From Outsiders to Heart of the matter: All Union Territories and the State of Jammu and Kashmir

This is the first part of the five-part series of my coverage of Lok Sabha elections. Apart from this series, I have already covered Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra under Special editions. After these two states, this first part covers all the Union Territories including the National Capital Territory of Delhi and the State of Jammu and Kashmir. This covers in total, 19 Lok Sabha seats.

NATIONAL CAPITAL TERRITORY OF DELHI   

Delhi has always had a habit of surprising everyone, even to Delhiites themselves. In last two Lok Sabha elections there have been complete sweeps, by INC in 2009 and BJP in 2014. So what will happen in 2019? While AAP got a historic mandate in 2015 Vidhan Sabha elections, winning 67/70 seats, it got defeated badly in Municipal Corporation (MCD) elections. What does this prove? Delhiites prefer to not mix things. While Mr. Modi is the preferred choice at the centre, Kejriwal has been their choice at state level. Coming to the present-day situation, INC has been relegated to a distant third in Delhi, as far as vote share goes. There were talks about alliance between AAP and INC, but nothing could materialise. Mainly because of seat sharing issues. AAP was not ready to concede more than 2 seats. This may cost heavily, not only to INC but AAP as well. While of the seven seats, according to seat share, there are only three seats where there is a chance of fighting between the BJP and opposition candidate. In other seats the vote share is difference is too big to be covered by a single party, either Congress or AAP, alone. The three seats are Chandni Chowk, South Delhi and West Delhi. First in Chandni Chowk, where Kapil Sibbal could give a tough fight to Union Minister Dr Harshvardhan. This is mainly because this constituency consists of a lot of traders and effects of Demonetisation and GST could haunt BJP here. However, BJP continues to remain ahead by a good 4-5%. Second seat is that of South Delhi. This seat mainly consists of the urban elite of Delhi. AAP in last Lok Sabha as well, gave a good fight to BJP’s Ramesh Bidhuri. Third seat where AAP has in recent times been able to increase its vote share is the West Delhi Lok Sabha seat.

However, no party nor INC in Chandni Chowk or AAP in West and South Delhi, is in a position to defeat BJP on its own. The alliance, however, could have tilted balance their favour. The alliance would have been deadly and in a position to defeat BJP in at least 2-3 seats. That being said, there is indeed some disgruntlement against sitting MPs in Delhi. BJP is likely to change at least 3 MPs out of the 7 sitting ones. Cricketer Gautam Gambhir is likely to fight election on a BJP ticket, possibly from South or New Delhi constituency. Vijay Goel is also expected to be fielded among the seven candidates. He has been a 2-time Lok Sabha MP from Chandni Chowk. There has also been news of Kirron Kher or his husband Anupam Kher fighting from one of the seats. But most importantly it is Mr Modi’s face that will do the job for the BJP, once again in Delhi. The Saffron party under Mr Modi’s face is likely to sweep across all 7 seats once again in 2019.   

JAMMU and KASHMIR

This state has seen most of last 70 years under a President’s rule, as is the case right now. Major players in the state include People’s Democratic Party (J&K-PDP) led by Mehbooba Mufti, who was until six months back in an alliance with BJP. Apart from it, the ever-present Abdullah parivar, is represented by National Conference (J&K-NC). In recent times, a third party has arisen, namely the People’s Conference(J&K-PC), led by Sajjad Lone. He is seen as a man currently backed by BJP in the state. Apart from them you have the two major national parties, the BJP and INC. The state comprises of three completely distinct regions namely Kashmir valley, Jammu and Leh. While BJP in recent times has managed to win the latter two, the valley remains a challenge for it. INC has depleted significantly from what it was during Ghulam Nabi Azad’s time as CM. In valley, BJP has to rely upon one or the other partner. After a relatively quiet last six months in the state, post BJP withdrawing support from PDP led government, temperatures soared up once again recently when Governor dissolved the state assembly. This dissolution of assembly was criticised by the PDP, NC and INC. All of whom are rivals themselves. This state has 6 Lok Sabha seats. In 2014, BJP riding on Modi wave won 3 seats, both Jammu seats as well as the Leh seat. PDP won all three seats in valley. This time around while BJP has continued to gain in Jammu, where it did very well in assembly polls as well. Kashmir remains a challenge for it. Leh MP, Thupstan Chhewang resigned recently due being unhappy with BJP. He is likely to join the Congress party. Sajjad Lone’s PC is likely to be part of NDA and fight all three seats in the valley. A heavyweight Muzaffar Husain Baig, sitting MP from Baramulla is now backing Sajjad lone and is likely to fight in next election on a PC ticket. National conference is likely to go into a prepoll alliance with the Congress party. PDP and NC are expected to retain their traditional strongholds in Anantnag and Srinagar. INC which drew a blank last time around, is likely to win the Leh Seat. Meanwhile, BJP will do well to retain the two seats it won in Jammu. Assembly elections are expected to be held together with the general elections, which would in turn help BJP backed Sajjad Lone do well in assembly elections as well. Final tally is expected to be NDA 3 seats (BJP-2, J&KPC-1), UPA-2 (J&KNC-1, INC-1) and J&KPDP-1.

UNION TERRITORIES (Andaman Islands, Chandigarh, Dadra and Nagar Haveli, Daman and Diu, Lakshadweep and Puducherry)

All the six out of seven Union territories above mentioned, have one Lok Sabha seats each. While Andaman Island has been a BJP stronghold, it is expected to win the seat comfortably. Chandigarh, like all the six territories has seen a direct battle between the two major National parties. BJP is also expected to win the Chandigarh seat. There are also talks that Kirron Kher could be sent to Delhi. Dadra and Nagar Haveli as well as Daman and Diu seats are also likely to fall in BJP’s kitty. Lakshadweep seat, which has considerable Muslim population, is likely to got to the Congress Party. NCP managed to win this seat last time around. On the Puducherry seat unlike the last time, NDA’s NR Congress is likely to lose this time around to Congress party. However, this could change if there’s a prepoll alliance between AIADMK and BJP, which seems difficult as of now. There is most likely going to be a post poll one, if needed.

All in all, among the 19 seats that are up for grab in this set, NDA is expected to win 14 seats (BJP 13, PC-1). UPA on the other hand is expected to win 4 seats (INC-3, NC-1). Mehbooba Mufti’s PDP is expected to win 1 seat, down from 3 it won in 2014.

Will Marathas do it Maharashtra?

This is the second in line, of the two special editions on my coverage of Lok Sabha Elections 2019 and how different states are going to vote. The first special edition covered in detail the political situation in Uttar Pradesh. The link for that is this (https://ambujsinghbeirniadaeth.blogspot.com/2018/11/the-big-bang-state-uttar-pradesh.html). This edition covers the State of Maharashtra.

Maharashtra is the second most important state, politically, after Uttar Pradesh. The reason is its 48 Lok Sabha seats, second only to UP. While Maharashtra may not have able to give us a Prime Minister yet, however no party has been able to form a comprehensive government in Delhi without winning this state. Maharashtra has mostly been represented in Delhi by Chavans, in previous INC and UPA governments. BJP’s original Chanakya, Pramod Mahajan also came from this state, before Amit Shah came into picture. In 2014 as well, this state was only second to UP, in helping Mr. Modi become the Prime Minister. NDA won 42 out of the 48 Lok Sabha seats that were there for the taking. The NDA in 2014 comprised of BJP, Shiv Sena, Republican Party of India (Athawale), Swabhimani Paksha (SWP), Rashtriya Samaj Paksha (RSP). Now there are four major political outfits in the state. The BJP, INC, Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP). However, barring a couple of seats, more often than not the state has a binary battle, especially in General elections. The reason, well NCP although being a national party itself, has by and large, fought alongside the Congress party. The other major player in the state is Shiv Sena, founded by iconic Balasaheb Thackery. Shiv Sena is the oldest ally of BJP, even before the National Democratic alliance was founded by Atal Bihari Vajpayee. So normally in general elections, it is BJP and Shiv Sena on one side and INC and NCP on the other. So, what is different this time around? Many would like to believe that something is, but it’s actually not. So, let’s begin with the Opposition. Indian National Congress was for years the main political party in the state. However, everything changed when Sharad Pawar formed NCP in 1999. In every government even with a lesser legislative number, he has been able to micromanage the Congress party. But this changed in 2014, when although in an alliance and fighting lesser seats than the grand old party he was able to win, double the seats won by the congress party. Although the opposition was diminished in front of NDA’s numbers, over the last four and a half years, NCP and INC have consolidated themselves. UPA got a boost in arm recently when Raju Shetty’s SWP joined it, leaving NDA just after four years. Sharad Pawar has been trying to form a UP like grand alliance, comprising of NCP, INC, SWP, BSP and Left parties. Seat sharing talks are also going on with previous formula not acceptable to NCP anymore. Previously of the 48, INC used to fight on 26 while NCP on 22. However, with Congress’s strength depleting and few other allies cosying up, it is likely to change. What seems to be the probability is that SWP is going to fight on one seat, Hathkangle, from where Raju Shetty is sitting MP. BSP is also likely to get 1-2 seats in the alliance, either Amaravati or Gadchiroli-Chimur. CPI(M) is also likely to get one seat. They have tried negotiating with Prakash Ambedkar’s Bharipa Bahujan Mahasangh (BBM), but on the contrary he allied with Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM. It is highly unlikely that INC would ally with AIMIM, for Congress sees it as a B-Team of BJP. NCP and Congress would most probably have to settle for 22 seats each in the state. Congress would most likely have to cough up seats because Ashok Chavan realises, it’s better to be in alliance with NCP than fight alone. Although in recent times, Sharad Pawar has been giving feelers to BJP as well, but it is unlikely that he will ally with them, at least prepoll. Had all parties been fighting alone, then anything was possible. The biggest catch here is BBM-AIMIM alliance. It is likely to cut through the so-called secular votes, not only in rural Maharashtra but also in some urban parts. It is likely to affect around 15 seats. This in turn will help the NDA candidate on that seat. Coming to the NDA. There have been a lot of rumblings within the government’s alliance in recent times. Shiv Sena is believed to be angry with BJP, so much so that they even announced that they will fight next year’s election alone. However, political pundits are far too familiar with this line of theory. It is an accepted fact that Shiv Sena is no more the party of Balasaheb’s time. Over the years, it was the senior partner of BJP in state, but in 2014 elections and since then their vote share has depleted significantly. This was proved in the recent Palghar Lok Sabha by-election. And this hue and cry only seems to be a political move to get good number of seats as well as to revive its fortunes in the public sphere. Uddhav Thackrey coming to Ayodhya was to further that agenda and mobilise Hindu votes. That being said, it would be foolish of BJP to let Sena go at this point of time. It would be best for both of them, to fight together under NDA. Hence, NDA is most likely to consist of BJP, Shiv Sena, RPI(A) and RSP. Seat sharing is going to be a big headache for the NDA here in 2019 election. Shiv Sena has 18 sitting MPs of the 20 seats that it fought in 2014. However, it seems difficult for BJP to give Sena 20 seats this time around. Sena will at best, have to lose at least 2 seats, this time around in the alliance. At worst, it will lose at least 5-6 seats in alliance. Ramdas Athawale‘s RPI is likely to get 1-2 seats. He has been asking for Mumbai-South Central and Satara. Mahadev Jankar’s RSP is likely to get one seat, either Baramati or Madha. BJP is likely to contest in 27-28 seats in 2019 elections in Maharashtra as part of the NDA on the back of its increased strength in last four and a half years as against 24 seats it contested in 2014. The bottom-line is that the opposition is forming a rainbow of coalition which will be up against the old Hindutva brotherhood of BJP-Shiv Sena.

Over the course of last four and a half years, NDA has been ruling both in state as well as in central government. However, the combined engine has not been able to do wonders for the state. The state has witnessed a drought like situation in two out of last four years in the Beed-Latur region. There is a general disenchantment against the government, especially in farmers. There have been protests against the government from the farmers side. This along with the Bhima-Koregaon incident doesn’t speak too well of the state government on law and order front. But to say that all is lost would be a juvenile argument. While there have been problems, the government has also taken a lot of steps. Most prominent among them being the Jalyukta Shivar campaign—a collective implementation of all water conservation schemes—and the farm loan waiver announced in June 2017 had expanded irrigation coverage and brought farmers back into the institutional credit system. Infrastructure projects like trans harbour link and Coastal Road connecting Nariman Point to Kandivali, go a long way. But above all, I feel Devendra Fadnavis has been able to create a soft-spoken, grounded, humble and growing image of himself, much like the PM. Fadnavis, has also earned substantial personal political capital by leading BJP to a series of victories in local elections as well as by-polls. Shiv Sena, on the other hand has been the biggest causality of this growth. There is a growing disenchantment among Sena, regarding a lot of ministers who favour Fadnavis over their own party. Not to mention, BJP has systematically eaten into Sena’s vote share. But above all, the Brahamastra for 2019 Lok Sabha as well as the assembly elections, was announced by the state government in the last week of November 2018. They announced a 16% reservation for Marathas in all state government jobs and colleges. This reservation was announced under the SEBC (Socially and Educationally Backward Class) category. Now this same tactic was used by INC-NCP government at the end of their last term, however it was deemed unconstitutional by the Bombay High Court. UPA also gave reservation to Muslims (5%) in addition to Marathas. This is a master tactic for two primary reasons. First, Marathas are the most politically relevant community in Maharashtra. At any point of time, Vidhan Sabha has at least 40%-50% of its members as Marathas. This is true in every government, weather NDA or UPA. Hence by giving them reservation, the state government has tried to pull them towards NDA. Second, Marathas are important also because apart from being politically relevant, they comprise of more than 30% of state’s population. This adds them to NDA’s vote bank, apart from their traditional Brahmin-Baniya one. However, a lot would depend upon weather it is held constitutional in a court of law. NDA in 2019, according to inside information, may also play the Vidarbha division card again. BJP has long supported the division and with CM himself coming from Nagpur, people feel disappointed that this demand was not meant in last 4 years. That being said, NCP will continue to be strong in its traditional belt of Pune-Kolhapur-Baramati and will largely gain a couple of other seats, that it lost in 2014. INC with its weakened strength will win around Nanded region, mostly due to Ashok Chavan’s own presence. Meanwhile, Shiv Sena, even though strong in Amravati area in addition to its Mumbai presence, will lose a few seats as compared to 2014. Its situation could come down to 5-6 seats if it fights the election alone, however that seems to be a distant possibility. BJP riding on the Mr. Modi’s popularity, in addition to no strong opposition PM candidate and Devendra Fadnavis’s clean image may increase its seats from 2014. Interestingly after allying with AIMIM, Prakash Ambedkar’s BBM seems strong on the Akola seat. He has been a two-time MP from this seat. He has also gained prominence in last one year after coming in spotlight during the Bhima Koregaon violence. AIMIM fighting election with BBM, means isolation of Dalit-Muslim votes, which in turn will hurt UPA on seats with considerable Dalit-Muslim population, as this third front will eat into the secular vote share on each seat. This will be a trend across all seats. There is also chances that Devendra Fadnavis may also dissolve its assembly early so that the polls may be clubbed with Lok Sabha.

All in all, NDA will lose around 10 seats mainly due to Shiv Sena’s weakened presence and farmer protest which was also the primary reason for Raju Shetty’s SWP moving out of the NDA. He has considerable presence in Kolhapur belt. The NDA is expected to win around seats 32 seats (BJP-21, Shiv Sena-10, RPI-1). UPA is expected to win around 15 seats (INC-8, NCP-6, SWP-1). UPA’s gains will mostly come from NCP and INC both gaining and consolidating seats in their stronghold. These seats mostly went to NDA due to Modi Wave. Apart from this BBM’s Prakash Ambedkar, grandson of Dr BR Ambedkar, is likely to win the Akola seat with help of Muslim votes which usually got divided between him and the Congress earlier.

What this means is that in the two most politically relevant states, Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra, NDA combination which won on 73/80 in former and 42/48 in latter, will lose a combined of around 30 seats from 2014. This loss essentially means a loss equivalent to more than a whole of Karnataka. Will they be able to cover it? We shall investigate that aspect, in future editions.