The Fourth Lal of Haryana

Haryanvis are, along with Biharis, among the most stereotyped people in the country. But more so, there are famous for their notorious dynasties. It is the land of ‘’Lals” and their lals(children). Devi Lal, Bansi Lal and Bhajan Lal are three most prominent former CMs who have left behind a legacy. BJP came to power in 2014 for the first time in the state riding on the coattails of Prime Minister Modi as well as due to anti-incumbency sentiment against a decade-long old government which had earned notoriety for being corrupt and focusing on only select pockets for development. A non-Jat became chief minister when BJP selected Manohar Lal Khattar — the fourth Lal — to head the government. He faced fierce opposition from outside the government and a muted resistance from within his party’s state unit. Barring a few in Sangh circles, he wasn’t well known even in the BJP let alone among the masses who hadn’t heard of him before the election. Everyone was betting against him and wishing for him to stumble, fail and fall. He did fail. Repeatedly. At least that’s how everyone saw it. Soon after assuming charge, he came under fire for how his government handled violent followers of Rampal who had defied court orders of arrest and was hiding in his ashram in Hisar. In early 2016, the Jat reservation movement which turned violent and claimed more than 30 lives, almost did him in. Chief Minister Khattar had barely recovered from that, when the mayhem unleashed by followers of Dera Sacha Sauda in Panchkula in early 2018 again seemed to prove his detractors right. They again bayed for his blood. But the party bosses in Delhi kept their faith in Khattar. Until last year, Khattar didn’t seem to be in control. The only thing that was going in his favour was his clean image. He had put an end to all kinds of corruption, which Haryana was infamous for. But it wasn’t enough. In fact, it was proving counter-productive especially among the party cadre. Given the lack of ideological or party loyalty, leaders and people flock to a party in the hope they will get personal favours when in power. But Chief Minister Khattar was in no mood to dole out government jobs to the party faithful or even entertain requests from ministers or his MLAs for transfers or contracts for their loyalists.

But soon Khattar’s fortunes took a turn for the better. In December 2018, BJP swept mayoral polls in five big municipalities of Rohtak, Hisar, Karnal, Panipat and Yamunanagar. It was truly an inflection point. Those who were sure that Chief Minister Khattar will be a one-term wonder, started realising the gravity of one past incident. It dawned on them how gravely the violence during Jat quota agitation has polarised the state even in areas where Jats had minimal presence. One month later, it won the Jind by-poll with a huge margin in Jat heartland. It fielded a non-Jat against Jat candidates ran by Chautalas and Congress. The demographics did the rest. But it wasn’t just that. Yes, polarisation was the biggest factor but there was more, something which analysts had also overlooked. Khattar’s war on corruption may have been resented by his own party men the most but it was starting to bear fruit on the ground. Just before the Jind election, the state government announced results for 18,000 Group-D jobs and Jind came third with over 1,600 applicants qualifying. In fact, the areas which bagged the most number of jobs were not BJP strongholds. The party had lost there in 2014. This proved to the people that the jobs were being given in a transparent manner. In his five-year tenure, Khattar government has given more sarkari jobs than what the state governments of Hooda and Chautalas did in the last 15 years before 2014. How could no one, from the shrewdest seasoned politicians to wily political operatives who stayed in power for years, crack this easy puzzle: that this could work wonders in a state crazy for sarkari jobs? It took a novice like Khattar to understand its importance. Because these vacancies are filled in a totally transparent manner, people from lower and poor sections of the society have benefitted the most. With bribe culture gone and merit the criterion, students have started focusing on studying rather than worrying about arranging money for cooling palms of corrupt middlemen or running behind politicians wasting time. Coaching classes are coming up everywhere. The amount of goodwill Khattar has earned among masses with just one move, especially among the youth, has only one parallel that I can think of: when Devi Lal had started monthly pension for the old-age folks in 1977. Khattar has also ended the culture of regionalism — favouring one’s hometown district or those areas which vote for you — over others. When people see public works being done in constituencies which didn’t vote for the BJP in 2014, it strikes them as something of an alien concept. Now, there is no waiting for someone from your area to become chief minister to see vikas. A close friend working these days with Government in Haryana who was especially biased against the ruling party, was recently praising it for the implementation of iconic Beti Bachao, Beti Padhao scheme. I was smiling. And so is Manohar Lal.

While the ‘Aaya Ram, Gaya Ram’ culture is alive and kicking, Chief Minister Khattar has introduced a new governance model to Haryanvis: free of corruption and graft, which works for all parts of the state’s citizens based on their needs and not on their political affiliations. It is due to this culture that those politicians, especially dynasties, which thrived on regionalism or personal loyalties, have been dealt a body blow. Most importantly, he has rid the state government of image where it was seen to be run by the real estate tycoons. No wonder that Khattar is all set to return for a second term and this time with an even much bigger majority. The opposition is merely fighting for relevance, not to win. Of course, the BJP has been able to achieve it all by polarising the state along Jat-non-Jat lines, however strongly it may deny that fact. This has been the price that the state has paid for Chief Minister Khattar’s good governance. He has cleaned up a lot of mess, but Haryana has got infected with this deadly virus like never. One hopes that in the next five years, the state gets itself rid of this poison of caste tensions and rises to new highs. There are signs all over that this caste tension has reduced significantly in recent times with Jats voting openly for BJP in recently concluded General Elections, where the saffron party won all 10 Lok Sabha seats. Including the Jatland seats of Hisar, Rohtak and Sonipat.

The Masterclass of Dominant vs The Others

Ordinarily, if the country is less than a few months away from three assembly elections, particularly if a state as significant as Maharashtra is among them, one can expect a fair bit of buzz building up in the political and media circles. If past trends are anything to go by, now would roughly be the time when a few theatre-turned-cinema artistes would begin to write a letter or two decrying some perceived injustice or the other and a few other ‘eminent historians’ and ‘public intellectuals’ would return some of the awards that they had won during more ‘secular’ times. Thankfully, the nation has been spared such theatrics this time around. Even the major political opposition party, the Congress, has restricted its attacks to acerbic missiles around the state of the economy and has not really shown any inclination to get its hands fully dirty. The internal turbulence in the opposition and fairly clear verdicts from all the three states in the general election have made the opposition and its larger ecosystem almost concede defeat to the BJP.

However, for those interested in a more than casual analysis, the elections of Maharashtra, Haryana and Jharkhand will represent a critical step in the political project that the BJP, under the Modi-Shah duo, has effected in the country over the last five years. The genesis of this initiative can be said to have been in the state of Uttar Pradesh, in the run-up to the 2014 general election, when Amit Shah was sent to the heartland as its state in-charge. In UP, Shah managed to revive his party in a spectacular fashion, by winning it 71 of the state’s 80 seats. He did this by orchestrating a rainbow coalition of castes --- prizing away micro-castes (non-Yadav OBCs and non-Jatav Dalits) from their larger caste groupings and adding them onto the already existing social alliances of the BJP. Of course, he was helped by the image and oratory of Narendra Modi but at the end of the 2014 general election, it was evident that, as an electoral strategy, Shah’s plan of creating a social coalition of non-dominant castes had worked.

The elections of Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Haryana quickly followed and the strategy was replicated in all three. It needs to be noted that in all these states, the BJP had been in power only intermittently and never on its own strength. The polity of Maharashtra had come to be dominated by the Marathas, Haryana’s by the Jats and Jharkhand had never seen a non-tribal chief minister since its formation. The Modi-Shah duo built their social alliances against this tide and after unprecedented victories in the polls, reinforced these tactics with their selection of chief ministers from the non-dominant communities. While it may seem that the Modi-Shah strategy has paid off today, the move was fraught with risks at the time. Both Fadnavis and Khattar bore the brunt of the wrath of the dominant groups (no doubt egged on by the opposition) in the form of reservation protests, which nearly cost them their chairs, and their party, the state. Also, this move was in stark contrast to the practice followed rather successfully by the Congress and its allies for decades in Maharashtra and, post the rise of Hooda, in Haryana. The strategy was to target the most electorally dominant caste and combine it with their traditional minority vote bank in order to create formidable social arithmetic, which almost guaranteed a victory in the face of a fractured opposition. Essentially, the path that the BJP chose to follow was far more difficult and required a herculean effort from the party and its larger ideological organization. Not only did it require the devolution of power into multiple social groups, it also involved the identification of a larger pool of leaders from the targeted groups. Not to mention the challenges of balancing a wider range of interests, which can, even at the best of times, be mutually conflicting. Once this narrative has been set, including in all three states, not only has there been a solidification of existing caste alliances, there is also evidence of the BJP’s expansion into the dominant caste groups.

The mass migration of a host of Maratha satraps into the party, its inroads into the Jat bastions of Haryana and UP and the addition of Hindu tribals in Jharkhand to the saffron coalition only point to the fact that the gambles of 2014 seem to have paid off. It is also significant to note what the reasons of such a migration could be. Certainly, the social schemes of the NDA government and the last-mile delivery achieved by the Prime Minister’s emphasis on implementation would have had its part to play. Even so, the historic cultural profiles of the Marathas and Jats when combined with the patterns of the fissuring of the tribal vote also point to the growing public resonance of the nationalist and Indic value systems represented by the Prime Minister and his party. It remains to be seen whether this result will be replicated in the assembly elections, when Narendra Modi is not on the ticket and more local factors begin to take precedence. There will certainly be more emphasis on the performance of the respective Chief Ministers, candidate selections and local governance issues than there was in the general elections (which the opposition unwittingly made out to be about Modi). In a sense, the voting patterns from the assembly polls will serve as an indicator of the long-term cohesiveness of the BJP’s social alliance, especially when it does not have the overt appeal of Narendra Modi to bind it. If the party succeeds in holding onto its newer and more expansive base, then the signs will be ominous for the opposition, especially with the Bihar polls coming up next year and the UP elections looming in the medium term. A repeat of the clean sweep in October followed by wins in Bihar and UP (the result in Delhi notwithstanding) will signify a quantum change in the political and social narrative of the country. Such victories could also open up this template to be replicated in the areas where the party has not managed to make significant inroads yet, specifically states in the south like Tamil Nadu. Perhaps more importantly, it will also represent a major step forward in the larger ideological battle to move the Indian polity towards one driven by Indic values. 

I’ll specifically be covering in next blog how Fadnavis and Khattar have done in their states.

Government and Structural Reforms: Post 2014

Structural reforms are costing him political capital – and the economy some amount of growth. Growth is down and in trouble because cronyism will no longer help rescue firms in loan default to recover quickly; there is no great advantage in remaining small or in the unorganised sector after the advent of the goods and services tax (GST) and incentivisation for formalisation of employment; the scope for speed money in transactions with government is rapidly reducing; the digital push is forcing more and more small businesses, even vegetable sellers and kirana merchants, to accept non-cash payments or risk losing business; the real estate sector, once the Gangotri of corruption and black money, is learning to clean up its books, especially after the legislation of the Real Estate Regulation Act (RERA); and corrupt businessmen, who once demanded the right to hire and fire labour, are now finding that they themselves are being fired by being pushed to the insolvency court, the National Company Law Tribunal. Some of his schemes may have flopped or misfired, others may have met with resounding success and yet others may be a work-in-progress in the second half of 2019, but there is little doubt that the trajectory is set.

If someone were to ask Mr. Narendra Modi, at the end of his second term as Prime Minister in 2024, what is your Government’s lasting achievement, there could be many answers. It could be about poverty reduction, cutting down corruption and black money, taking the Indian economy to the $5 trillion level, improving ease of doing business rankings, or many such things. However, if one were to ask the same question at the end of first term and at the start of his second, one can reasonably assert this: no one has done more to clean up the system than Modi in India’s post-Independence history. The one running theme in almost all of Modi’s major actions and schemes has been structural reforms inside the system.

Narendra Modi has genuinely been for India, the Reformer in chief. Probably biggest one since Independence. Structural changes add costs to doing business in the short run, especially for those who were surviving by feeding off the udders of a corrupt state. Now that those udders are drying up, individuals and businesses have to adjust to the new realities. Growth will revive once the mindset change occurs, and people see transparency and honesty as better ways to do business. The Government’s structural clean-up strategy can be broken up into three broad categories: physical clean-up of our natural surroundings, financial clean-up of the banking and related ecosystems, and transparent policies that prevent the build-up of more opportunities for corruption and illegal wealth generation in future.

Physical Structural Clean-Ups

The most obvious and costliest attempt at structural change of the physical environment relates to the Swachh Bharat campaign. It started out as a general clean-up exercise involving all public places, with political leaders showing up on TV channels with brooms in hand, but the scheme’s parameters were quickly focused on building toilets and making India open defecation-free (ODF). According to the Swachh Bharat Mission portal, by the third week of July 2019, some 624 districts (out of 725) and 5.73 lakh villages had declared themselves open defecation-free, thanks to the building of close to 10 crore household toilets, not to speak of public conveniences. The next big deal in terms of cleaning up the physical environment relates to a policy decision to incentivise cleaner cooking fuels. Under the Ujjwala scheme, around 10 crore poor households have been given gas connections and this has enabled an extension in cooking gas connections from 55 per cent of households in 2014 to over 90 per cent as in mid-2019.

The third physical change is in the Ganga, the holiest and yet one of the dirtiest rivers in India. While plans to clean up India’s most sacred river have been afoot since 1985, and the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government in 2011 launched the National Mission for Clean Ganga, the river just got worse and worse. Till 2014, barely Rs 4,000 crore had been spent. After NDA government restructured the project as Namami Gange, the focus on stopping effluent inflows into the river, supplemented by riverfront development and surface cleaning of the Ganga, is beginning to bear some visible results. The ghats are being spruced up, and even though the river is not yet fit for bathing, the 254 projects worth Rs 24,000 crore sanctioned for cleaning it up will start to bear results a couple of years down the line. The clear gain is the political commitment to clean up the river, and the build-up of public awareness on the issue.

The focus on a clean-up of the physical environment includes two other elements, one being the increasing emphasis on solar power, and the other being the proposed move to gradually eliminate internal combustion-driven automobiles, which use petrol and diesel, and replace them with electric vehicles (EVs) by 2030. In solar, for the first time ever, capacity additions outpaced other forms of power-generation in 2017. The cumulative solar power capacity reached 20 GW that year. As far as automobiles are concerned, in the initial phase, three-wheelers are to become fully electric by 2023, and two-wheelers below 150 cc are to go fully electric by 2025. The automobile industry is kicking up a hell of a fuss over these stiff deadlines, but the direction is clearly right. India’s urban air, now one of the biggest causes of concern, will start getting cleaner after 2025. India’s energy sources will get cleaner in the years ahead, but whether this will make our air substantially cleaner or merely prevent it from getting worse depends on how well the policy framework needed for cleaning up India’s air and water works is backed by adequate funding.

Financial Structural Clean-Ups

The Modi government’s financial clean-up act involves a handful of approaches. One is to focus inwards, at government subsidy pay-outs to citizens to prevent leakages. The second is to bring more and more people and businesses into the tax net by extending the goods and services tax (GST). Third, the attempt is to put fly-by-night shell companies to pasture. Fourth, the government is cleaning up bank balance-sheets by both recapitalising them and by pushing defaulter companies towards the bankruptcy courts, thus enabling recovery of some of the money lent, faster. Fifth, it is going after economic fugitives who flee the country after failing to pay up banks. And sixth, it has closed some of the tax loopholes that allowed round-tripping of funds and gave unintended tax breaks to investors bringing in money from abroad. Double-taxation agreements with Mauritius, Cyprus and Singapore have already been reworked to enable this.

Clearly, the most successful clean-up has been the extension of the direct benefits transfer (DBT) scheme to more and more subsidies. At last count, the government was running nearly 439 subsidy schemes, and direct payments to beneficiary bank accounts are believed to have saved around 90 thousand crore every year, according to former FM Arun Jaitley. For example, at the ground level, a simple ruse like neem-coating of urea has reduced the diversion of this highly-subsidised nitrogenous fertiliser to negligible amounts, and farmers no longer find it a problem procuring the amounts they genuinely need.

The launch of GST in July 2017 may not have been the smoothest of affairs, nor is the current tax structure optimal, with multiple tax rates and exemptions that effectively allow some categories of taxpayers to escape the net. But with over one crore registrations, and tax collections now crossing Rs 1 lakh crore a month with some consistency, improved monitoring of compliance will make it tougher to evade the tax net. As big GST payers get input tax credits only if their suppliers are also GST payers, over time the pressure to comply will become self-fulfilling. A related move involves eliminating shell companies that are often used to evade tax. They are being systematically weeded out. Last year, some 2.25 lakh shell companies which had not filed tax returns for two years running were put under the scanner, preparatory to deregistration and exit.

Some of the costs incurred in cleaning up have been huge. Over the last two years, the Modi government has pumped in massive amounts of capital into public sector banks. As at the end of March 2019, the government had recapitalised them to the tune of nearly Rs 2 lakh crore, and this year’s budget offers another dollop of Rs 70,000 crore – making it the biggest balance-sheet clean-up drive in India’s 50-year-old public sector banking history.

The write-off of bad loans does not, however, mean relief for borrowers, who are being taken to the cleaners by banks and other lenders. The Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) has been used like a blunt instrument to force corporate defaulters to either pay up or lose their companies to new owners. Ever since the IBC came into force in end-2016, some 1,858 cases of loan default were admitted for resolution by March 2019. The most important gain is time for recovery. Before the IBC came into being, the average time taken to resolve bankruptcy cases was six years; after IBC this came down to 317 days. Before the IBC came into being, the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Board of India (IBBI), the body tasked with nurturing the new bankruptcy ecosystem, reckoned that banks and lenders recovered roughly 22 per cent of their dues; after IBC this recovery has gone up to 43 per cent. In 2018-19, banks recovered nearly Rs 70,000 crore from defaulting companies that ended up at the NCLT. This year, if the Essar Steel, Bhushan Power and some more resolutions find fruition, similar amounts could easily be recovered. The Fugitive Economic Offenders Bill, passed in 2018, allows the government to take over the properties of absconders in India. Under this law, Vijay Mallya has already been declared an economic fugitive, and Nirav Modi and Mehul Choksi are fighting hard in Indian courts through their lawyers to avoid having their assets taken over in India.

This must rank as one of the biggest clean-up successes of NDA government under Mr. Modi, for lenders can exert pressure on borrowers only if politicians do not pressure them to help out crony businessmen.

Internal Structural Clean-Ups

The third prong of the Modi strategy – to gradually eliminate opportunities for corruption by increasing transparency in government procurements and allotment of scarce natural resources through auctions – is now slowly becoming the norm. Coal mines and spectrum have been auctioned in recent years only through an auction process, and increasingly government purchases are being made online through a cashless, paperless and contact-less process. The last is most important, for corruption happens only when sellers have to contact the government department for payments on supplies made.

According to an Economic Times report on GeM (the Government e-Marketplace), the government’s e-procurement platform now has 2.5 lakh vendors and 37,000 buyers from different government departments and public sector undertakings, offering over 10 lakh products and 12,798 services. Over the last three years since 2016, transactions worth Rs 32,000 crore went through GeM, and the target for 2019-20 is Rs 1 lakh crore. We are talking of an Amazon or Alibaba being built quietly, and no one has even noticed its potential to revolutionise e-procurement and reduce corruption and speed money payments to buyers. Between auctions to sell scarce national resources like spectrum and coal mines, and GeM, we are talking about a complete clean-up of the essential process of government interactions with sellers.

But what does one do with the vice-like grip of the bureaucracy, which is often a key source of corruption and non-transparent functioning? Given Mr. Modi’s dependence on the bureaucracy to deliver on his social and economic goals, how can any clean-up work if the people managing the show have questionable antecedents or poor efficiency levels? Government has been moving steadily here as well. In the last five years, the government has quietly eased out more than 300 bureaucrats – an annual rate of over 60 – using his power to prematurely retire them. After scanning the service records of more than 36,000 Group A and 82,000 Group B officers, 312 of them were retired prematurely. Simultaneously, in the last financial year, the government began lateral inductions to the bureaucracy, with nine experts being given five-year contracts at the level of joint secretary. This year, some 40 more could be inducted at levels of joint secretary and below.

Government under Mr. Modi is clearly moving slowly but surely to bring about structural reforms in the house even as he focuses on cleaning up the rest of the country. In everything we must not forget that structural reforms are ruthless, costs are borne upfront meanwhile rewards come much later. Government of India, under Mr. Modi, is ready to show the spine much similar to how Mr. Narsimha Rao did. Of course, that was under obligation and this is very much by choice!

The Nehru-Gandhis’ Obsession

While writing this piece, I was reminded of those set of events which eventually led to Jawaharlal Nehru’s successor and India’s second Prime Minister, Lal Bahadur Shastri being not allowed to move into the PM’s official residence – Teen Murti Bhavan – owing to Indira Gandhi’s insistence that the house be converted into a memorial for her father.

Teen Murti Bhavan, a verdant 30-acre property where peacocks still roam and mynas make their music, had been the residence of the commander-in-chief of the Indian armed forces during British rule, and Jawaharlal Nehru had moved there only in August 1948, for the first time occupying a space far grander than the bungalows other ministers in his government had (he had lived in one of those bungalows until then).

The past has a strange way of impinging on the present. This 1964 incident instantly drew me back into the hubbub of the Lok Sabha poll campaign, bringing to mind Rahul Gandhi’s comment about the armed forces not being the PM’s “personal property”.

The truth is that with Rahul as a contender for power, the past has a bearing certainly on the present, but on India’s future too. Rahul was chosen to contest the Amethi Lok Sabha seat in 2004 because he was a member of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty, and he was later appointed Congress general secretary, vice-president and president on the same grounds, becoming the fifth member of the clan to occupy the party’s top post. If he’s making a claim to power today, it’s again on account of his being the son, grandson and great-grandson of former PMs.

If lineage and the record of that lineage is a person’s calling card and family experience the sparkling point on his CV, then surely, in that same pack will be found by his political rivals other cards which would help them pose a challenge to the dynasty-led party.

And if Congress’s assertions are about Nehru’s vision, Indira’s will and Rajiv’s ushering of India into the computer era, an opponent’s offensive would be centred around their flaws and foibles. Moreover, if the family’s been in power, directly or indirectly (counting the terms of Congress PMs like PV Narasimha Rao and Manmohan Singh and non-Congress ones like Chandrashekhar, HD Deve Gowda and IK Gujral) for over 50 years out of 72, an audit is both inevitable and imperative.

That’s why those who are strenuously objecting to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s, and BJP’s, attacks on the Nehru-Gandhis are either missing the point or attempting to give credence to the dynasty’s misconceptions and denials.

The Nehru-Gandhis and the so-called ‘left-liberal’ social-political-intellectual elite they’ve patronised are more than approving of a discussion on the dynasty’s legacy so long as it doesn’t get inconvenient. When Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra talk of their forebears’ contribution to India and their sacrifices, their admirers want more of it. When the Marxists, who’ve had a neat and successful pact with the Congress establishment on the capture of institutions and creation of national narratives, hold forth on the Nehruvian order and how it nourished institutions, the inheritors are delighted.

The ‘cultural synthesis’ of the Marxists and the ruling establishment saw to it that the Nehru-Gandhis virtually monopolised free India’s consciousness. Textbooks were written to maximise their role in building India, while that of other eminent Indians was minimised; roads, places, landmarks and institutions named after members of the dynasty further amplified this image; and things reached a point where the dynasts were described, in strictly feudal terms ironic for those who swore by socialism, as India’s First Family.

Revolutionaries, reformists and other Congress stalwarts of the freedom movement like Patel were made to appear smaller, and if Mahatma Gandhi still remained symbolically tall, it was because invoking his name – and surname – was hugely advantageous.

Now, neither Rahul nor Priyanka can be blamed as individuals for where they were born. But they haven’t had issues with people’s “obsession” with their family if the result is abundant acclaim and applause, and there’s no denying the dynasty acquired, in time, a reputation for rewarding sycophancy and punishing non-conformists like Narasimha Rao.

They themselves aren’t known for linguistic restraint either. In his first speech as Congress president, Rahul referred to VD Savarkar as someone who kowtowed to the British, and he’s kept up this criticism; Congress on Twitter labelled Savarkar a “traitor”. Rahul’s freedom to offer his interpretation of history is complete. But then how is it such a monstrosity if, the moment Rahul talks of India entering an era of dictatorship, someone reminds him of an era of constitutional dictatorship? Or if the minute he talks of an individual assuming far too much centrality in decision-making, DK Barooah’s “Indira is India, India is Indira” comment is pulled out?

Or if, whenever Rahul mentions poverty, he’s told about a slogan raised nearly 50 years ago which had promised to end “garibi”? If national security’s an issue and 1971 a year to talk about, then 1962 can’t be too far behind; and if Hindu-Muslim tensions are up for discussion, then rivals can hardly be expected to help Congress skirt issues like Shah Bano, the ban on ‘Satanic Verses’ and reopening of the Babri Masjid’s locks. The same goes for a slur like “traitor”, thrown about carelessly by both sides.

The level of discourse must indeed be debated, and criticism of crude remarks is only fair. What isn’t is the righteous indignation all around. Regardless of the outcome of these elections, there’s every reason for the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty to have been a subject of debate during the campaign.

In the Middle of Everything: Bihar, Jharkhand, Haryana and Punjab

This is the, third of my five-part series, covering the next year’s Lok Sabha elections. In previous edition, I covered most of the states in Eastern Belt including West Bengal, Odisha and all states in the North Eastern region of India. This edition will cover the states of Bihar, Jharkhand, Punjab and Haryana. All these states combined, have 77 Lok Sabha seats.

BIHAR

It is a state which after UP, Maharashtra, West Bengal has highest number of Lok Sabha seats for taking. It was among the states that were completely swept in Modi Wave by BJP led NDA in 2014. In last general elections, NDA which comprised of Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP) apart from BJP, won 31/40 seats in Bihar in 2014. This was in contrast to last 20 years, when NDA always had Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) as a partner in Bihar. Apart from these players, you have Lalu Yadav’s RJD, now led ably by his son Tejaswi Yadav, is primary opposition party. Before 2019, a lot of political realignment is expected to happen. Tejaswi Yadav, is in talks to create a Mahagathbandhan like UPA, to fight NDA in 2019. This is likely to comprise apart from RJD, INC, Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustan Awam Morcha (HAM). RLSP also joined UPA, because he didn’t get respectable number of seats in NDA. This was due to JD(U) joining NDA this time around. Kushwaha along with another member Sharad Yadav, who is a veteran himself, and has floated Loktantrik Janata Dal (LJD) is in same league. Speculation is also rife that RLSP and LJD could merge to create a new entity. This would help both Sharad Yadav and Upendra Kushwaha, as both are former JD(U) men who don’t see eye to eye with Nitish Kumar, the incumbent CM. This merged entity has been offered a much more respectable number of seats by UPA. Independent MP, Pappu Yadav is also likely to be part of this alliance from INC quota. His wife Ranjeeta Ranjan is already a sitting MP from Supaul on INC ticket. Other than this former JNUSU President Kanhaiya Kumar is likely to be part of alliance from Begusarai on a CPI ticket. BSP can also be accommodated on one seat. As far the NDA is concerned, it is likely to consist of JD(U), LJP apart from BJP. One more party, which has emerged in recent times in Bihar is Mukesh Sahni’s Vikasheel Insaan Party (VIP). It is reportedly in talks with both NDA as well as UPA. It has considerable clout among NISHADs which have presence in 14 Lok Sabha seats. It is also to be noted that most of the current legislators of RLSP except Kushwaha himself, one MP and two MLAs in Legislative assemblies, are seen with NDA and are unlikely to leave it. They could be accommodated on JD(U) tickets.

In recent times, clout of BJP has suffered in Bihar since 2014. That is why it was keen on an alliance with its long-time partner, JDU. This is where Sushaasan Babu comes in. Especially if BJP is to counter the rainbow of coalition is being formed under RJD by Tejaswi Yadav. Nitish Kumar across all his 6 terms as CM has been able to create a separate Nitish Kumar Vote bank for himself. This vote bank is for the secular, people friendly CM who has been able to transform Jungle raj into a developing state. Something that very few leaders have achieved in last seventy years. So, even though his Kurmi Vote bank is only 2% of the state, his own vote bank pushes that figure to at-least 15-20%. Even in 2014 when JDU fought elections alone and won only two seats, its vote share was a good 18%. However, it is also to be noted that JDU’s secular image has taken a little of bit of a hit in recent times. Especially when he aligned with Lalu Yadav and a year later took a U-turn again to form government with BJP. JDU also got a boost recently when Prashant Kishor, political analyst who helped win Modi in 2014, joined JDU as its National Vice-President. Tejaswi Yadav, on the other hand, has been steadfastly moving towards a coalition that is bound to reduce affect NDA seats in 2014. Law and Order has become a major issue in recent times. All in all, NDA (BJP- 14, JDU- 12, LJP-4,) is expected to win around 30 seats in 2019. UPA (RJD-5, INC-2, Others- 3) on the other hand is expected to win around 10 seats this time around. Among all states, NDA seems much stronger this time around in Bihar even more than 2014.

JHARKHAND

In recent times, after few turbulent years post separation from Bihar in 2000, this state has been a stronghold of BJP. In 2014, BJP won 12/14 Lok Sabha seats that were there for taking. While INC was not able to win any seat, Shibu Soren’s Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) was only able to retain 2 seats in stronghold area. While a fourth small player, Babulal Marandi’s Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (JVM) could not win either. In this state as well, a rainbow coalition is being formed of JMM, INC, JVM and RJD under UPA. This is likely to be a cacophonous equation for BJP. NDA is likely to comprise BJP and All Jharkhand Students’ Union led by Sudesh Mahto. In 2019, seat sharing is going to be a big headache for UPA. It has to accommodate apart from regular parties, RJD and possibly a candidate of RLSP/LJD from Bihar, which wants the Hazaribagh Seat. Raghubar Das is facing a lot of criticism in the state and opposition unity is going to hurt BJP in Jharkhand. All in all, NDA is expected to win 6 seats (BJP-5, AJSU-1), down from 12 it won in 2014. UPA is expected to win the other 8 seats (JMM-3, INC-4, JVM-1).

PUNJAB

 This state has a habit of surprising everyone. In the peak of Modi Wave when NDA won everything across the Hindi-Heartland, NDA could not even win half of seats of the 13 seats in the state. On the other hand, AAP (Aam Aadmi Party), a party not even a year old won 4 seats in the state. INC won other 4 seats in the state, with Capt. Amrinder Singh, who is now the CM, defeating Union Finance Minister Arun Jaitley. This time around, I think there are very few surprises on offer. Like it did in 2017 assembly elections, INC is likely to sweep across the state. The other NDA constituent, Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) which was led by Prakash Singh Badal, 8-time CM of state, won 4 seats in 2014. This time around after being routed in assembly elections, it is expected to be routed again. The Firozpur MP of SAD has already left the party. It is a stronghold of party and he had been a 3-time MP. But speculation is that Sukhbir Badal, Prakash Badal’ son and SAD President, is ready to fight from this seat and that’s why the sitting MP left. He has been MP from the Faridkot seat, near the Firozpur seat. There is a revolt just around the corner in Akali Dal. It expected to not win any seat, apart from the traditional Badal family seats. AAP is in tartars after doing well in 2014. Two of its four MP have been suspended. Also whole of the state unit has revolted against Kejriwal, which means AAP has weakened a lot over last couple of years. What this means on ground is that it is expected to find it very difficult in 2019. INC’s revival after drubbing it received in 2014, started from Punjab in 2017. It is expected to continue to do better under Capt. Amrinder Singh. All in all, NDA is expected to win 3 seats (SAD-2, BJP-1), INC is expected to win around 9 seats in the state up from 4 it won in 2014. AAP is expected to win 1 seat, due to weakened presence in the state. It will also not be surprising that AAP fails to open account and INC touches double digit.

HARYANA   

It is a complex state which has many players. Primary regional party in state, apart from the traditional National parties, is OP Chautala’s INLD (Indian National Lok Dal). It was previously part of NDA but left NDA some time back. OP Chautala, former CM of Haryana, is son of former Deputy PM, Chaudhary Devilal. For 2019, it had aligned with Mayawati’s BSP, but latter broke the alliance and is now in alliance with RK Saini’s party. Primary party which has ruled Haryana has been INC, led by Bhupendra Singh Hooda. However, BJP has in recent years been able to win the state. In 2014, BJP won 7 of the 10 seats in Haryana. INC won its traditional stronghold of Rohtak. While INLD won 2 seats in Hisar region. INLD however, due to being divided in two factions has weakened in recent times. This will directly help both INC and BJP. There is anti-incumbency against the Khattar government regarding a lot of social issues as well as Law and Order problem. But what BJP has been able to do in recent years in Haryana is polarisation of Non-Jat Votes. This will help it overcome the anti-incumbency in state. Weakling of INLD along with PM Modi’s charisma is likely to help BJP survive a few seats in Haryana. Jind by poll was the biggest example of this, where for the first time a BJP won the seat. This was due to division on Jat votes among JJP, INC and INLD. The division of INLD could break its back forever. There is more sympathy for Dushyant Chautala’s JJP, which could retain the Hisar seat. Kuldeep Bishnoi, son of former CM Bhajanlal, who floated HJC and allied with BJP has merged with INC. JJP will eat into vote-share of both national parties but majorly INLD and in that situation will help BJP, emerge as single largest party. Even with anti-incumbency against state government, it will do well to retain 7 seats in the state. INC is expected to win 2 seats, this time around. INLD is likely to not win due to division of votes by JJP and is likely to not win any seat. JJP could win Hisar, its stronghold, that too with a lot of difficulties.

So, of the 77 Lok Sabha seats up for grab, NDA is expected to win 46 seats (BJP- 26, SAD-3, AJSU-1, JDU- 12, LJP-4,) while UPA is expected to win 29 seats (INC-17, RJD-5, Others- 7). AAP and JJP are expected to win 1 seat each.

Whose Sun will Rise in the East? West Bengal, Odisha, North Eastern States (7 sisters+ Sikkim)

This is the, second of my five-part series, covering the next year’s Lok Sabha elections. In previous edition, I looked at all the Union Territories including Delhi and the State of Jammu and Kashmir. This edition will cover the state of West Bengal, Odisha and all North Eastern States which include Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Manipur, Tripura, Nagaland, Mizoram, Sikkim. All these states combined have 88 Lok Sabha seats.

WEST BENGAL

This state has always been the first place where the revolutions begin. People familiar with the Indian National Movement would certify to it. West Bengal was the bastion of CPI(M) for almost four decades. Jyoti Basu is the second longest serving CM of any state in India, first being PK Chamling of Sikkim. But to hold onto a state like Bengal, speaks volumes of influence CPM had in the state. However, everything changed when Mamata Bannerjee led All India Trinamool Congress (AITMC) breached this fortress after four decades. Now she herself is in a similar position like Jyoti Basu (sort of!). She has managed to hold Bengal and has been winning election after election, from Panchayat to Parliament. West Bengal has 42 Lok Sabha seats. After UP and Maharashtra, it is the third biggest state in terms of Lok Sabha seats. INC’s golden days were during Pt. Nehru’s era. Post that it was delegated to the second place by Jyoti Basu’s CPM. In recent years during 2009 Lok Sabha, AITMC was a constituent of UPA and won 19 seats along side INC which won 6. However, in 2014 Didi, dumped INC and won a historic 34/42 Lok Sabha seats. INC won 4 seats and CPM and BJP both won 2 each. In recent times, where Left front and INC have been at a nadir, BJP has used that space and is now the principle opposition party in the state. That being said, Didi is still the force majeure in the state. BJP was boosted in recent times when TMC’s master strategist and number two in party, Mukul Roy, joined the saffron outfit. This was a big boost for the party. It is mostly targeting the tribal areas and non-Bengali population in the state. It is likely to make big strides in the state this time around. It is likely to win seats in North Bengal and a few seats in South Bengal. Among the two seats that BJP won last time around, Darjeeling seat is heavily affected by Gorkha Morcha, which is now backing Mamata Bannerjee, unlike last time when it backed BJP. INC has declined from last time and is likely to lose seats from 4 it won in 2014. CPM is almost finished in Bengal. It won two seats last time around. It is likely to not win any seat this time around. Also, the speculation is rife that the all mercurial Dada, Former Indian Captain Sourav Ganguly, could join BJP this time around before polls. BJP had offered him ticket in 2014 as well, which he had refused. But since then, on one side he has assumed presidentship of CAB and a more social role in state while on the other BJP has also made strides in the state. Him joining is going to give BJP a mercurial leader in Bengal, something which they have been missing. So, in Bengal, it could be a battle of Didi vs Dada.

All in all, AITMC is likely to win around 28 seats this time around. It is on the back of Mamata Bannerjee’s popularity in the state. BJP is going to be the biggest gainer, as far as seats are concerned. Although it is expected to lose the Darjeeling seat, it will gain big and is expected to win around 10-11 seats this time around. INC is likely to win 2-3 seats, in and around its stronghold of Maldaha region. CPM is expected to draw a blank this time around. However, situation could change if there is a pre-poll alliance between the CPM and Congress party. If that happens, it can propel the alliance to win 6-7 seats on its own. Thereby majorly denting Trinamool Congress.  

NORTH EASTERN STATES (Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Manipur, Tripura, Nagaland, Mizoram, Sikkim)

These 8 above mentioned states combined form the North Eastern region of India. Government of India in 2014 had formed a separate ministry for the development of North Eastern region. There are combined 25 Lok Sabha seats across the 8 states. However, majority of the them, 14 to be precise, fall in the state of Assam. It is a state which for 15 years had a Congress government under Tarun Gogoi. However, BJP led NDA was able to unseat him in 2016. In 2014, BJP won 7 of the 14 seats for the first time. Subsequently, Prafulla Mahanta’s Assom Gana Parishad (AGP) and Bodoland People’s Party (BPP) joined it as partners. This is the lot that will fight elections together and comprise of NDA in Assam. Citizenship bill could be a big hurdle for BJP in North-East this time around. There have been massive protests, against it. AGP even left NDA because of this issue. BJP will have to keep this issue on the backseat in order to win big in north east. INC on the other hand was decimated here in last elections, as was the case across India. It won 3 seats last time around. Since then it has also lost the assembly elections. Another regional player which won the 3 seats last time around was Badruddin Ajmal’s All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF). It has strong Muslim base in state. INC is likely to ally with AIUDF in the next elections. BJP’s presence has increased significantly since last time and it is expected to increase its vote share and seats this time around. NDA combined is likely to win 9-10 seats this time around, up from 7 on the back of newfound allies. INC and AIUDF are expected to win 2 seats each.

In Arunachal Pradesh, where there are two Lok Sabha seats. It already has Kiran Rijiju who is also MoS for Home, as a MP from Arunachal West. It is likely to retain that seat. In Manipur, both seats were won by the INC in 2014. BJP is expected to win at least one of the two seats. Other is expected to go to INC. Similar situation is in Tripura, where BJP, for the first time, formed government in state recently. It is expected to snatch both the seats from CPM in Tripura. In Meghalaya, NPP (National People’s Party) is expected to retain the Tura seat. It has been held by the Sangma family for decades. NPP is part of NDA and is ruling the state. INC is expected to retain the Shillong seat. In Nagaland, Nephio Rio’s NDPP a constituent of NDA is expected to win the lone seat comfortably. In Mizoram, MNF (Mizo National Front) which is also a member of NDA at centre, is expected to wrestle the lone seat from INC, this time around. In Sikkim, PK Chamling’s SDF (Sikkim Democratic front) has been holding the lone seat from years. The situation is unlikely to change. All in all, NDA is expected to win 17 seats in the North east region out of a possible 25. Meanwhile UPA is likely to get 8 seats.

ODISHA

This is also one of the states in the Eastern India. It has for the last 20 years been ruled by Naveen Patnaik’s BJD (Biju Janata Dal). It was part of the NDA during Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s regime. However, they left NDA in 2009. INC had been the principle opposition party to BJD all along in the state. However, everything changed in 2014. In 2014, INC drew a blank in 21 Lok Sabha seats of the state. Of the 21, 20 were won by the ruling BJD and the lone seat was won by Union Minister Jual Oram on a BJP ticket. This has further led to decimation of INC in the state. It has reduced considerably, and BJP has in the meantime gained the position of principle opposition party in the state. But unlike, West Bengal what BJP does have in Odisha is a face. Union Minister Dharmendra Pradhan is the party’s face in the state. In last 2-3 years, BJP has gained significant ground in the state and is in striking distance to form government in the next elections. What this also means is that party will also do well as compared to last general elections. Naveen Patnaik has been losing ground rapidly in the state. BJP got a boost recently when Aparajita Sarangi, a former Union Secretary joined BJP recently. Baijayant Jay Panda, Industrialist and 3-time Lok Sabha MP from Kendrappa, who left BJD recently is also likely to join BJP. There is also news of PM Modi contesting from Puri Lok Sabha seat, apart from Varanasi. This will be a huge boost for the saffron party which will also in turn affect the adjoining areas in state. All in all, BJP is expected to win 10 seats this time around, even without PM Modi contesting from Puri seat. BJD is expected to win the other 11 seats, down by almost half from last time. INC, like last time, is likely to not win any seat in the state.

Combining results from all the 88 Lok Sabha seats show that BJP led NDA will be the biggest gainer in these states and is expected to win almost triple of what it won in 2014 in the Eastern region. Of the 88 seats, NDA is expected to win 38 seats (BJP-31, Other NDA constituents-7) while UPA is expected to win 11 seats (INC-9, Others-2). Mamata Bannerjee’s TMC is expected to win 28 seats while Naveen Patnaik’s BJD is expected to win 11 seats.

The Priyanka Factor: How will it affect UP in the upcoming General Elections

Political Pundits often say, “Politics is all about optics”. This phrase holds key for the Indian National Congress in Uttar Pradesh in the upcoming general elections. On a breezy January afternoon last month, Rahul Gandhi appointed Priyanka Gandhi Vadra and Jyotiraditya Scindia as AICC General Secretaries, in-charge of Eastern UP and Western UP respectively. It is commonly said in political corridors that road to Delhi, goes from Lucknow. UP was the state which was primarily responsible for electing Mr. Modi as the PM in the first place. BJP led NDA won a whooping 73 seats in 2014, reducing other parties such as SP and INC to their family seats. Since then a lot of water has passed in Gomti. In an earlier post on this blog (titled THE BIG BANG STATE), I had discussed in detail, political prospects of all parties in UP for upcoming polls.

Continuing from there, why do we need to look things differently now in UP? Since this piece is mostly about Priyanka Vadra and INC’s poll prospects post announcements, I shall focus on the same. First, we need to revisit the current situation of the party in UP. It was reduced to Amethi and Raebareli in 2014 elections, during the Modi wave. But its deterioration started in UP, when the Mandal era began. ND Tiwari was the last CM from the INC in the late 1980s. This continued till 2017, when it was reduced to just 7 MLAs in a state which has 403 MLAs. This was their worst ever performance, especially considering they had allied with Akhilesh Yadav’s SP. It was in power in UP at that time. They even hired Prashant Kishor, the strategist responsible for running Modi’s campaign in 2014. Even if you let 2014 go as an exception, what went wrong for INC in 2017 in UP? I was talking to Prashant Kishor last June, and he said to me what he had, time and gain said in media as well as to Rahul Gandhi back then that for INC to regain ground in UP, it must fight alone in order to revamp its cadre in the state. Because in a coalition, transfer of vote is not always cent percent. Plus, one must understand that INC’s vote is not considered to be transferable, which we have seen across many elections. This was the primary reason why INC was kept out of the SP-BSP alliance. So, the big question now is that will Priyanka Vadra and Jyotiraditya Scindia be able to revive INC’s fortunes in UP? Answer to this question has multiple facets. But first we need to understand what works in UP? I am not going to talk about development and then subtly talk about caste. People aware with UP know what the ground reality is. The most important factor in UP’s electoral politics is caste. If you can get your caste equations right, you are going to run away with the prize. The other factor is chemistry, between the voter and the party. So, what was the INC’s primary base before Bindeshwari Prasad Mandal’s report ruined it for them? There were majorly three main constituents of INC’s vote base. Brahmin, Dalits and Muslims. All of them combined constitute around 50% of state’s population. But since then they all have moved ahead with different political parties with Brahmins majorly moving towards BJP, Dalits towards BSP and Muslims towards SP. BJP in recent times has also been able to penetrate Non-Yadav OBCs and Non-Jatav Dalits, which has been the reason for their astounding success in the state. Now one charge which has been traditionally put on Congress is that it promotes nepotism and members of Gandhi family are above anyone and everyone. But there’s an upside to this as well. The degree of galvanisation that a Gandhi family member can do to its cadre, no one else can. Rahul Gandhi after being disappointed by SP-BSP combine has rather used that idea to his own advantage. This brings us to Priyanka’s impact in the current situation. The base of any leadership is a galvanised cadre, in addition to a leader. Cadre is what INC lacks in the current situation in UP. Mrs. Vadra’s intervention is likely to galvanise the cadre for a strong fight in the next polls. Make no mistake this is not going to make INC win some 40 seats in next polls, because as I said she will galvanise the cadre not the people. What this means is that INC’s worker has a new vigour to work for his/her leader in the state. Will it convert to seats? Most likely No. So, what will it do? To understand the details, we must look at vote shares of each major political party in the state. BJP has around 42% of vote share, SP 22%, BSP 20%, INC 7%. Now after the announcement made by INC, I have been trying to understand this more closely. I have, after detailed analysis come to this conclusion that INC under Priyanka will dent vote share of all major parties. I have already said that INC when fighting alone, even without Priyanka can clock a vote share of around 11%, on its own. Priyanka’s entry is likely to give INC a push of around 5-6 %, overall. That increase is likely to come from its traditional vote base of Brahmins, Muslims and Dalits. But as far as conversion of seats is concerned, it will have impact in pockets. The current situation suggests that it will impact SP-BSP more than BJP. It is because both Muslims and Dalits have traditionally voted for SP and BSP and this will lead to division of these votes. Brahmins have voted majorly for BJP in recent times, although it is also true that Brahmins have very rarely voted en masse, and mostly their vote gets divided between BJP and BSP. So, of the 5-6% increase, around 75-80% is likely to come from SP-BSP combine and the rest from BJP. INC would also be benefited from the fact that in general elections, National parties have slight edge over regional players.  

Political Party	Previous Vote-share	Expected Vote-share (2019)
BJP	42.5%	40%
SP+BSP	42%	32-35%
INC	7%	15-16%

Coming to the number of seats that it can convert in the upcoming general elections. In last elections, INC finished second on six seats including Ghaziabad, Kanpur, Lucknow. INC won 21 seats in 2009 which was really an exception considering the history of last 30 years. This time around, it has specifically decided to focus on around 30 seats when it can challenge the other two factions which include seats such as Kushinagar, Barabanki, Dhaurhara, Bareilly, Saharanpur, Sultanpur, Pratapgarh, Farrukhabad, Allahabad, Varanasi and a few others. On other 50 seats the grand old party is not even in the picture. Most of these seats are also targeted because of strong candidates in the fray which include quite a few former Union Ministers such as Jitin Prasada, RPN Singh and Salman Khurshid.  How many is it likely to win? It is most likely to win apart from its traditional Amethi and Raebareli, seats such as PL Punia’s Barabanki, RPN Singh’s Kushinagar, Imran Masood’s Saharanpur, Jitin Prasada’s Dhaurhara. At most, INC can win 6-8 seats in the next Lok Sabha elections from Uttar Pradesh. But the increase in vote share can, with further consolidation, help it do well in the next assembly elections. All in all, the answer to the question weather Priyanka Gandhi Vadra will impact UP is both YES and NO. 

One more news that has recently emerged is that after the announcement of two AICC general secretaries for UP, SP-BSP are reportedly ready to give a better deal to the Congress party. They were ready to offer INC not more than 8 seats, apart from Amethi and Raebareli, six more seats where it had come second in 2014. Congress party wanted at that time at least 15 seats to contest, which both were not ready to give. Now, after announcement by INC, the alliance is reportedly ready to give 15 seats to Congress party. But Congress party now wants SP,BSP,INC to contest 25 seats each, leaving 5 for other allies. It seems really difficult that the two regional satraps would agree to this understanding. It will be really interesting to see how this situation pans out, because there is nothing which is impossible in politics.