Sunday, December 9, 2018

From Outsiders to Heart of the matter: All Union Territories and the State of Jammu and Kashmir




This is the first part of the five-part series of my coverage of Lok Sabha elections. Apart from this series, I have already covered Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra under Special editions. After these two states, this first part covers all the Union Territories including the National Capital Territory of Delhi and the State of Jammu and Kashmir. This covers in total, 19 Lok Sabha seats.



NATIONAL CAPITAL TERRITORY OF DELHI   

Delhi has always had a habit of surprising everyone, even to Delhiites themselves. In last two Lok Sabha elections there have been complete sweeps, by INC in 2009 and BJP in 2014. So what will happen in 2019? While AAP got a historic mandate in 2015 Vidhan Sabha elections, winning 67/70 seats, it got defeated badly in Municipal Corporation (MCD) elections. What does this prove? Delhiites prefer to not mix things. While Mr. Modi is the preferred choice at the centre, Kejriwal has been their choice at state level. Coming to the present-day situation, INC has been relegated to a distant third in Delhi, as far as vote share goes. There were talks about alliance between AAP and INC, but nothing could materialise. Mainly because of seat sharing issues. AAP was not ready to concede more than 2 seats. This may cost heavily, not only to INC but AAP as well. While of the seven seats, according to seat share, there are only three seats where there is a chance of fighting between the BJP and opposition candidate. In other seats the vote share is difference is too big to be covered by a single party, either Congress or AAP, alone. The three seats are Chandni Chowk, South Delhi and West Delhi. First in Chandni Chowk, where Kapil Sibbal could give a tough fight to Union Minister Dr Harshvardhan. This is mainly because this constituency consists of a lot of traders and effects of Demonetisation and GST could haunt BJP here. However, BJP continues to remain ahead by a good 4-5%. Second seat is that of South Delhi. This seat mainly consists of the urban elite of Delhi. AAP in last Lok Sabha as well, gave a good fight to BJP’s Ramesh Bidhuri. Third seat where AAP has in recent times been able to increase its vote share is the West Delhi Lok Sabha seat.

However, no party nor INC in Chandni Chowk or AAP in West and South Delhi, is in a position to defeat BJP on its own. The alliance, however, could have tilted balance their favour. The alliance would have been deadly and in a position to defeat BJP in at least 2-3 seats. That being said, there is indeed some disgruntlement against sitting MPs in Delhi. BJP is likely to change at least 3 MPs out of the 7 sitting ones. Cricketer Gautam Gambhir is likely to fight election on a BJP ticket, possibly from South or New Delhi constituency. Vijay Goel is also expected to be fielded among the seven candidates. He has been a 2-time Lok Sabha MP from Chandni Chowk. There has also been news of Kirron Kher or his husband Anupam Kher fighting from one of the seats. But most importantly it is Mr Modi’s face that will do the job for the BJP, once again in Delhi. The Saffron party under Mr Modi’s face is likely to sweep across all 7 seats once again in 2019.   



JAMMU and KASHMIR

This state has seen most of last 70 years under a President’s rule, as is the case right now. Major players in the state include People’s Democratic Party (J&K-PDP) led by Mehbooba Mufti, who was until six months back in an alliance with BJP. Apart from it, the ever-present Abdullah parivar, is represented by National Conference (J&K-NC). In recent times, a third party has arisen, namely the People’s Conference(J&K-PC), led by Sajjad Lone. He is seen as a man currently backed by BJP in the state. Apart from them you have the two major national parties, the BJP and INC. The state comprises of three completely distinct regions namely Kashmir valley, Jammu and Leh. While BJP in recent times has managed to win the latter two, the valley remains a challenge for it. INC has depleted significantly from what it was during Ghulam Nabi Azad’s time as CM. In valley, BJP has to rely upon one or the other partner. After a relatively quiet last six months in the state, post BJP withdrawing support from PDP led government, temperatures soared up once again recently when Governor dissolved the state assembly. This dissolution of assembly was criticised by the PDP, NC and INC. All of whom are rivals themselves. This state has 6 Lok Sabha seats. In 2014, BJP riding on Modi wave won 3 seats, both Jammu seats as well as the Leh seat. PDP won all three seats in valley. This time around while BJP has continued to gain in Jammu, where it did very well in assembly polls as well. Kashmir remains a challenge for it. Leh MP, Thupstan Chhewang resigned recently due being unhappy with BJP. He is likely to join the Congress party. Sajjad Lone’s PC is likely to be part of NDA and fight all three seats in the valley. A heavyweight Muzaffar Husain Baig, sitting MP from Baramulla is now backing Sajjad lone and is likely to fight in next election on a PC ticket. National conference is likely to go into a prepoll alliance with the Congress party. PDP and NC are expected to retain their traditional strongholds in Anantnag and Srinagar. INC which drew a blank last time around, is likely to win the Leh Seat. Meanwhile, BJP will do well to retain the two seats it won in Jammu. Assembly elections are expected to be held together with the general elections, which would in turn help BJP backed Sajjad Lone do well in assembly elections as well. Final tally is expected to be NDA 3 seats (BJP-2, J&KPC-1), UPA-2 (J&KNC-1, INC-1) and J&KPDP-1.



UNION TERRITORIES (Andaman Islands, Chandigarh, Dadra and Nagar Haveli, Daman and Diu, Lakshadweep and Puducherry)

All the six out of seven Union territories above mentioned, have one Lok Sabha seats each. While Andaman Island has been a BJP stronghold, it is expected to win the seat comfortably. Chandigarh, like all the six territories has seen a direct battle between the two major National parties. BJP is also expected to win the Chandigarh seat. There are also talks that Kirron Kher could be sent to Delhi. Dadra and Nagar Haveli as well as Daman and Diu seats are also likely to fall in BJP’s kitty. Lakshadweep seat, which has considerable Muslim population, is likely to got to the Congress Party. NCP managed to win this seat last time around. On the Puducherry seat unlike the last time, NDA’s NR Congress is likely to lose this time around to Congress party. However, this could change if there’s a prepoll alliance between AIADMK and BJP, which seems difficult as of now. There is most likely going to be a post poll one, if needed.


All in all, among the 19 seats that are up for grab in this set, NDA is expected to win 14 seats (BJP 13, PC-1). UPA on the other hand is expected to win 4 seats (INC-3, NC-1). Mehbooba Mufti’s PDP is expected to win 1 seat, down from 3 it won in 2014.

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