasimha Rao.
They themselves aren’t known for linguistic restraint either. In his first speech as Congress president, Rahul referred to VD Savarkar as someone who kowtowed to the British, and he’s kept up this criticism; Congress on Twitter labelled Savarkar a “traitor”. Rahul’s freedom to offer his interpretation of history is complete. But then how is it such a monstrosity if, the moment Rahul talks of India entering an era of dictatorship, someone reminds him of an era of constitutional dictatorship? Or if the minute he talks of an individual assuming far too much centrality in decision-making, DK Barooah’s “Indira is India, India is Indira” comment is pulled out?
Or if, whenever Rahul mentions poverty, he’s told about a slogan raised nearly 50 years ago which had promised to end “garibi”? If national security’s an issue and 1971 a year to talk about, then 1962 can’t be too far behind; and if Hindu-Muslim tensions are up for discussion, then rivals can hardly be expected to help Congress skirt issues like Shah Bano, the ban on ‘Satanic Verses’ and reopening of the Babri Masjid’s locks. The same goes for a slur like “traitor”, thrown about carelessly by both sides.
The level of discourse must indeed be debated, and criticism of crude remarks is only fair. What isn’t is the righteous indignation all around. Regardless of the outcome of these elections, there’s every reason for the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty to have been a subject of debate during the campaign.

Wednesday, February 13, 2019

In the Middle of Everything: Bihar, Jharkhand, Haryana and Punjab




This is the, third of my five-part series, covering the next year’s Lok Sabha elections. In previous edition, I covered most of the states in Eastern Belt including West Bengal, Odisha and all states in the North Eastern region of India. This edition will cover the states of Bihar, Jharkhand, Punjab and Haryana. All these states combined, have 77 Lok Sabha seats.



BIHAR

It is a state which after UP, Maharashtra, West Bengal has highest number of Lok Sabha seats for taking. It was among the states that were completely swept in Modi Wave by BJP led NDA in 2014. In last general elections, NDA which comprised of Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP) apart from BJP, won 31/40 seats in Bihar in 2014. This was in contrast to last 20 years, when NDA always had Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) as a partner in Bihar. Apart from these players, you have Lalu Yadav’s RJD, now led ably by his son Tejaswi Yadav, is primary opposition party. Before 2019, a lot of political realignment is expected to happen. Tejaswi Yadav, is in talks to create a Mahagathbandhan like UPA, to fight NDA in 2019. This is likely to comprise apart from RJD, INC, Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustan Awam Morcha (HAM). RLSP also joined UPA, because he didn’t get respectable number of seats in NDA. This was due to JD(U) joining NDA this time around. Kushwaha along with another member Sharad Yadav, who is a veteran himself, and has floated Loktantrik Janata Dal (LJD) is in same league. Speculation is also rife that RLSP and LJD could merge to create a new entity. This would help both Sharad Yadav and Upendra Kushwaha, as both are former JD(U) men who don’t see eye to eye with Nitish Kumar, the incumbent CM. This merged entity has been offered a much more respectable number of seats by UPA. Independent MP, Pappu Yadav is also likely to be part of this alliance from INC quota. His wife Ranjeeta Ranjan is already a sitting MP from Supaul on INC ticket. Other than this former JNUSU President Kanhaiya Kumar is likely to be part of alliance from Begusarai on a CPI ticket. BSP can also be accommodated on one seat. As far the NDA is concerned, it is likely to consist of JD(U), LJP apart from BJP. One more party, which has emerged in recent times in Bihar is Mukesh Sahni’s Vikasheel Insaan Party (VIP). It is reportedly in talks with both NDA as well as UPA. It has considerable clout among NISHADs which have presence in 14 Lok Sabha seats. It is also to be noted that most of the current legislators of RLSP except Kushwaha himself, one MP and two MLAs in Legislative assemblies, are seen with NDA and are unlikely to leave it. They could be accommodated on JD(U) tickets.



In recent times, clout of BJP has suffered in Bihar since 2014. That is why it was keen on an alliance with its long-time partner, JDU. This is where Sushaasan Babu comes in. Especially if BJP is to counter the rainbow of coalition is being formed under RJD by Tejaswi Yadav. Nitish Kumar across all his 6 terms as CM has been able to create a separate Nitish Kumar Vote bank for himself. This vote bank is for the secular, people friendly CM who has been able to transform Jungle raj into a developing state. Something that very few leaders have achieved in last seventy years. So, even though his Kurmi Vote bank is only 2% of the state, his own vote bank pushes that figure to at-least 15-20%. Even in 2014 when JDU fought elections alone and won only two seats, its vote share was a good 18%. However, it is also to be noted that JDU’s secular image has taken a little of bit of a hit in recent times. Especially when he aligned with Lalu Yadav and a year later took a U-turn again to form government with BJP. JDU also got a boost recently when Prashant Kishor, political analyst who helped win Modi in 2014, joined JDU as its National Vice-President. Tejaswi Yadav, on the other hand, has been steadfastly moving towards a coalition that is bound to reduce affect NDA seats in 2014. Law and Order has become a major issue in recent times. All in all, NDA (BJP- 14, JDU- 12, LJP-4,) is expected to win around 30 seats in 2019. UPA (RJD-5, INC-2, Others- 3) on the other hand is expected to win around 10 seats this time around. Among all states, NDA seems much stronger this time around in Bihar even more than 2014.



JHARKHAND

In recent times, after few turbulent years post separation from Bihar in 2000, this state has been a stronghold of BJP. In 2014, BJP won 12/14 Lok Sabha seats that were there for taking. While INC was not able to win any seat, Shibu Soren’s Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) was only able to retain 2 seats in stronghold area. While a fourth small player, Babulal Marandi’s Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (JVM) could not win either. In this state as well, a rainbow coalition is being formed of JMM, INC, JVM and RJD under UPA. This is likely to be a cacophonous equation for BJP. NDA is likely to comprise BJP and All Jharkhand Students’ Union led by Sudesh Mahto. In 2019, seat sharing is going to be a big headache for UPA. It has to accommodate apart from regular parties, RJD and possibly a candidate of RLSP/LJD from Bihar, which wants the Hazaribagh Seat. Raghubar Das is facing a lot of criticism in the state and opposition unity is going to hurt BJP in Jharkhand. All in all, NDA is expected to win 6 seats (BJP-5, AJSU-1), down from 12 it won in 2014. UPA is expected to win the other 8 seats (JMM-3, INC-4, JVM-1).



PUNJAB

 This state has a habit of surprising everyone. In the peak of Modi Wave when NDA won everything across the Hindi-Heartland, NDA could not even win half of seats of the 13 seats in the state. On the other hand, AAP (Aam Aadmi Party), a party not even a year old won 4 seats in the state. INC won other 4 seats in the state, with Capt. Amrinder Singh, who is now the CM, defeating Union Finance Minister Arun Jaitley. This time around, I think there are very few surprises on offer. Like it did in 2017 assembly elections, INC is likely to sweep across the state. The other NDA constituent, Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) which was led by Prakash Singh Badal, 8-time CM of state, won 4 seats in 2014. This time around after being routed in assembly elections, it is expected to be routed again. The Firozpur MP of SAD has already left the party. It is a stronghold of party and he had been a 3-time MP. But speculation is that Sukhbir Badal, Prakash Badal’ son and SAD President, is ready to fight from this seat and that’s why the sitting MP left. He has been MP from the Faridkot seat, near the Firozpur seat. There is a revolt just around the corner in Akali Dal. It expected to not win any seat, apart from the traditional Badal family seats. AAP is in tartars after doing well in 2014. Two of its four MP have been suspended. Also whole of the state unit has revolted against Kejriwal, which means AAP has weakened a lot over last couple of years. What this means on ground is that it is expected to find it very difficult in 2019. INC’s revival after drubbing it received in 2014, started from Punjab in 2017. It is expected to continue to do better under Capt. Amrinder Singh. All in all, NDA is expected to win 3 seats (SAD-2, BJP-1), INC is expected to win around 9 seats in the state up from 4 it won in 2014. AAP is expected to win 1 seat, due to weakened presence in the state. It will also not be surprising that AAP fails to open account and INC touches double digit.



HARYANA   

It is a complex state which has many players. Primary regional party in state, apart from the traditional National parties, is OP Chautala’s INLD (Indian National Lok Dal). It was previously part of NDA but left NDA some time back. OP Chautala, former CM of Haryana, is son of former Deputy PM, Chaudhary Devilal. For 2019, it had aligned with Mayawati’s BSP, but latter broke the alliance and is now in alliance with RK Saini’s party. Primary party which has ruled Haryana has been INC, led by Bhupendra Singh Hooda. However, BJP has in recent years been able to win the state. In 2014, BJP won 7 of the 10 seats in Haryana. INC won its traditional stronghold of Rohtak. While INLD won 2 seats in Hisar region. INLD however, due to being divided in two factions has weakened in recent times. This will directly help both INC and BJP. There is anti-incumbency against the Khattar government regarding a lot of social issues as well as Law and Order problem. But what BJP has been able to do in recent years in Haryana is polarisation of Non-Jat Votes. This will help it overcome the anti-incumbency in state. Weakling of INLD along with PM Modi’s charisma is likely to help BJP survive a few seats in Haryana. Jind by poll was the biggest example of this, where for the first time a BJP won the seat. This was due to division on Jat votes among JJP, INC and INLD. The division of INLD could break its back forever. There is more sympathy for Dushyant Chautala’s JJP, which could retain the Hisar seat. Kuldeep Bishnoi, son of former CM Bhajanlal, who floated HJC and allied with BJP has merged with INC. JJP will eat into vote-share of both national parties but majorly INLD and in that situation will help BJP, emerge as single largest party. Even with anti-incumbency against state government, it will do well to retain 7 seats in the state. INC is expected to win 2 seats, this time around. INLD is likely to not win due to division of votes by JJP and is likely to not win any seat. JJP could win Hisar, its stronghold, that too with a lot of difficulties.



So, of the 77 Lok Sabha seats up for grab, NDA is expected to win 46 seats (BJP- 26, SAD-3, AJSU-1, JDU- 12, LJP-4,) while UPA is expected to win 29 seats (INC-17, RJD-5, Others- 7). AAP and JJP are expected to win 1 seat each.

Monday, February 11, 2019

Whose Sun will Rise in the East? West Bengal, Odisha, North Eastern States (7 sisters+ Sikkim)





This is the, second of my five-part series, covering the next year’s Lok Sabha elections. In previous edition, I looked at all the Union Territories including Delhi and the State of Jammu and Kashmir. This edition will cover the state of West Bengal, Odisha and all North Eastern States which include Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Manipur, Tripura, Nagaland, Mizoram, Sikkim. All these states combined have 88 Lok Sabha seats.



WEST BENGAL

This state has always been the first place where the revolutions begin. People familiar with the Indian National Movement would certify to it. West Bengal was the bastion of CPI(M) for almost four decades. Jyoti Basu is the second longest serving CM of any state in India, first being PK Chamling of Sikkim. But to hold onto a state like Bengal, speaks volumes of influence CPM had in the state. However, everything changed when Mamata Bannerjee led All India Trinamool Congress (AITMC) breached this fortress after four decades. Now she herself is in a similar position like Jyoti Basu (sort of!). She has managed to hold Bengal and has been winning election after election, from Panchayat to Parliament. West Bengal has 42 Lok Sabha seats. After UP and Maharashtra, it is the third biggest state in terms of Lok Sabha seats. INC’s golden days were during Pt. Nehru’s era. Post that it was delegated to the second place by Jyoti Basu’s CPM. In recent years during 2009 Lok Sabha, AITMC was a constituent of UPA and won 19 seats along side INC which won 6. However, in 2014 Didi, dumped INC and won a historic 34/42 Lok Sabha seats. INC won 4 seats and CPM and BJP both won 2 each. In recent times, where Left front and INC have been at a nadir, BJP has used that space and is now the principle opposition party in the state. That being said, Didi is still the force majeure in the state. BJP was boosted in recent times when TMC’s master strategist and number two in party, Mukul Roy, joined the saffron outfit. This was a big boost for the party. It is mostly targeting the tribal areas and non-Bengali population in the state. It is likely to make big strides in the state this time around. It is likely to win seats in North Bengal and a few seats in South Bengal. Among the two seats that BJP won last time around, Darjeeling seat is heavily affected by Gorkha Morcha, which is now backing Mamata Bannerjee, unlike last time when it backed BJP. INC has declined from last time and is likely to lose seats from 4 it won in 2014. CPM is almost finished in Bengal. It won two seats last time around. It is likely to not win any seat this time around. Also, the speculation is rife that the all mercurial Dada, Former Indian Captain Sourav Ganguly, could join BJP this time around before polls. BJP had offered him ticket in 2014 as well, which he had refused. But since then, on one side he has assumed presidentship of CAB and a more social role in state while on the other BJP has also made strides in the state. Him joining is going to give BJP a mercurial leader in Bengal, something which they have been missing. So, in Bengal, it could be a battle of Didi vs Dada.

All in all, AITMC is likely to win around 28 seats this time around. It is on the back of Mamata Bannerjee’s popularity in the state. BJP is going to be the biggest gainer, as far as seats are concerned. Although it is expected to lose the Darjeeling seat, it will gain big and is expected to win around 10-11 seats this time around. INC is likely to win 2-3 seats, in and around its stronghold of Maldaha region. CPM is expected to draw a blank this time around. However, situation could change if there is a pre-poll alliance between the CPM and Congress party. If that happens, it can propel the alliance to win 6-7 seats on its own. Thereby majorly denting Trinamool Congress.  



NORTH EASTERN STATES (Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Manipur, Tripura, Nagaland, Mizoram, Sikkim)



These 8 above mentioned states combined form the North Eastern region of India. Government of India in 2014 had formed a separate ministry for the development of North Eastern region. There are combined 25 Lok Sabha seats across the 8 states. However, majority of the them, 14 to be precise, fall in the state of Assam. It is a state which for 15 years had a Congress government under Tarun Gogoi. However, BJP led NDA was able to unseat him in 2016. In 2014, BJP won 7 of the 14 seats for the first time. Subsequently, Prafulla Mahanta’s Assom Gana Parishad (AGP) and Bodoland People’s Party (BPP) joined it as partners. This is the lot that will fight elections together and comprise of NDA in Assam. Citizenship bill could be a big hurdle for BJP in North-East this time around. There have been massive protests, against it. AGP even left NDA because of this issue. BJP will have to keep this issue on the backseat in order to win big in north east. INC on the other hand was decimated here in last elections, as was the case across India. It won 3 seats last time around. Since then it has also lost the assembly elections. Another regional player which won the 3 seats last time around was Badruddin Ajmal’s All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF). It has strong Muslim base in state. INC is likely to ally with AIUDF in the next elections. BJP’s presence has increased significantly since last time and it is expected to increase its vote share and seats this time around. NDA combined is likely to win 9-10 seats this time around, up from 7 on the back of newfound allies. INC and AIUDF are expected to win 2 seats each.

In Arunachal Pradesh, where there are two Lok Sabha seats. It already has Kiran Rijiju who is also MoS for Home, as a MP from Arunachal West. It is likely to retain that seat. In Manipur, both seats were won by the INC in 2014. BJP is expected to win at least one of the two seats. Other is expected to go to INC. Similar situation is in Tripura, where BJP, for the first time, formed government in state recently. It is expected to snatch both the seats from CPM in Tripura. In Meghalaya, NPP (National People’s Party) is expected to retain the Tura seat. It has been held by the Sangma family for decades. NPP is part of NDA and is ruling the state. INC is expected to retain the Shillong seat. In Nagaland, Nephio Rio’s NDPP a constituent of NDA is expected to win the lone seat comfortably. In Mizoram, MNF (Mizo National Front) which is also a member of NDA at centre, is expected to wrestle the lone seat from INC, this time around. In Sikkim, PK Chamling’s SDF (Sikkim Democratic front) has been holding the lone seat from years. The situation is unlikely to change. All in all, NDA is expected to win 17 seats in the North east region out of a possible 25. Meanwhile UPA is likely to get 8 seats.



ODISHA

This is also one of the states in the Eastern India. It has for the last 20 years been ruled by Naveen Patnaik’s BJD (Biju Janata Dal). It was part of the NDA during Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s regime. However, they left NDA in 2009. INC had been the principle opposition party to BJD all along in the state. However, everything changed in 2014. In 2014, INC drew a blank in 21 Lok Sabha seats of the state. Of the 21, 20 were won by the ruling BJD and the lone seat was won by Union Minister Jual Oram on a BJP ticket. This has further led to decimation of INC in the state. It has reduced considerably, and BJP has in the meantime gained the position of principle opposition party in the state. But unlike, West Bengal what BJP does have in Odisha is a face. Union Minister Dharmendra Pradhan is the party’s face in the state. In last 2-3 years, BJP has gained significant ground in the state and is in striking distance to form government in the next elections. What this also means is that party will also do well as compared to last general elections. Naveen Patnaik has been losing ground rapidly in the state. BJP got a boost recently when Aparajita Sarangi, a former Union Secretary joined BJP recently. Baijayant Jay Panda, Industrialist and 3-time Lok Sabha MP from Kendrappa, who left BJD recently is also likely to join BJP. There is also news of PM Modi contesting from Puri Lok Sabha seat, apart from Varanasi. This will be a huge boost for the saffron party which will also in turn affect the adjoining areas in state. All in all, BJP is expected to win 10 seats this time around, even without PM Modi contesting from Puri seat. BJD is expected to win the other 11 seats, down by almost half from last time. INC, like last time, is likely to not win any seat in the state.



Combining results from all the 88 Lok Sabha seats show that BJP led NDA will be the biggest gainer in these states and is expected to win almost triple of what it won in 2014 in the Eastern region. Of the 88 seats, NDA is expected to win 38 seats (BJP-31, Other NDA constituents-7) while UPA is expected to win 11 seats (INC-9, Others-2). Mamata Bannerjee’s TMC is expected to win 28 seats while Naveen Patnaik’s BJD is expected to win 11 seats.

The Priyanka Factor: How will it affect UP in the upcoming General Elections





Political Pundits often say, “Politics is all about optics”. This phrase holds key for the Indian National Congress in Uttar Pradesh in the upcoming general elections. On a breezy January afternoon last month, Rahul Gandhi appointed Priyanka Gandhi Vadra and Jyotiraditya Scindia as AICC General Secretaries, in-charge of Eastern UP and Western UP respectively. It is commonly said in political corridors that road to Delhi, goes from Lucknow. UP was the state which was primarily responsible for electing Mr. Modi as the PM in the first place. BJP led NDA won a whooping 73 seats in 2014, reducing other parties such as SP and INC to their family seats. Since then a lot of water has passed in Gomti. In an earlier post on this blog (titled THE BIG BANG STATE), I had discussed in detail, political prospects of all parties in UP for upcoming polls.



Continuing from there, why do we need to look things differently now in UP? Since this piece is mostly about Priyanka Vadra and INC’s poll prospects post announcements, I shall focus on the same. First, we need to revisit the current situation of the party in UP. It was reduced to Amethi and Raebareli in 2014 elections, during the Modi wave. But its deterioration started in UP, when the Mandal era began. ND Tiwari was the last CM from the INC in the late 1980s. This continued till 2017, when it was reduced to just 7 MLAs in a state which has 403 MLAs. This was their worst ever performance, especially considering they had allied with Akhilesh Yadav’s SP. It was in power in UP at that time. They even hired Prashant Kishor, the strategist responsible for running Modi’s campaign in 2014. Even if you let 2014 go as an exception, what went wrong for INC in 2017 in UP? I was talking to Prashant Kishor last June, and he said to me what he had, time and gain said in media as well as to Rahul Gandhi back then that for INC to regain ground in UP, it must fight alone in order to revamp its cadre in the state. Because in a coalition, transfer of vote is not always cent percent. Plus, one must understand that INC’s vote is not considered to be transferable, which we have seen across many elections. This was the primary reason why INC was kept out of the SP-BSP alliance. So, the big question now is that will Priyanka Vadra and Jyotiraditya Scindia be able to revive INC’s fortunes in UP? Answer to this question has multiple facets. But first we need to understand what works in UP? I am not going to talk about development and then subtly talk about caste. People aware with UP know what the ground reality is. The most important factor in UP’s electoral politics is caste. If you can get your caste equations right, you are going to run away with the prize. The other factor is chemistry, between the voter and the party. So, what was the INC’s primary base before Bindeshwari Prasad Mandal’s report ruined it for them? There were majorly three main constituents of INC’s vote base. Brahmin, Dalits and Muslims. All of them combined constitute around 50% of state’s population. But since then they all have moved ahead with different political parties with Brahmins majorly moving towards BJP, Dalits towards BSP and Muslims towards SP. BJP in recent times has also been able to penetrate Non-Yadav OBCs and Non-Jatav Dalits, which has been the reason for their astounding success in the state. Now one charge which has been traditionally put on Congress is that it promotes nepotism and members of Gandhi family are above anyone and everyone. But there’s an upside to this as well. The degree of galvanisation that a Gandhi family member can do to its cadre, no one else can. Rahul Gandhi after being disappointed by SP-BSP combine has rather used that idea to his own advantage. This brings us to Priyanka’s impact in the current situation. The base of any leadership is a galvanised cadre, in addition to a leader. Cadre is what INC lacks in the current situation in UP. Mrs. Vadra’s intervention is likely to galvanise the cadre for a strong fight in the next polls. Make no mistake this is not going to make INC win some 40 seats in next polls, because as I said she will galvanise the cadre not the people. What this means is that INC’s worker has a new vigour to work for his/her leader in the state. Will it convert to seats? Most likely No. So, what will it do? To understand the details, we must look at vote shares of each major political party in the state. BJP has around 42% of vote share, SP 22%, BSP 20%, INC 7%. Now after the announcement made by INC, I have been trying to understand this more closely. I have, after detailed analysis come to this conclusion that INC under Priyanka will dent vote share of all major parties. I have already said that INC when fighting alone, even without Priyanka can clock a vote share of around 11%, on its own. Priyanka’s entry is likely to give INC a push of around 5-6 %, overall. That increase is likely to come from its traditional vote base of Brahmins, Muslims and Dalits. But as far as conversion of seats is concerned, it will have impact in pockets. The current situation suggests that it will impact SP-BSP more than BJP. It is because both Muslims and Dalits have traditionally voted for SP and BSP and this will lead to division of these votes. Brahmins have voted majorly for BJP in recent times, although it is also true that Brahmins have very rarely voted en masse, and mostly their vote gets divided between BJP and BSP. So, of the 5-6% increase, around 75-80% is likely to come from SP-BSP combine and the rest from BJP. INC would also be benefited from the fact that in general elections, National parties have slight edge over regional players.  



Political Party
Previous Vote-share
Expected Vote-share (2019)
BJP
42.5%
40%
SP+BSP
42%
32-35%
INC
7%
15-16%




Coming to the number of seats that it can convert in the upcoming general elections. In last elections, INC finished second on six seats including Ghaziabad, Kanpur, Lucknow. INC won 21 seats in 2009 which was really an exception considering the history of last 30 years. This time around, it has specifically decided to focus on around 30 seats when it can challenge the other two factions which include seats such as Kushinagar, Barabanki, Dhaurhara, Bareilly, Saharanpur, Sultanpur, Pratapgarh, Farrukhabad, Allahabad, Varanasi and a few others. On other 50 seats the grand old party is not even in the picture. Most of these seats are also targeted because of strong candidates in the fray which include quite a few former Union Ministers such as Jitin Prasada, RPN Singh and Salman Khurshid.  How many is it likely to win? It is most likely to win apart from its traditional Amethi and Raebareli, seats such as PL Punia’s Barabanki, RPN Singh’s Kushinagar, Imran Masood’s Saharanpur, Jitin Prasada’s Dhaurhara. At most, INC can win 6-8 seats in the next Lok Sabha elections from Uttar Pradesh. But the increase in vote share can, with further consolidation, help it do well in the next assembly elections. All in all, the answer to the question weather Priyanka Gandhi Vadra will impact UP is both YES and NO. 

One more news that has recently emerged is that after the announcement of two AICC general secretaries for UP, SP-BSP are reportedly ready to give a better deal to the Congress party. They were ready to offer INC not more than 8 seats, apart from Amethi and Raebareli, six more seats where it had come second in 2014. Congress party wanted at that time at least 15 seats to contest, which both were not ready to give. Now, after announcement by INC, the alliance is reportedly ready to give 15 seats to Congress party. But Congress party now wants SP,BSP,INC to contest 25 seats each, leaving 5 for other allies. It seems really difficult that the two regional satraps would agree to this understanding. It will be really interesting to see how this situation pans out, because there is nothing which is impossible in politics. 

Sunday, December 9, 2018

From Outsiders to Heart of the matter: All Union Territories and the State of Jammu and Kashmir




This is the first part of the five-part series of my coverage of Lok Sabha elections. Apart from this series, I have already covered Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra under Special editions. After these two states, this first part covers all the Union Territories including the National Capital Territory of Delhi and the State of Jammu and Kashmir. This covers in total, 19 Lok Sabha seats.



NATIONAL CAPITAL TERRITORY OF DELHI   

Delhi has always had a habit of surprising everyone, even to Delhiites themselves. In last two Lok Sabha elections there have been complete sweeps, by INC in 2009 and BJP in 2014. So what will happen in 2019? While AAP got a historic mandate in 2015 Vidhan Sabha elections, winning 67/70 seats, it got defeated badly in Municipal Corporation (MCD) elections. What does this prove? Delhiites prefer to not mix things. While Mr. Modi is the preferred choice at the centre, Kejriwal has been their choice at state level. Coming to the present-day situation, INC has been relegated to a distant third in Delhi, as far as vote share goes. There were talks about alliance between AAP and INC, but nothing could materialise. Mainly because of seat sharing issues. AAP was not ready to concede more than 2 seats. This may cost heavily, not only to INC but AAP as well. While of the seven seats, according to seat share, there are only three seats where there is a chance of fighting between the BJP and opposition candidate. In other seats the vote share is difference is too big to be covered by a single party, either Congress or AAP, alone. The three seats are Chandni Chowk, South Delhi and West Delhi. First in Chandni Chowk, where Kapil Sibbal could give a tough fight to Union Minister Dr Harshvardhan. This is mainly because this constituency consists of a lot of traders and effects of Demonetisation and GST could haunt BJP here. However, BJP continues to remain ahead by a good 4-5%. Second seat is that of South Delhi. This seat mainly consists of the urban elite of Delhi. AAP in last Lok Sabha as well, gave a good fight to BJP’s Ramesh Bidhuri. Third seat where AAP has in recent times been able to increase its vote share is the West Delhi Lok Sabha seat.

However, no party nor INC in Chandni Chowk or AAP in West and South Delhi, is in a position to defeat BJP on its own. The alliance, however, could have tilted balance their favour. The alliance would have been deadly and in a position to defeat BJP in at least 2-3 seats. That being said, there is indeed some disgruntlement against sitting MPs in Delhi. BJP is likely to change at least 3 MPs out of the 7 sitting ones. Cricketer Gautam Gambhir is likely to fight election on a BJP ticket, possibly from South or New Delhi constituency. Vijay Goel is also expected to be fielded among the seven candidates. He has been a 2-time Lok Sabha MP from Chandni Chowk. There has also been news of Kirron Kher or his husband Anupam Kher fighting from one of the seats. But most importantly it is Mr Modi’s face that will do the job for the BJP, once again in Delhi. The Saffron party under Mr Modi’s face is likely to sweep across all 7 seats once again in 2019.   



JAMMU and KASHMIR

This state has seen most of last 70 years under a President’s rule, as is the case right now. Major players in the state include People’s Democratic Party (J&K-PDP) led by Mehbooba Mufti, who was until six months back in an alliance with BJP. Apart from it, the ever-present Abdullah parivar, is represented by National Conference (J&K-NC). In recent times, a third party has arisen, namely the People’s Conference(J&K-PC), led by Sajjad Lone. He is seen as a man currently backed by BJP in the state. Apart from them you have the two major national parties, the BJP and INC. The state comprises of three completely distinct regions namely Kashmir valley, Jammu and Leh. While BJP in recent times has managed to win the latter two, the valley remains a challenge for it. INC has depleted significantly from what it was during Ghulam Nabi Azad’s time as CM. In valley, BJP has to rely upon one or the other partner. After a relatively quiet last six months in the state, post BJP withdrawing support from PDP led government, temperatures soared up once again recently when Governor dissolved the state assembly. This dissolution of assembly was criticised by the PDP, NC and INC. All of whom are rivals themselves. This state has 6 Lok Sabha seats. In 2014, BJP riding on Modi wave won 3 seats, both Jammu seats as well as the Leh seat. PDP won all three seats in valley. This time around while BJP has continued to gain in Jammu, where it did very well in assembly polls as well. Kashmir remains a challenge for it. Leh MP, Thupstan Chhewang resigned recently due being unhappy with BJP. He is likely to join the Congress party. Sajjad Lone’s PC is likely to be part of NDA and fight all three seats in the valley. A heavyweight Muzaffar Husain Baig, sitting MP from Baramulla is now backing Sajjad lone and is likely to fight in next election on a PC ticket. National conference is likely to go into a prepoll alliance with the Congress party. PDP and NC are expected to retain their traditional strongholds in Anantnag and Srinagar. INC which drew a blank last time around, is likely to win the Leh Seat. Meanwhile, BJP will do well to retain the two seats it won in Jammu. Assembly elections are expected to be held together with the general elections, which would in turn help BJP backed Sajjad Lone do well in assembly elections as well. Final tally is expected to be NDA 3 seats (BJP-2, J&KPC-1), UPA-2 (J&KNC-1, INC-1) and J&KPDP-1.



UNION TERRITORIES (Andaman Islands, Chandigarh, Dadra and Nagar Haveli, Daman and Diu, Lakshadweep and Puducherry)

All the six out of seven Union territories above mentioned, have one Lok Sabha seats each. While Andaman Island has been a BJP stronghold, it is expected to win the seat comfortably. Chandigarh, like all the six territories has seen a direct battle between the two major National parties. BJP is also expected to win the Chandigarh seat. There are also talks that Kirron Kher could be sent to Delhi. Dadra and Nagar Haveli as well as Daman and Diu seats are also likely to fall in BJP’s kitty. Lakshadweep seat, which has considerable Muslim population, is likely to got to the Congress Party. NCP managed to win this seat last time around. On the Puducherry seat unlike the last time, NDA’s NR Congress is likely to lose this time around to Congress party. However, this could change if there’s a prepoll alliance between AIADMK and BJP, which seems difficult as of now. There is most likely going to be a post poll one, if needed.


All in all, among the 19 seats that are up for grab in this set, NDA is expected to win 14 seats (BJP 13, PC-1). UPA on the other hand is expected to win 4 seats (INC-3, NC-1). Mehbooba Mufti’s PDP is expected to win 1 seat, down from 3 it won in 2014.

Monday, December 3, 2018

Will Marathas do it Maharashtra?


This is the second in line, of the two special editions on my coverage of Lok Sabha Elections 2019 and how different states are going to vote. The first special edition covered in detail the political situation in Uttar Pradesh. The link for that is this (https://ambujsinghbeirniadaeth.blogspot.com/2018/11/the-big-bang-state-uttar-pradesh.html). This edition covers the State of Maharashtra.


Maharashtra is the second most important state, politically, after Uttar Pradesh. The reason is its 48 Lok Sabha seats, second only to UP. While Maharashtra may not have able to give us a Prime Minister yet, however no party has been able to form a comprehensive government in Delhi without winning this state. Maharashtra has mostly been represented in Delhi by Chavans, in previous INC and UPA governments. BJP’s original Chanakya, Pramod Mahajan also came from this state, before Amit Shah came into picture. In 2014 as well, this state was only second to UP, in helping Mr. Modi become the Prime Minister. NDA won 42 out of the 48 Lok Sabha seats that were there for the taking. The NDA in 2014 comprised of BJP, Shiv Sena, Republican Party of India (Athawale), Swabhimani Paksha (SWP), Rashtriya Samaj Paksha (RSP). Now there are four major political outfits in the state. The BJP, INC, Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP). However, barring a couple of seats, more often than not the state has a binary battle, especially in General elections. The reason, well NCP although being a national party itself, has by and large, fought alongside the Congress party. The other major player in the state is Shiv Sena, founded by iconic Balasaheb Thackery. Shiv Sena is the oldest ally of BJP, even before the National Democratic alliance was founded by Atal Bihari Vajpayee. So normally in general elections, it is BJP and Shiv Sena on one side and INC and NCP on the other. So, what is different this time around? Many would like to believe that something is, but it’s actually not. So, let’s begin with the Opposition. Indian National Congress was for years the main political party in the state. However, everything changed when Sharad Pawar formed NCP in 1999. In every government even with a lesser legislative number, he has been able to micromanage the Congress party. But this changed in 2014, when although in an alliance and fighting lesser seats than the grand old party he was able to win, double the seats won by the congress party. Although the opposition was diminished in front of NDA’s numbers, over the last four and a half years, NCP and INC have consolidated themselves. UPA got a boost in arm recently when Raju Shetty’s SWP joined it, leaving NDA just after four years. Sharad Pawar has been trying to form a UP like grand alliance, comprising of NCP, INC, SWP, BSP and Left parties. Seat sharing talks are also going on with previous formula not acceptable to NCP anymore. Previously of the 48, INC used to fight on 26 while NCP on 22. However, with Congress’s strength depleting and few other allies cosying up, it is likely to change. What seems to be the probability is that SWP is going to fight on one seat, Hathkangle, from where Raju Shetty is sitting MP. BSP is also likely to get 1-2 seats in the alliance, either Amaravati or Gadchiroli-Chimur. CPI(M) is also likely to get one seat. They have tried negotiating with Prakash Ambedkar’s Bharipa Bahujan Mahasangh (BBM), but on the contrary he allied with Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM. It is highly unlikely that INC would ally with AIMIM, for Congress sees it as a B-Team of BJP. NCP and Congress would most probably have to settle for 22 seats each in the state. Congress would most likely have to cough up seats because Ashok Chavan realises, it’s better to be in alliance with NCP than fight alone. Although in recent times, Sharad Pawar has been giving feelers to BJP as well, but it is unlikely that he will ally with them, at least prepoll. Had all parties been fighting alone, then anything was possible. The biggest catch here is BBM-AIMIM alliance. It is likely to cut through the so-called secular votes, not only in rural Maharashtra but also in some urban parts. It is likely to affect around 15 seats. This in turn will help the NDA candidate on that seat. Coming to the NDA. There have been a lot of rumblings within the government’s alliance in recent times. Shiv Sena is believed to be angry with BJP, so much so that they even announced that they will fight next year’s election alone. However, political pundits are far too familiar with this line of theory. It is an accepted fact that Shiv Sena is no more the party of Balasaheb’s time. Over the years, it was the senior partner of BJP in state, but in 2014 elections and since then their vote share has depleted significantly. This was proved in the recent Palghar Lok Sabha by-election. And this hue and cry only seems to be a political move to get good number of seats as well as to revive its fortunes in the public sphere. Uddhav Thackrey coming to Ayodhya was to further that agenda and mobilise Hindu votes. That being said, it would be foolish of BJP to let Sena go at this point of time. It would be best for both of them, to fight together under NDA. Hence, NDA is most likely to consist of BJP, Shiv Sena, RPI(A) and RSP. Seat sharing is going to be a big headache for the NDA here in 2019 election. Shiv Sena has 18 sitting MPs of the 20 seats that it fought in 2014. However, it seems difficult for BJP to give Sena 20 seats this time around. Sena will at best, have to lose at least 2 seats, this time around in the alliance. At worst, it will lose at least 5-6 seats in alliance. Ramdas Athawale‘s RPI is likely to get 1-2 seats. He has been asking for Mumbai-South Central and Satara. Mahadev Jankar’s RSP is likely to get one seat, either Baramati or Madha. BJP is likely to contest in 27-28 seats in 2019 elections in Maharashtra as part of the NDA on the back of its increased strength in last four and a half years as against 24 seats it contested in 2014. The bottom-line is that the opposition is forming a rainbow of coalition which will be up against the old Hindutva brotherhood of BJP-Shiv Sena.


Over the course of last four and a half years, NDA has been ruling both in state as well as in central government. However, the combined engine has not been able to do wonders for the state. The state has witnessed a drought like situation in two out of last four years in the Beed-Latur region. There is a general disenchantment against the government, especially in farmers. There have been protests against the government from the farmers side. This along with the Bhima-Koregaon incident doesn’t speak too well of the state government on law and order front. But to say that all is lost would be a juvenile argument. While there have been problems, the government has also taken a lot of steps. Most prominent among them being the Jalyukta Shivar campaign—a collective implementation of all water conservation schemes—and the farm loan waiver announced in June 2017 had expanded irrigation coverage and brought farmers back into the institutional credit system. Infrastructure projects like trans harbour link and Coastal Road connecting Nariman Point to Kandivali, go a long way. But above all, I feel Devendra Fadnavis has been able to create a soft-spoken, grounded, humble and growing image of himself, much like the PM. Fadnavis, has also earned substantial personal political capital by leading BJP to a series of victories in local elections as well as by-polls. Shiv Sena, on the other hand has been the biggest causality of this growth. There is a growing disenchantment among Sena, regarding a lot of ministers who favour Fadnavis over their own party. Not to mention, BJP has systematically eaten into Sena’s vote share. But above all, the Brahamastra for 2019 Lok Sabha as well as the assembly elections, was announced by the state government in the last week of November 2018. They announced a 16% reservation for Marathas in all state government jobs and colleges. This reservation was announced under the SEBC (Socially and Educationally Backward Class) category. Now this same tactic was used by INC-NCP government at the end of their last term, however it was deemed unconstitutional by the Bombay High Court. UPA also gave reservation to Muslims (5%) in addition to Marathas. This is a master tactic for two primary reasons. First, Marathas are the most politically relevant community in Maharashtra. At any point of time, Vidhan Sabha has at least 40%-50% of its members as Marathas. This is true in every government, weather NDA or UPA. Hence by giving them reservation, the state government has tried to pull them towards NDA. Second, Marathas are important also because apart from being politically relevant, they comprise of more than 30% of state’s population. This adds them to NDA’s vote bank, apart from their traditional Brahmin-Baniya one. However, a lot would depend upon weather it is held constitutional in a court of law. NDA in 2019, according to inside information, may also play the Vidarbha division card again. BJP has long supported the division and with CM himself coming from Nagpur, people feel disappointed that this demand was not meant in last 4 years. That being said, NCP will continue to be strong in its traditional belt of Pune-Kolhapur-Baramati and will largely gain a couple of other seats, that it lost in 2014. INC with its weakened strength will win around Nanded region, mostly due to Ashok Chavan’s own presence. Meanwhile, Shiv Sena, even though strong in Amravati area in addition to its Mumbai presence, will lose a few seats as compared to 2014. Its situation could come down to 5-6 seats if it fights the election alone, however that seems to be a distant possibility. BJP riding on the Mr. Modi’s popularity, in addition to no strong opposition PM candidate and Devendra Fadnavis’s clean image may increase its seats from 2014. Interestingly after allying with AIMIM, Prakash Ambedkar’s BBM seems strong on the Akola seat. He has been a two-time MP from this seat. He has also gained prominence in last one year after coming in spotlight during the Bhima Koregaon violence. AIMIM fighting election with BBM, means isolation of Dalit-Muslim votes, which in turn will hurt UPA on seats with considerable Dalit-Muslim population, as this third front will eat into the secular vote share on each seat. This will be a trend across all seats. There is also chances that Devendra Fadnavis may also dissolve its assembly early so that the polls may be clubbed with Lok Sabha.


All in all, NDA will lose around 10 seats mainly due to Shiv Sena’s weakened presence and farmer protest which was also the primary reason for Raju Shetty’s SWP moving out of the NDA. He has considerable presence in Kolhapur belt. The NDA is expected to win around seats 32 seats (BJP-21, Shiv Sena-10, RPI-1). UPA is expected to win around 15 seats (INC-8, NCP-6, SWP-1). UPA’s gains will mostly come from NCP and INC both gaining and consolidating seats in their stronghold. These seats mostly went to NDA due to Modi Wave. Apart from this BBM’s Prakash Ambedkar, grandson of Dr BR Ambedkar, is likely to win the Akola seat with help of Muslim votes which usually got divided between him and the Congress earlier.


What this means is that in the two most politically relevant states, Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra, NDA combination which won on 73/80 in former and 42/48 in latter, will lose a combined of around 30 seats from 2014. This loss essentially means a loss equivalent to more than a whole of Karnataka. Will they be able to cover it? We shall investigate that aspect, in future editions.  

Friday, November 30, 2018

The Big Bang State: Uttar Pradesh



I am covering the next year’s general election and how each specific state is likely to vote. In order to convey to everyone my observations and predictions (I normally don’t dare to use that word!) for the same, I have divided states into 2 special coverages, for Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra and then a five-part series covering all states other than the two mentioned. UP and Maharashtra have combined 128 seats, that is almost half of what you need to win the general elections. Therefore today, I am conveying to you the first of the two special coverages for the state of Uttar Pradesh.

Firstly, let’s start with Uttar Pradesh. It is commonly said in political corridors that road to Delhi, goes from Lucknow. UP was the state which was primarily responsible for electing Mr. Modi as the PM in the first place. The most important factor in UP’s electoral politics is caste. If you can get your caste equations right, you are going to run away with the prize. The state has massive, 80 Lok Sabha seats. Now this state has 3 major players, BJP, Samajwadi Party (SP) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). Not to forget the numerous smaller players, all of whom have some or the other effect. BJP in 2014, riding on the Modi wave won 71 and its ally Apna Dal (Anupriya faction) won 2, respectively. Since then they have also won a massive 325 seats, with its allies in 2017 assembly elections. They also installed the ever controversial, Mahant Yogi Adityanath as CM as well.  In 2019, The biggest challenge to BJP here is what we call the Mahagathbandhan. The coming together of SP, BSP, RLD (Party led by Ajit Singh, son of former PM Chaudhary Charan Singh) and few regional outfits. If you look at their combined vote share it is far more than BJP. The recent by-polls were biggest example of this. If the recent campaigning in MP, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan elections is any sign, the INC has likely missed this train. Apart from the two traditional bastions of Raebareli and Amethi, represented by Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi, the Mahagathbandhan is not going to leave any seat for the INC. This too is not more than a friendly gesture from Akhilesh Yadav’s side, who is seen as the architect of this grand alliance. The most difficult task for SP and BSP is going to be seat sharing. Mayawati has time and again talked of respectable number of seats. The news coming out as of now is that seat sharing talks have already begun. Induction of smaller parties is left to Akhilesh as it is an accepted fact that Mayawati is not much of a team player. Mayawati’s BSP is likely to get lion’s share of 80 seats which as of now seems to be 36. Ajit Singh’s RLD is likely to be accommodated in 3-4 seats. Muzaffarnagar, Baghpat, Kairana and possibly Mathura are the seats currently being discussed upon. NISHAD Party, whose candidate won the recent by poll in Gorakhpur on SP symbol, is likely to get apart from Gorakhpur, Jaunpur seat as well. Mohd. Ayyub’s Peace party is likely to get one seat in alliance, either Domariyaganj or Sant Kabir Nagar. Apna Dal (Krishna), led by mother of Union Minister Anupriya Patel is also likely to be accommodated in one seat and be fielded against her daughter. They are also looking towards the possibility of SBSP, led by OP Rajbhar, joining them although it seems difficult. Even though he has been attacking his own government, it is unlikely that he will leave NDA. However, they have set aside a 3-4 seats, in case he joins the opposition. Other seats will go to Samajwadi Party, which is likely to get 32-34 seats. The NDA on the other hand seems to be outnumbered as far as voting percentage goes. It is also looking at various caste coalitions, in order to counter the alliance. It already has Apna Dal, a party with considerable Kurmi votebank in Eastern UP. Kurmis comprise of around 12% of state’s population. It was given two seats last time around, Mirzapur and Pratapgarh, both of which were won by it. This time around while it has been asking for 7 seats, BJP likely to give around 2-3 seats to it. Apart from Mirzapur, it is likely to get Robertsganj seat, with considerable Kurmi Population. Pratapgarh is another such seat. BJP’s other ally, Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party, led by OP Rajbhar who is a cabinet minister in the UP government, has also been asking for 5 seats in the alliance. OP Rajbhar who has been critical of his own government, had demands which were allegedly not met by UP government. However, he has continued to be part of NDA and will fight elections with the BJP. SBSP is likely to get 1-2 seats in alliance, Salempur and Ghosi, both of which are Rajbhar dominated areas with their population as high as 35% in these areas. Apart from the above two, there are two groups/parties which have been cosying up to BJP. The first being, Shivpal Yadav’s PSPL and other being Raja Bhaiyya’s Jansatta Dal(JD). The estranged uncle of Akhilesh was recently given the bunglow vacated by Mayawati, for running his newly formed outfit. This also means some sort of backroom talks between him and BJP. He could be asked to field his candidates across all seats and act as vote cutter from SP’s traditional Yadav base. This in turn will help the BJP candidate on that seat. Then comes Raghuraj Pratap Singh or Raja Bhaiyya as he is called by his supporters. The 6-time independent MLA from Kunda, who is seen as the symbol of Sawarn (Upper Caste) politics, left SP after it aligned with BSP. He has a long rivalry with Mayawati, who arrested him under POTA, until the law itself was scrapped. He recently formed Jansatta Dal, his own political party. He is likely to form a post-poll alliance with the BJP. He is a dominant force in Pratapgarh and Kaushambi.

Hence, Mahagathbandhan, will see that in politics, two plus two is not always four. In last assemble elections, two most important factors were first, Muslim Women who voted in large numbers for BJP and secondly the Non-Yadav OBCs and Non-Jatav Dalits voting for BJP, apart from its traditional voter. The state government in coming months is introducing a subdivision in OBC reservation. A division where 27% reservation would further get divided into three subclasses, Backward, Extra Backward and Most Backward with each getting 9% reservation. It is aimed to give better representation to Non-Yadav OBCs. Apart from the fact that the central government has already passed an amendment to give Constitutional status to National Commission of Backward Classes. Same is proposed for the SC reservation, with division likely to divide the reservation in three classes of 7% each. Introduction of issue of Triple Talaq, is again likely to sway Muslim women. Ram Temple issue is again heating up and it will be interesting to see what happens to the Private Member bills that are being brought by Manoj Tiwari in Lok Sabha and Prof. Rakesh Sinha in Rajya Sabha. Now what is the idea of two separate bills? My gut tells me that even if these don’t pass, what these bills will do is that they will set in motion a debate not only in both houses, but also across the country. Any such debate is likely to liven up the poll chances of BJP, if anything. Plus, I have been visiting places and what I can definitely tell is that development work has picked up pace across the state, especially in Alllahabad (Oh sorry! Prayagraj) where there is Kumbh coming up in January. I believe Eastern UP, is likely to back Modi and Yogi once again and with help of its allies, BJP will once again win big. Same could be said about in Awadh region. However, I believe it is going to be really difficult for BJP to repeat 2014 in Western UP. It is likely to lose seats here. BJP had complete support of Jats in 2014. But issues such as reservation and farmer protests, made sure it isn’t the case right now. Ajit Singh is likely to regain some pride, he lost in 2014, after losing his own seat which he had won for 6 times, directly. It will be interesting to see if Naresh Aggarwal is be able to mobilise votes for BJP in the Hardoi-Kannauj-Farrukhabad region. Only one question is left to be answered, what happens to INC? The grand old party will face tough fight once again in UP. Missing the train of alliance, is likely to cost the party big. Rahul Gandhi is likely to face a tough contest from Union Minister, Smriti Irani in Amethi. His toughest fight yet, across his political career. Apart from the its traditional bastions there are very few seats where the party can challenge BJP or alliance candidate. Few seats include Barabanki, Kushinagar, Saharanpur, Farrukhabad and a couple of others. It’s vote share has been a meagre 7% in recent time. However, when fighting alone I believe it can clock a vote share of 10-12 percentage points. This will instead of challenging, help BJP. INC’s primary vote share is going to eat into the vote share of Opposition parties and it can affect 7-8 seats, across the state. One more factor that we need to count is AAP. While it may not affect other places, 2-4 seats which are in National Capital Region or near it are going to be affected. Seats such as Ghaziabad, Gautam Buddh Nagar e.tc. It will be interesting to see how that plays out.       

All in all, I believe BJP and its allies will lose around 20 seats from before, mostly in western UP. NDA is likely to win 53(+- 5) seats (BJP: 51,Allies: 2-3). The opposition despite its efforts is not going to sweep across the state. In grand alliance, BSP likely to win around 10 seats, SP around 12-13 seats, smaller constituents 3-4 seats. INC may also win 2-3 seats which include apart from its traditional bastions, Kushinagar. Shivpal himself could give a strong fight in Firozabad. Raja Bhaiyya could win one or either of two in Pratapgarh and Kaushambi.