The Faulty Trendsetters

In recent couple of weeks amongst a lot of hue and cry, something has come up again. A trend. A trend that has been visible for some time now. Trend of a corrosive strain of American Left-wing identity (CAL) politics has taken root among the progressive sections of the young, urban elite in India. This politics is defined by purity, where no more than minor differences of ideology are tolerated. Anything more instantly makes you an enemy, fit to be despised or, in the vocabulary of the modern woke Left, ‘cancelled’. The only way out for Indian progressives would require a concentrated effort of engaging with ordinary people holding so called ‘problematic’ views, listening to them and trying to convince them of your own viewpoints, rather than dismissing them as “waste-of-time bigots”. RSS Karyakartas have spent many decades on the ground, working selflessly in small towns and villages, gradually convincing people of their ideology and the potent of commitment. The ideological hegemony that the RSS enjoys today is built on their sweat and blood. Meanwhile, many on the progressive side display little patience to even engage with their family and friends with opposing viewpoints. This by no means suggests that these viewpoints don't have credibility or vigour to take on the majority view, but only that they fail to achieve their objective because the process fails to counter the narrative of the majority view.

If you look on the other side, the cohesive acceptance can be gauged from the fact that RSS invited Dr. Pranab Mukherjee, a lifelong congressman, to the annual conference at Nagpur as a guest of honour to respect opinions of dissent. For the progressives’ following this CAL style, the very reason why they have miserably failed at being an opposition is because of their lack of groundwork and accepting behaviour. The Vice-President very beautifully says, “let the government propose and opposition oppose”. Even Dr. Shashi Tharoor pointed out that “you need to appreciate the government where necessary, the opposition just cannot feed on the mistakes of the government.” When emergency was declared it was these “waste-of-time bigots” who provided Jay Prakash Narayan with the organisational strength and took a backseat in favour of the Loknayak being the face of movement. The reason BJP and RSS continue to strengthen themselves despite all the dissent and protests is because they've actually gone to the people and heard them over the years. Even at the peak of their power they are seen during the Patna floods with more than 11k volunteers, they are seen working with tribals through their Vanvasi Kalyan Ashram and they are seen organising protests in form of Sabrimala agitation. This groundwork, however, has lacked in all other social and political organisations challenging them. Our country before being a nation state is a civilisational state. No one has understood this concept better than the RSS. Culture and emotions are two things that humans have fed on and are the binding factors. The CAL stylers’ are happy fighting their battles on Social media and fulfilling their appetites for being activists, and in process just being the pseudo ones. Ever imagined why despite the economic issues, some farmer distress here and there, even with the so-called communal tag they carry, they've been successful and continue to strengthen themselves? The reason is simple, despite all their failures they're the ones who have actually gone to the people and assured them that the problems will be resolved soon and thus become the healing hands. When they win an election, the first priority is to strengthen organisationally. On the other hand, when the current opposition wins, here and there, they sit back in their AC rooms and go back to being Social Media Warriors. When the BJP loses election, the first thing that they do is something like a membership drive. One other major difference is type of cadre that they can build. Normally any cadre of any organisation, especially political ones, require the so-called dosage of power. When in government they want their ways and that special treatment as a sense of entitlement. It would be foolish to think that RSS/BJP cadre doesn’t but it’s their commitment towards fighting that ideological battle that drives them more. And importantly this drive starts from places like Nabrangpur in Odisha or Ballia in UP or Khunti in Jharkhand or Forbesganj in Bihar or Shikaripura in Karnataka or Nemom in Kerala instead of Akbar Road and Jantar Mantar in Lutyens’ Delhi. Good section of them would not have heard of all these places. Indeed, in woke speak, ‘engaging’ is often considered as ‘indulging’, and is thus deemed as a moral failing. And that my friends, has made all the difference!

NOTE: Mainly written as a part of discussion with shreyamanb@gmail.com

Let’s lacerate the Fear Mongering: The Citizenship Amendment Bill

The Citizenship Amendment Bill which was recently passed by the Parliament has become a casualty to fear mongering by a lot of sections of people in the country. A lot of erroneous allegations are doing rounds to create confusion and instigate the crowds. While most of these have inherent biases against almost everything that the government proposes, there are few who’re genuinely concerned about the state of our country. I hope to logically get through to them. So, let’s lacerate this haze about this latest legislation that has been adopted. This legislation aims to provide that the Hindus, Sikhs, Buddhists, Jains, Parsis and Christians from Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Pakistan, who entered India on or before December 31, 2014, will not be treated as illegal migrants. In order to get this benefit, they must have also been exempted from the Foreigners Act, 1946 and the Passport (Entry into India) Act, 1920 by the central government.  The 1920 Act mandates foreigners to carry passport, while the1946 Act regulates the entry and departure of foreigners in India. The basic aim of this legislation is absolutely unrelated to what propaganda that has been peddled the Lutyens’ Khan Market Gang. The aim of this legislation is to correct the historical injustice which has been done to all these communities. In a broader perspective, Partition caused about one crore people to cross over the boundaries and take refuge as paupers. The people who chose to live in then Pakistan found themselves in an Islamic nation governed by religious laws. A pact between Republic of India represented by then PM Pandit Nehru and Islamic Republic of Pakistan represented by then PM Liaqat Ali Khan was signed to ensure safety of minorities in both the newly formed nations, which came to be known as Nehru-Liaqat Pact. However, let’s look at the situation of minorities in both these nations. In India Muslims formed 9 percent of total population in 1947 while Hindus were 85 percent. In 2011 census, Hindus were pegged at 79.8 percent while Muslims are placed at around 15 percent of total population. The amount of persecution in other nations can be gauged from some of the further mentioned situation. Farahnaz Ispahani in her article Cleansing Pakistan of its Minorites claims that “at the time of partition in 1947, almost 23 percent of Pakistan’s population was comprised of non-Muslim citizens. Today, the proportion of non-Muslims has declined to approximately 3 percent.” In a speech, Bangladeshi researcher Abdul Barakat claimed that “on an average 632 Hindus left the country each day and 230,612 annually. He says there will be no Hindus left within Bangladesh within next 30 years.” This is in addition to the frequent news of Hindu girls being abducted and forcibly converted in Pakistan becomes a frequent headline. It’s not that we became aware of this today. Back in 1950s, Bengali Dalit leader Jogendranath Mandal, who was a minister in East Pakistan, had to flee to India on account of persecution of Hindus. It was expected that India and the newly formed nations would protect their minorities. While India stands by its minorities, others have miserably failed to do the same. Henceforth it is only natural that India should fulfil its role as a protector and truly implement the Nehru-Liaqat Pact.

Now let’s look at the outlook of this law and bust some myths. First let’s look at legality of this legislation. Article 11 of the Constitution says “Parliament to regulate the right of citizenship by law. Nothing in the foregoing provisions of this Part shall derogate from the power of Parliament to make any provision with respect to the acquisition and termination of citizenship and all other matters relating to citizenship”, So the parliament has sole right to regulate matters regarding the citizenship. Some CMs have made tall claims regarding not allowing the implementation in their states’. They shouldn’t get their hopes up. There have been claims made by some sections that this law is violative of Fundamental Rights, granted to us by the Constitution. First, among these rights, only Article 14 and 21 are automatically extended to non-citizens. Others are reserved only for all current citizens of the republic. It is true that Article 14 establishes the concept of Equality Before Law and Equal Protection of Law, thus ensuring no one is discriminated on basis of religion. But there is an exception. Article 14 makes provision for “reasonable classification” wherein the principle of equality is relaxed. Thus, the principle of affirmative action or positive discrimination is possible if the criteria for classification is reasonable. All our policies for caste-based reservations, special rights to minorities in India are possible due to this reasonable classification. Even the Supreme Court has underlined this concept. In the case of Ram Krishna Dalmia v. Justice S R Tendolkar, the Court said “It is now well established that while Article 14 forbids class legislation, it does not forbid reasonable classification for the purposes of legislation”. It put forth the concept of “intelligible differentia” which distinguishes persons or things that are grouped together from others left out of the group, and one which has a rational relation to the object sought to be achieved by the statute in question. The object sought to be achieved as underlined in the act is to give citizenship to some community instead of taking or denying any community any benifit. Moreover, In the case of Parisons Agrotech Pvt Ltd. v. Union of India, the Apex Court held that the equality clause does not forbid geographical classification, provided the difference between the geographical units has a reasonable relation to the object sought to be achieved. Similarly, the persecuted minorities from these three nations form a reasonable classification, since all have faced systematic attacks, persecution and communal violence due to their presence in Islamic nations. All of the above being said, I’m sure this legislation would stand the test in the Supreme Court as well. Indian Muslims or for that matter any current Indian citizen, is in no way affected by this amendment. They are and will continue to enjoy all the benefits as legitimate Indian citizens. So, in essence this act is only a relaxation given to members of these six communities in the period of naturalisation, reduced from 11+1 years to 5+1 years, provided they fulfil all the conditions. The bill deals with refugees who are foreign citizens. Government has NOT prohibited any person of any country, Muslim or not, to apply for citizenship of our republic through the legal means. Any such process take place under other acts like Foreigners Act, 1946 and the MHA will continue to grant citizenship to everyone through that means, just as it was the case before enactment. India has also declared that any refugee entering India post 2015 shall be examined by the above-mentioned acts irrespective of their religion. Let’s examine the claims of some smaller groups within the Islam. But before that let’s keep in mind that there is a fundamental difference between persecuted religious minorities and ethnic violence. Ahmadiyya and Shias are victims of sectarian and ethnic violence which has nothing to do with religious persecution. Thus, they can’t be compared to persecuted religious minorities like Hindus, Buddhists, Sikhs, Jains, Parsis and Christians. Moreover, from a legal point of view, if we include cases of ethnic violence along with religious persecution, it cannot be called as “reasonable classification” and it will violate Article 14.

One other issue that has been raised is increment in population. I think it’s a genuine concern. But as act clarifies that relaxation made to people from these communities only applies to those who came to India, till the cut-off date of 2014. After which even members of these communities have to go with the usual 11+1 years of naturalisation, as provided by Citizenship Act, 1955. Now let’s look at some of the issues and raised by some in North-East regarding them suffering, due to influx of non-local refugees. The government has been sensitive to the needs of the Northeast people from day one. It was for the time in history of India that a separate ministry to co-ordinate between and look into implementation of needs of North-East was established under the PM Modi’s leadership. These provisions on citizenship for illegal migrants will not apply to the tribal areas of Assam, Meghalaya, Mizoram, and Tripura, included in the Sixth Schedule of the Constitution. These tribal areas include Karbi Anglong (in Assam), Garo Hills (in Meghalaya), Chakma District (in Mizoram), and Tripura Tribal Areas District.  Further, it will not apply to the “Inner Line” areas notified under the Bengal Eastern Frontier Regulation, 1873.  In these areas, visits by Indians are regulated through the Inner Line Permit.  Currently, this permit system is applicable to Arunachal Pradesh, Mizoram, and Nagaland. Thus, persecuted refugees won’t be settled in all these areas.  Moreover, Article 371 which provides special rights to North-eastern states will not be affected. The rights include usage of customary laws, land rights, rights of local bodies, local representation, etc. India is a civilisation whose base has always been protected and nurtured by tribal community and therefore it is of utmost importance to protect their indigenous nature. One other issue which has been raised by some sections of society has been the inclusion of other religiously prosecuted communities across the world. It has always been a consistent stand of Government of India regarding citizenship in which it has instead of making blanket laws, focused on country and situation specific laws. Weather it has been about Tamils or Tibetans of any other communities. The government is clear that all other refugees would be dealt with under existing laws like Foreigners Act 1946 and the established process would be followed. CAB specifically focus on persecuted religious minorities. It doesn’t mean other class of refugees would be ignored. One final issue that has propped up has been the issue of Rohingya Muslims. There are fundamental differences between Rohingyas and other refugees. CAB is specifically for three nations- Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan- where the minorities bore the brunt of partition and hence are persecuted. Rohingyas don’t fall in this category as they primarily originate in Myanmar. Also, there are conclusive reports that Rohingyas are a threat to national security of India. Rohingyas have contacts with terrorist organizations like ISIS and LeT. Not just India, PM of Bangladesh Sheikh Hasina is on record calling Rohingyas as a threat to national security.

One red flag regarding this bill is how would citizenship be dealt with regard to converts. It is not beyond imagination that for an issue like citizenship, conversion from other religion to any of the six provided in the act is an absolute probability. It is unclear as of now how government proposes to deal with such situations. This can be further clarified only after the MHA comes out with notification and guidelines to apply for citizenship. I am hopeful the apex court will look into that aspect. All in all, this legislation not only furthers our country’s great panoramic cultural continuity of last 5000 years but also adds another feather to it. This legislation not only is in accordance with Vasudaiv Kutumbakam principle that we so dearly value, but also creates exceptions where our National security and Interest is compromised. This is the ultimate example of New India, which holds its’ culture and values but at the same time is willing to go to any and all lengths to protect its integrity and people.

Amicably Yours: No more the Ram Janmabhoomi Dispute

The Supreme Court of India has very amicably settled the all (in)famous Ram Janmabhoomi Dispute. In essentiality it was a dispute which has been going on for centuries. The apex court, and in particular CJI Gogoi has been praised widely for settling this dispute, especially by his current and former colleagues in judiciary. The apex court has awarded the 2.77 acre of disputed land to Ram Lalla Virajman. The struggles of millions of Indians, including my own family has been vindicated. It is equally reassuring that the entire country has accepted this judgment. There is no discord or hostility on the ground and a rare amity, brotherhood and understanding has been witnessed. Most Muslims have welcomed the Ayodhya verdict as it is a balanced scorecard. This dispute was impeding the growth of the Muslim community in several ways. Gratitude is due to Chief Justice who led the Supreme Court bench which relieved India of this problem. This issue which was contentious, full of competing claims and interests many times giving rise to conflicts and hostility, has been resolved in a perfectly lawful manner consistent with the Maryada of our constitutional polity.  

The judgment as well as conduct of people is very symbolic of Ram Lalla himself. Lord Ram is also known as Maryada Purushottam. Dignity and ethics are central to his conduct and philosophy. His story for the last five thousand years continues to animate and inspire the psyche of ordinary Indians and remains a proud narrative of our civilizational, cultural and spiritual heritage. Significantly the court observed the practice of religion, Islam being no exception, varies according to the cultural and social context. Cultural assimilation is a significant factor which shaped the manner in which religion is practised, because cultural assimilation cannot be construed as a feature destructive of religious doctrine. Surely the heritage of Kabir, Rahim and Raskhan stands vindicated today.

Joseph Tiefenthaler was a Jesuit missionary who visited India in 1740. He notes the sacred character of Ayodhya, which he called Adjudea. In particular, he mentions a “Bedi” – a cradle – where Beschan (Vishnu) was born in the form of Ram. Alexander Cunningham, director general of Archaeological Survey of India, refers to Ayodhya in his 1862 report as the birthplace of Lord Ram. P Carnegie, commissioner and settlement officer of Faizabad, mentions in his 1870 report that “Ajudhia is to Hindus what Mecca is to Mohammedans”. The court concluded vide para 786 that travelogues of foreigners provide a detailed account both of the faith and belief of Hindus based on the sanctity which they ascribe to the birthplace of Lord Ram and to the actual worship by Hindus of the Janm-Sthan. Very significantly, the court further noted that for a period of 325 years from the date of the construction of the mosque until installation of a grill wall by the British, no evidence has been adduced by the Muslims to establish the exercise of possessory control over the disputed site. The court held that the oral and documentary evidence shows that the devotees of Lord Ram hold a genuine longstanding and profound belief in the religious merit attained by offering prayer to Lord Ram at the site they believe to be his birthplace. Significantly the court mentioned the acknowledgments by Muslim witnesses about the presence of Hindu religious symbols like Varah, Jai-Vijay and Garud outside the three-dome structure. The court further held, “They are suggestive not merely of the existence of faith and belief but of actual worship down the centuries.” Quite clearly, what was brought down was not just brick and mortar but a vibrant and active symbol and place of worship for millions of Hindus through centuries. 

While decreeing the suit in favour of Ram Lalla plaintiff of the Hindus in substance, the court also decided to provide restitution to the Muslim community by directing the government to allocate five acres of land to the Sunni Waqf Board. The central government has been directed to formulate a scheme envisaging the setting up of a trust for the management as also construction of a temple. It has also been given the liberty to hand over the rest of the acquired land for development in terms of the scheme.

It would have been much better if this dispute had been settled out of court, as suggested in 2017 by the then CJI J S Khehar or, recently, by the constitution bench led by CJI Ranjan Gogoi. As a matter of fact, the Muslims should have offered this patch of land to the Hindus, stating that they are doing so as a goodwill gesture for Lord Ram, while leaving the rest to Allah and Prophet Muhammad. Certainly, the magic would have worked, and the animosity of Partition would have been history. No doubt, after this gesture, the Hindus would have built not one but many mosques. Besides, this humane gesture would have obviated all scope for converting any other mosque —any monument, in fact — into a temple. However, owing to the actions of some self-appointed leaders of the community, the Muslims have missed the bus.

Some of the baggage Indian Muslims carry is due to the perception they believe the majority community has of them. That perception is, in fact, inaccurate, made up of half-truths and cooked-up charges. The other burden is a result of their own inaction, which has led to the emergence of opportunistic interlocutors — clerics and personal law boards. Muslims must come out of the control of these hypocritical, rigid clerics who lead them astray. If Muslims want to progress educationally, socially and economically, they must now try to get out of the clutches of the rabble-rousing representatives or faux secularists — these are the very people responsible for their misery since Partition. PM Modi, who tells them to hold the Quran in one hand and a computer in the other, has been their well-wisher. However, Opposition leaders have been misleading them. It is time Muslims stopped being misled by such leaders who keep instigating the community against the RSS and the BJP. Around 200 million Muslims have to exist in India with their non-Muslim brethren; they have to live in amity with them to take India towards success and glory.

Dilli mein Narendra, Mumbai mein Devendra

“Mi punha yein, yach nirdharan, yach bhumiket, yach thikani, Nav Maharashtrach nirmiti sathi”.

Above statement simply means “I will come again with the same foundation, in the same role, in the same place, to build a New Maharashtra.” On 2 July 2019, the incumbent CM ended the last assembly session of his first term with the above note. By now he had gone from a Modi-protege to Maharashtra’s most powerful and popular politician with a self-made base. Devendra Fadnavis is the frontrunner to win another term in the state, having waded through the highs and the lows of his first term, with consummate ease and distinction. Very few political observers would have been sceptical about this statement. But this wasn’t always the case. 

If in October 2014, political observers were asked to opine on the probability of a Brahmin Maharashtra chief minister from Vidarbha in his mid-40s with no cooperative movement link completing a full five-year term, the most common answer would have been “zero”. The last chief minister to complete his full five-year term in Maharashtra was Vasantrao Naik in 1972. Only one of the 17 chief ministers before Fadnavis was a Brahmin, Manohar Joshi of Shiv Sena. All previous chief ministers had a cooperative or local industrial base, which was their leverage in state politics. A Maratha chief minister from either Marathwada or Western Maharashtra area was the norm in state politics. Yet, the BJP trusted Fadnavis, not a novice, but certainly not a cookie-cutter template choice either. The odds facing Fadnavis were insurmountable — he faced opposition from within his party, from within his government and, of course, from the opposition.

Maharashtra is the economic engine of India, contributing almost 1/5^th of India’s gross domestic product (GDP) and attracting almost 50 per cent of all foreign direct investment (FDI) flowing into India in many years. Yet, politically, Maharashtra had been a cash cow, not a focal point of governance. Mumbai would get the fawning attention, but not the funds to invest in its crumbling infrastructure. Marathwada got several studies to understand how to deal with perennial water shortage but not many new ideas. Nagpur got a few projects mainly to ensure the Vidarbha statehood demand remained curbed, but not much in terms of connecting with the rest of the state. Fadnavis has managed to address several of these anomalies. Rather than getting bogged down by the various scenarios in which he may lose power, he leveraged his urban connect, a person-next-door image and his political vulnerability to create a brand associating himself with development and governance. He worked, talked about his work and got others to talk about his work.

The few big items that Fadnavis concentrated on are at different stages of taking shape. Over the next six years or so, Mumbai will complete a collection of projects Fadnavis has started or rejuvenated. All these projects are significantly standalone; collectively they will make Mumbai a very different city. Not yet Shanghai, but certainly the city Mumbai deserved to be a few decades ago, Mumbai will close gap with its own needs significantly. A 340-kilometre metro rail network will span across Mumbai, Thane and Navi Mumbai areas, making commuting in the city more comfortable and modern. An expanding suburban rail network will connect Mumbai with several towns in the Konkan region, opening access for job-seekers. The metro was first conceptualised in 1990s and the current plan was ready as early as 2005. A new airport will come up at Navi Mumbai. The new airport was first proposed in 1997. The Mumbai Trans-Harbour Link (MTHL) will connect South Mumbai to the mainland near Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust. The MTHL is being talked about since 1963. Successive state governments lacked the will and the conviction to see these projects through. The Fadnavis government is working on the ambitious, India’s longest expressway of 710 km Mumbai-Nagpur Samruddhi Mahamarg. With the project achieving full financial closure, the Vidarbha-Khandesh-Konkan connectivity will get a huge boost, opening new markets for farmers as well as industries. Along the highway, the government plans targeted industrial and residential clusters. His flagship Jalyukt Shivar Abhiyan has covered almost 17,000 villages. Constructing local water harvesting, storage and transporting projects has helped these villages reduce their dependency on rain as well as big dams. Maharashtra has also continued to attract domestic and foreign investments. Be it the factories of GE, Philips or Britannia or the retail expansion of Ikea, the state continues to benefit from a stable political environment and being the preferred migration destination of a skilled workforce. The proposed nuclear power plant in Jaitapur and the oil refinery in Raigad district also promise to add energy to the long list of industries in which Maharashtra leads the country. Devendra Fadnavis has articulated his dream of steering Maharashtra towards a $1-trillion economy. As India targets a $5-trillion economy, this target for Maharashtra makes eminent sense, with its share of GDP over the years. From the current $400-billion-odd levels, it will take 12 years of 8 per cent growth to achieve this feat. Fadnavis runs his government from Mumbai, India’s economic capital. While this brings great glamour to the job, it is a risk in itself. If the financial district of the Bandra-Kurla Complex sneezes, quite likely, Wall Street will catch a cold. If the factories in Chakan or the software firms in Hinjewadi are prevented from operating, global leaders may call New Delhi. This interdependency reflects the best of global economic integration; it also exposes the city to manipulation. Throwing normalcy out of gear even for a day or two can lead to increased global concern, if not panic. 

If Fadnavis is re-elected, he will continue to face opposition emanating from the caste fault-lines of the state. He had to work hard on ensuring that social schemes in the state didn’t snowball into large-scale violent protests. On many occasions, he had to use his personal political capital and goodwill to diffuse frayed sentiments. Given that Fadnavis implemented the long-standing demand of Maratha reservation, mobilisation of political opposition in the garb of social causes has become difficult. Additionally, the BJP has also fortified its Maratha leadership ranks. But the ‘Peshwai’ barbs thrown at Fadnavis will remain — a historic reference to the Brahmin Peshwas governing symbolically on behalf of the Maratha rulers, but in essence, edging them out of significance. Mumbai has the most diverse demographic make-up across all large cities in India. This diversity manifests itself in two ways — language and religion. In a Marathi-speaking state, created on linguistic basis, only 42 per cent residents of the capital city are native Marathi speakers. In terms of religion, Mumbai has 66 per cent Hindus, 21 per cent Muslims, 5 per cent Buddhists, 4 per cent Jains, 3 per cent Christians, and just less than 1 per cent Sikhs. It is also home to India’s largest population of Parsis, with 60,000 of them living in the city. While this linguistic and religious diversity has contributed immensely to Mumbai’s tenacity and progressive worldview, it sadly also has been a source of strife. No other Indian chief minister deals with this religious and linguistic diversity in his own capital city as the Chief Minister of Maharashtra. This is the complexity Fadnavis has managed in addition to checkmating his wily political opponents in Sharad Pawar, Raj Thackeray, Ashok Chavan and Prithviraj Chavan, and managing his tantrum-prone ally Shiv Sena. But this is an ongoing battle if he comes back to run Maharashtra. The expectations will only multiply if he is re-elected. The good news for the state is that after a long time, a chief minister is seeking votes in his own name and work.

A corporator at 24, mayor at 26, Member of Legislative Assembly (MLA) at 28, Fadnavis has spent two decades now in the corridors of power in Mumbai. His no-nonsense, pro-development, less dogma and more action-orientation approach have served him well in his first term. Dilli mein Narendra, Mumbai mein Devendra — Narendra (Modi) in Delhi and Devendra (Fadnavis) in Mumbai, that’s the promise BJP has held out to the voters in Maharashtra. This time Fadnavis, now the tallest leader in Maharashtra with cross-caste acceptance and not just a budding Brahmin MLA from Vidarbha, will in all probability become the longest serving CM in the history of Maharashtra.

The Fourth Lal of Haryana

Haryanvis are, along with Biharis, among the most stereotyped people in the country. But more so, there are famous for their notorious dynasties. It is the land of ‘’Lals” and their lals(children). Devi Lal, Bansi Lal and Bhajan Lal are three most prominent former CMs who have left behind a legacy. BJP came to power in 2014 for the first time in the state riding on the coattails of Prime Minister Modi as well as due to anti-incumbency sentiment against a decade-long old government which had earned notoriety for being corrupt and focusing on only select pockets for development. A non-Jat became chief minister when BJP selected Manohar Lal Khattar — the fourth Lal — to head the government. He faced fierce opposition from outside the government and a muted resistance from within his party’s state unit. Barring a few in Sangh circles, he wasn’t well known even in the BJP let alone among the masses who hadn’t heard of him before the election. Everyone was betting against him and wishing for him to stumble, fail and fall. He did fail. Repeatedly. At least that’s how everyone saw it. Soon after assuming charge, he came under fire for how his government handled violent followers of Rampal who had defied court orders of arrest and was hiding in his ashram in Hisar. In early 2016, the Jat reservation movement which turned violent and claimed more than 30 lives, almost did him in. Chief Minister Khattar had barely recovered from that, when the mayhem unleashed by followers of Dera Sacha Sauda in Panchkula in early 2018 again seemed to prove his detractors right. They again bayed for his blood. But the party bosses in Delhi kept their faith in Khattar. Until last year, Khattar didn’t seem to be in control. The only thing that was going in his favour was his clean image. He had put an end to all kinds of corruption, which Haryana was infamous for. But it wasn’t enough. In fact, it was proving counter-productive especially among the party cadre. Given the lack of ideological or party loyalty, leaders and people flock to a party in the hope they will get personal favours when in power. But Chief Minister Khattar was in no mood to dole out government jobs to the party faithful or even entertain requests from ministers or his MLAs for transfers or contracts for their loyalists.

But soon Khattar’s fortunes took a turn for the better. In December 2018, BJP swept mayoral polls in five big municipalities of Rohtak, Hisar, Karnal, Panipat and Yamunanagar. It was truly an inflection point. Those who were sure that Chief Minister Khattar will be a one-term wonder, started realising the gravity of one past incident. It dawned on them how gravely the violence during Jat quota agitation has polarised the state even in areas where Jats had minimal presence. One month later, it won the Jind by-poll with a huge margin in Jat heartland. It fielded a non-Jat against Jat candidates ran by Chautalas and Congress. The demographics did the rest. But it wasn’t just that. Yes, polarisation was the biggest factor but there was more, something which analysts had also overlooked. Khattar’s war on corruption may have been resented by his own party men the most but it was starting to bear fruit on the ground. Just before the Jind election, the state government announced results for 18,000 Group-D jobs and Jind came third with over 1,600 applicants qualifying. In fact, the areas which bagged the most number of jobs were not BJP strongholds. The party had lost there in 2014. This proved to the people that the jobs were being given in a transparent manner. In his five-year tenure, Khattar government has given more sarkari jobs than what the state governments of Hooda and Chautalas did in the last 15 years before 2014. How could no one, from the shrewdest seasoned politicians to wily political operatives who stayed in power for years, crack this easy puzzle: that this could work wonders in a state crazy for sarkari jobs? It took a novice like Khattar to understand its importance. Because these vacancies are filled in a totally transparent manner, people from lower and poor sections of the society have benefitted the most. With bribe culture gone and merit the criterion, students have started focusing on studying rather than worrying about arranging money for cooling palms of corrupt middlemen or running behind politicians wasting time. Coaching classes are coming up everywhere. The amount of goodwill Khattar has earned among masses with just one move, especially among the youth, has only one parallel that I can think of: when Devi Lal had started monthly pension for the old-age folks in 1977. Khattar has also ended the culture of regionalism — favouring one’s hometown district or those areas which vote for you — over others. When people see public works being done in constituencies which didn’t vote for the BJP in 2014, it strikes them as something of an alien concept. Now, there is no waiting for someone from your area to become chief minister to see vikas. A close friend working these days with Government in Haryana who was especially biased against the ruling party, was recently praising it for the implementation of iconic Beti Bachao, Beti Padhao scheme. I was smiling. And so is Manohar Lal.

While the ‘Aaya Ram, Gaya Ram’ culture is alive and kicking, Chief Minister Khattar has introduced a new governance model to Haryanvis: free of corruption and graft, which works for all parts of the state’s citizens based on their needs and not on their political affiliations. It is due to this culture that those politicians, especially dynasties, which thrived on regionalism or personal loyalties, have been dealt a body blow. Most importantly, he has rid the state government of image where it was seen to be run by the real estate tycoons. No wonder that Khattar is all set to return for a second term and this time with an even much bigger majority. The opposition is merely fighting for relevance, not to win. Of course, the BJP has been able to achieve it all by polarising the state along Jat-non-Jat lines, however strongly it may deny that fact. This has been the price that the state has paid for Chief Minister Khattar’s good governance. He has cleaned up a lot of mess, but Haryana has got infected with this deadly virus like never. One hopes that in the next five years, the state gets itself rid of this poison of caste tensions and rises to new highs. There are signs all over that this caste tension has reduced significantly in recent times with Jats voting openly for BJP in recently concluded General Elections, where the saffron party won all 10 Lok Sabha seats. Including the Jatland seats of Hisar, Rohtak and Sonipat.

The Masterclass of Dominant vs The Others

Ordinarily, if the country is less than a few months away from three assembly elections, particularly if a state as significant as Maharashtra is among them, one can expect a fair bit of buzz building up in the political and media circles. If past trends are anything to go by, now would roughly be the time when a few theatre-turned-cinema artistes would begin to write a letter or two decrying some perceived injustice or the other and a few other ‘eminent historians’ and ‘public intellectuals’ would return some of the awards that they had won during more ‘secular’ times. Thankfully, the nation has been spared such theatrics this time around. Even the major political opposition party, the Congress, has restricted its attacks to acerbic missiles around the state of the economy and has not really shown any inclination to get its hands fully dirty. The internal turbulence in the opposition and fairly clear verdicts from all the three states in the general election have made the opposition and its larger ecosystem almost concede defeat to the BJP.

However, for those interested in a more than casual analysis, the elections of Maharashtra, Haryana and Jharkhand will represent a critical step in the political project that the BJP, under the Modi-Shah duo, has effected in the country over the last five years. The genesis of this initiative can be said to have been in the state of Uttar Pradesh, in the run-up to the 2014 general election, when Amit Shah was sent to the heartland as its state in-charge. In UP, Shah managed to revive his party in a spectacular fashion, by winning it 71 of the state’s 80 seats. He did this by orchestrating a rainbow coalition of castes --- prizing away micro-castes (non-Yadav OBCs and non-Jatav Dalits) from their larger caste groupings and adding them onto the already existing social alliances of the BJP. Of course, he was helped by the image and oratory of Narendra Modi but at the end of the 2014 general election, it was evident that, as an electoral strategy, Shah’s plan of creating a social coalition of non-dominant castes had worked.

The elections of Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Haryana quickly followed and the strategy was replicated in all three. It needs to be noted that in all these states, the BJP had been in power only intermittently and never on its own strength. The polity of Maharashtra had come to be dominated by the Marathas, Haryana’s by the Jats and Jharkhand had never seen a non-tribal chief minister since its formation. The Modi-Shah duo built their social alliances against this tide and after unprecedented victories in the polls, reinforced these tactics with their selection of chief ministers from the non-dominant communities. While it may seem that the Modi-Shah strategy has paid off today, the move was fraught with risks at the time. Both Fadnavis and Khattar bore the brunt of the wrath of the dominant groups (no doubt egged on by the opposition) in the form of reservation protests, which nearly cost them their chairs, and their party, the state. Also, this move was in stark contrast to the practice followed rather successfully by the Congress and its allies for decades in Maharashtra and, post the rise of Hooda, in Haryana. The strategy was to target the most electorally dominant caste and combine it with their traditional minority vote bank in order to create formidable social arithmetic, which almost guaranteed a victory in the face of a fractured opposition. Essentially, the path that the BJP chose to follow was far more difficult and required a herculean effort from the party and its larger ideological organization. Not only did it require the devolution of power into multiple social groups, it also involved the identification of a larger pool of leaders from the targeted groups. Not to mention the challenges of balancing a wider range of interests, which can, even at the best of times, be mutually conflicting. Once this narrative has been set, including in all three states, not only has there been a solidification of existing caste alliances, there is also evidence of the BJP’s expansion into the dominant caste groups.

The mass migration of a host of Maratha satraps into the party, its inroads into the Jat bastions of Haryana and UP and the addition of Hindu tribals in Jharkhand to the saffron coalition only point to the fact that the gambles of 2014 seem to have paid off. It is also significant to note what the reasons of such a migration could be. Certainly, the social schemes of the NDA government and the last-mile delivery achieved by the Prime Minister’s emphasis on implementation would have had its part to play. Even so, the historic cultural profiles of the Marathas and Jats when combined with the patterns of the fissuring of the tribal vote also point to the growing public resonance of the nationalist and Indic value systems represented by the Prime Minister and his party. It remains to be seen whether this result will be replicated in the assembly elections, when Narendra Modi is not on the ticket and more local factors begin to take precedence. There will certainly be more emphasis on the performance of the respective Chief Ministers, candidate selections and local governance issues than there was in the general elections (which the opposition unwittingly made out to be about Modi). In a sense, the voting patterns from the assembly polls will serve as an indicator of the long-term cohesiveness of the BJP’s social alliance, especially when it does not have the overt appeal of Narendra Modi to bind it. If the party succeeds in holding onto its newer and more expansive base, then the signs will be ominous for the opposition, especially with the Bihar polls coming up next year and the UP elections looming in the medium term. A repeat of the clean sweep in October followed by wins in Bihar and UP (the result in Delhi notwithstanding) will signify a quantum change in the political and social narrative of the country. Such victories could also open up this template to be replicated in the areas where the party has not managed to make significant inroads yet, specifically states in the south like Tamil Nadu. Perhaps more importantly, it will also represent a major step forward in the larger ideological battle to move the Indian polity towards one driven by Indic values. 

I’ll specifically be covering in next blog how Fadnavis and Khattar have done in their states.

Government and Structural Reforms: Post 2014

Structural reforms are costing him political capital – and the economy some amount of growth. Growth is down and in trouble because cronyism will no longer help rescue firms in loan default to recover quickly; there is no great advantage in remaining small or in the unorganised sector after the advent of the goods and services tax (GST) and incentivisation for formalisation of employment; the scope for speed money in transactions with government is rapidly reducing; the digital push is forcing more and more small businesses, even vegetable sellers and kirana merchants, to accept non-cash payments or risk losing business; the real estate sector, once the Gangotri of corruption and black money, is learning to clean up its books, especially after the legislation of the Real Estate Regulation Act (RERA); and corrupt businessmen, who once demanded the right to hire and fire labour, are now finding that they themselves are being fired by being pushed to the insolvency court, the National Company Law Tribunal. Some of his schemes may have flopped or misfired, others may have met with resounding success and yet others may be a work-in-progress in the second half of 2019, but there is little doubt that the trajectory is set.

If someone were to ask Mr. Narendra Modi, at the end of his second term as Prime Minister in 2024, what is your Government’s lasting achievement, there could be many answers. It could be about poverty reduction, cutting down corruption and black money, taking the Indian economy to the $5 trillion level, improving ease of doing business rankings, or many such things. However, if one were to ask the same question at the end of first term and at the start of his second, one can reasonably assert this: no one has done more to clean up the system than Modi in India’s post-Independence history. The one running theme in almost all of Modi’s major actions and schemes has been structural reforms inside the system.

Narendra Modi has genuinely been for India, the Reformer in chief. Probably biggest one since Independence. Structural changes add costs to doing business in the short run, especially for those who were surviving by feeding off the udders of a corrupt state. Now that those udders are drying up, individuals and businesses have to adjust to the new realities. Growth will revive once the mindset change occurs, and people see transparency and honesty as better ways to do business. The Government’s structural clean-up strategy can be broken up into three broad categories: physical clean-up of our natural surroundings, financial clean-up of the banking and related ecosystems, and transparent policies that prevent the build-up of more opportunities for corruption and illegal wealth generation in future.

Physical Structural Clean-Ups

The most obvious and costliest attempt at structural change of the physical environment relates to the Swachh Bharat campaign. It started out as a general clean-up exercise involving all public places, with political leaders showing up on TV channels with brooms in hand, but the scheme’s parameters were quickly focused on building toilets and making India open defecation-free (ODF). According to the Swachh Bharat Mission portal, by the third week of July 2019, some 624 districts (out of 725) and 5.73 lakh villages had declared themselves open defecation-free, thanks to the building of close to 10 crore household toilets, not to speak of public conveniences. The next big deal in terms of cleaning up the physical environment relates to a policy decision to incentivise cleaner cooking fuels. Under the Ujjwala scheme, around 10 crore poor households have been given gas connections and this has enabled an extension in cooking gas connections from 55 per cent of households in 2014 to over 90 per cent as in mid-2019.

The third physical change is in the Ganga, the holiest and yet one of the dirtiest rivers in India. While plans to clean up India’s most sacred river have been afoot since 1985, and the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government in 2011 launched the National Mission for Clean Ganga, the river just got worse and worse. Till 2014, barely Rs 4,000 crore had been spent. After NDA government restructured the project as Namami Gange, the focus on stopping effluent inflows into the river, supplemented by riverfront development and surface cleaning of the Ganga, is beginning to bear some visible results. The ghats are being spruced up, and even though the river is not yet fit for bathing, the 254 projects worth Rs 24,000 crore sanctioned for cleaning it up will start to bear results a couple of years down the line. The clear gain is the political commitment to clean up the river, and the build-up of public awareness on the issue.

The focus on a clean-up of the physical environment includes two other elements, one being the increasing emphasis on solar power, and the other being the proposed move to gradually eliminate internal combustion-driven automobiles, which use petrol and diesel, and replace them with electric vehicles (EVs) by 2030. In solar, for the first time ever, capacity additions outpaced other forms of power-generation in 2017. The cumulative solar power capacity reached 20 GW that year. As far as automobiles are concerned, in the initial phase, three-wheelers are to become fully electric by 2023, and two-wheelers below 150 cc are to go fully electric by 2025. The automobile industry is kicking up a hell of a fuss over these stiff deadlines, but the direction is clearly right. India’s urban air, now one of the biggest causes of concern, will start getting cleaner after 2025. India’s energy sources will get cleaner in the years ahead, but whether this will make our air substantially cleaner or merely prevent it from getting worse depends on how well the policy framework needed for cleaning up India’s air and water works is backed by adequate funding.

Financial Structural Clean-Ups

The Modi government’s financial clean-up act involves a handful of approaches. One is to focus inwards, at government subsidy pay-outs to citizens to prevent leakages. The second is to bring more and more people and businesses into the tax net by extending the goods and services tax (GST). Third, the attempt is to put fly-by-night shell companies to pasture. Fourth, the government is cleaning up bank balance-sheets by both recapitalising them and by pushing defaulter companies towards the bankruptcy courts, thus enabling recovery of some of the money lent, faster. Fifth, it is going after economic fugitives who flee the country after failing to pay up banks. And sixth, it has closed some of the tax loopholes that allowed round-tripping of funds and gave unintended tax breaks to investors bringing in money from abroad. Double-taxation agreements with Mauritius, Cyprus and Singapore have already been reworked to enable this.

Clearly, the most successful clean-up has been the extension of the direct benefits transfer (DBT) scheme to more and more subsidies. At last count, the government was running nearly 439 subsidy schemes, and direct payments to beneficiary bank accounts are believed to have saved around 90 thousand crore every year, according to former FM Arun Jaitley. For example, at the ground level, a simple ruse like neem-coating of urea has reduced the diversion of this highly-subsidised nitrogenous fertiliser to negligible amounts, and farmers no longer find it a problem procuring the amounts they genuinely need.

The launch of GST in July 2017 may not have been the smoothest of affairs, nor is the current tax structure optimal, with multiple tax rates and exemptions that effectively allow some categories of taxpayers to escape the net. But with over one crore registrations, and tax collections now crossing Rs 1 lakh crore a month with some consistency, improved monitoring of compliance will make it tougher to evade the tax net. As big GST payers get input tax credits only if their suppliers are also GST payers, over time the pressure to comply will become self-fulfilling. A related move involves eliminating shell companies that are often used to evade tax. They are being systematically weeded out. Last year, some 2.25 lakh shell companies which had not filed tax returns for two years running were put under the scanner, preparatory to deregistration and exit.

Some of the costs incurred in cleaning up have been huge. Over the last two years, the Modi government has pumped in massive amounts of capital into public sector banks. As at the end of March 2019, the government had recapitalised them to the tune of nearly Rs 2 lakh crore, and this year’s budget offers another dollop of Rs 70,000 crore – making it the biggest balance-sheet clean-up drive in India’s 50-year-old public sector banking history.

The write-off of bad loans does not, however, mean relief for borrowers, who are being taken to the cleaners by banks and other lenders. The Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) has been used like a blunt instrument to force corporate defaulters to either pay up or lose their companies to new owners. Ever since the IBC came into force in end-2016, some 1,858 cases of loan default were admitted for resolution by March 2019. The most important gain is time for recovery. Before the IBC came into being, the average time taken to resolve bankruptcy cases was six years; after IBC this came down to 317 days. Before the IBC came into being, the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Board of India (IBBI), the body tasked with nurturing the new bankruptcy ecosystem, reckoned that banks and lenders recovered roughly 22 per cent of their dues; after IBC this recovery has gone up to 43 per cent. In 2018-19, banks recovered nearly Rs 70,000 crore from defaulting companies that ended up at the NCLT. This year, if the Essar Steel, Bhushan Power and some more resolutions find fruition, similar amounts could easily be recovered. The Fugitive Economic Offenders Bill, passed in 2018, allows the government to take over the properties of absconders in India. Under this law, Vijay Mallya has already been declared an economic fugitive, and Nirav Modi and Mehul Choksi are fighting hard in Indian courts through their lawyers to avoid having their assets taken over in India.

This must rank as one of the biggest clean-up successes of NDA government under Mr. Modi, for lenders can exert pressure on borrowers only if politicians do not pressure them to help out crony businessmen.

Internal Structural Clean-Ups

The third prong of the Modi strategy – to gradually eliminate opportunities for corruption by increasing transparency in government procurements and allotment of scarce natural resources through auctions – is now slowly becoming the norm. Coal mines and spectrum have been auctioned in recent years only through an auction process, and increasingly government purchases are being made online through a cashless, paperless and contact-less process. The last is most important, for corruption happens only when sellers have to contact the government department for payments on supplies made.

According to an Economic Times report on GeM (the Government e-Marketplace), the government’s e-procurement platform now has 2.5 lakh vendors and 37,000 buyers from different government departments and public sector undertakings, offering over 10 lakh products and 12,798 services. Over the last three years since 2016, transactions worth Rs 32,000 crore went through GeM, and the target for 2019-20 is Rs 1 lakh crore. We are talking of an Amazon or Alibaba being built quietly, and no one has even noticed its potential to revolutionise e-procurement and reduce corruption and speed money payments to buyers. Between auctions to sell scarce national resources like spectrum and coal mines, and GeM, we are talking about a complete clean-up of the essential process of government interactions with sellers.

But what does one do with the vice-like grip of the bureaucracy, which is often a key source of corruption and non-transparent functioning? Given Mr. Modi’s dependence on the bureaucracy to deliver on his social and economic goals, how can any clean-up work if the people managing the show have questionable antecedents or poor efficiency levels? Government has been moving steadily here as well. In the last five years, the government has quietly eased out more than 300 bureaucrats – an annual rate of over 60 – using his power to prematurely retire them. After scanning the service records of more than 36,000 Group A and 82,000 Group B officers, 312 of them were retired prematurely. Simultaneously, in the last financial year, the government began lateral inductions to the bureaucracy, with nine experts being given five-year contracts at the level of joint secretary. This year, some 40 more could be inducted at levels of joint secretary and below.

Government under Mr. Modi is clearly moving slowly but surely to bring about structural reforms in the house even as he focuses on cleaning up the rest of the country. In everything we must not forget that structural reforms are ruthless, costs are borne upfront meanwhile rewards come much later. Government of India, under Mr. Modi, is ready to show the spine much similar to how Mr. Narsimha Rao did. Of course, that was under obligation and this is very much by choice!

The Nehru-Gandhis’ Obsession

While writing this piece, I was reminded of those set of events which eventually led to Jawaharlal Nehru’s successor and India’s second Prime Minister, Lal Bahadur Shastri being not allowed to move into the PM’s official residence – Teen Murti Bhavan – owing to Indira Gandhi’s insistence that the house be converted into a memorial for her father.

Teen Murti Bhavan, a verdant 30-acre property where peacocks still roam and mynas make their music, had been the residence of the commander-in-chief of the Indian armed forces during British rule, and Jawaharlal Nehru had moved there only in August 1948, for the first time occupying a space far grander than the bungalows other ministers in his government had (he had lived in one of those bungalows until then).

The past has a strange way of impinging on the present. This 1964 incident instantly drew me back into the hubbub of the Lok Sabha poll campaign, bringing to mind Rahul Gandhi’s comment about the armed forces not being the PM’s “personal property”.

The truth is that with Rahul as a contender for power, the past has a bearing certainly on the present, but on India’s future too. Rahul was chosen to contest the Amethi Lok Sabha seat in 2004 because he was a member of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty, and he was later appointed Congress general secretary, vice-president and president on the same grounds, becoming the fifth member of the clan to occupy the party’s top post. If he’s making a claim to power today, it’s again on account of his being the son, grandson and great-grandson of former PMs.

If lineage and the record of that lineage is a person’s calling card and family experience the sparkling point on his CV, then surely, in that same pack will be found by his political rivals other cards which would help them pose a challenge to the dynasty-led party.

And if Congress’s assertions are about Nehru’s vision, Indira’s will and Rajiv’s ushering of India into the computer era, an opponent’s offensive would be centred around their flaws and foibles. Moreover, if the family’s been in power, directly or indirectly (counting the terms of Congress PMs like PV Narasimha Rao and Manmohan Singh and non-Congress ones like Chandrashekhar, HD Deve Gowda and IK Gujral) for over 50 years out of 72, an audit is both inevitable and imperative.

That’s why those who are strenuously objecting to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s, and BJP’s, attacks on the Nehru-Gandhis are either missing the point or attempting to give credence to the dynasty’s misconceptions and denials.

The Nehru-Gandhis and the so-called ‘left-liberal’ social-political-intellectual elite they’ve patronised are more than approving of a discussion on the dynasty’s legacy so long as it doesn’t get inconvenient. When Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra talk of their forebears’ contribution to India and their sacrifices, their admirers want more of it. When the Marxists, who’ve had a neat and successful pact with the Congress establishment on the capture of institutions and creation of national narratives, hold forth on the Nehruvian order and how it nourished institutions, the inheritors are delighted.

The ‘cultural synthesis’ of the Marxists and the ruling establishment saw to it that the Nehru-Gandhis virtually monopolised free India’s consciousness. Textbooks were written to maximise their role in building India, while that of other eminent Indians was minimised; roads, places, landmarks and institutions named after members of the dynasty further amplified this image; and things reached a point where the dynasts were described, in strictly feudal terms ironic for those who swore by socialism, as India’s First Family.

Revolutionaries, reformists and other Congress stalwarts of the freedom movement like Patel were made to appear smaller, and if Mahatma Gandhi still remained symbolically tall, it was because invoking his name – and surname – was hugely advantageous.

Now, neither Rahul nor Priyanka can be blamed as individuals for where they were born. But they haven’t had issues with people’s “obsession” with their family if the result is abundant acclaim and applause, and there’s no denying the dynasty acquired, in time, a reputation for rewarding sycophancy and punishing non-conformists like Narasimha Rao.

They themselves aren’t known for linguistic restraint either. In his first speech as Congress president, Rahul referred to VD Savarkar as someone who kowtowed to the British, and he’s kept up this criticism; Congress on Twitter labelled Savarkar a “traitor”. Rahul’s freedom to offer his interpretation of history is complete. But then how is it such a monstrosity if, the moment Rahul talks of India entering an era of dictatorship, someone reminds him of an era of constitutional dictatorship? Or if the minute he talks of an individual assuming far too much centrality in decision-making, DK Barooah’s “Indira is India, India is Indira” comment is pulled out?

Or if, whenever Rahul mentions poverty, he’s told about a slogan raised nearly 50 years ago which had promised to end “garibi”? If national security’s an issue and 1971 a year to talk about, then 1962 can’t be too far behind; and if Hindu-Muslim tensions are up for discussion, then rivals can hardly be expected to help Congress skirt issues like Shah Bano, the ban on ‘Satanic Verses’ and reopening of the Babri Masjid’s locks. The same goes for a slur like “traitor”, thrown about carelessly by both sides.

The level of discourse must indeed be debated, and criticism of crude remarks is only fair. What isn’t is the righteous indignation all around. Regardless of the outcome of these elections, there’s every reason for the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty to have been a subject of debate during the campaign.

In the Middle of Everything: Bihar, Jharkhand, Haryana and Punjab

This is the, third of my five-part series, covering the next year’s Lok Sabha elections. In previous edition, I covered most of the states in Eastern Belt including West Bengal, Odisha and all states in the North Eastern region of India. This edition will cover the states of Bihar, Jharkhand, Punjab and Haryana. All these states combined, have 77 Lok Sabha seats.

BIHAR

It is a state which after UP, Maharashtra, West Bengal has highest number of Lok Sabha seats for taking. It was among the states that were completely swept in Modi Wave by BJP led NDA in 2014. In last general elections, NDA which comprised of Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP) apart from BJP, won 31/40 seats in Bihar in 2014. This was in contrast to last 20 years, when NDA always had Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) as a partner in Bihar. Apart from these players, you have Lalu Yadav’s RJD, now led ably by his son Tejaswi Yadav, is primary opposition party. Before 2019, a lot of political realignment is expected to happen. Tejaswi Yadav, is in talks to create a Mahagathbandhan like UPA, to fight NDA in 2019. This is likely to comprise apart from RJD, INC, Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustan Awam Morcha (HAM). RLSP also joined UPA, because he didn’t get respectable number of seats in NDA. This was due to JD(U) joining NDA this time around. Kushwaha along with another member Sharad Yadav, who is a veteran himself, and has floated Loktantrik Janata Dal (LJD) is in same league. Speculation is also rife that RLSP and LJD could merge to create a new entity. This would help both Sharad Yadav and Upendra Kushwaha, as both are former JD(U) men who don’t see eye to eye with Nitish Kumar, the incumbent CM. This merged entity has been offered a much more respectable number of seats by UPA. Independent MP, Pappu Yadav is also likely to be part of this alliance from INC quota. His wife Ranjeeta Ranjan is already a sitting MP from Supaul on INC ticket. Other than this former JNUSU President Kanhaiya Kumar is likely to be part of alliance from Begusarai on a CPI ticket. BSP can also be accommodated on one seat. As far the NDA is concerned, it is likely to consist of JD(U), LJP apart from BJP. One more party, which has emerged in recent times in Bihar is Mukesh Sahni’s Vikasheel Insaan Party (VIP). It is reportedly in talks with both NDA as well as UPA. It has considerable clout among NISHADs which have presence in 14 Lok Sabha seats. It is also to be noted that most of the current legislators of RLSP except Kushwaha himself, one MP and two MLAs in Legislative assemblies, are seen with NDA and are unlikely to leave it. They could be accommodated on JD(U) tickets.

In recent times, clout of BJP has suffered in Bihar since 2014. That is why it was keen on an alliance with its long-time partner, JDU. This is where Sushaasan Babu comes in. Especially if BJP is to counter the rainbow of coalition is being formed under RJD by Tejaswi Yadav. Nitish Kumar across all his 6 terms as CM has been able to create a separate Nitish Kumar Vote bank for himself. This vote bank is for the secular, people friendly CM who has been able to transform Jungle raj into a developing state. Something that very few leaders have achieved in last seventy years. So, even though his Kurmi Vote bank is only 2% of the state, his own vote bank pushes that figure to at-least 15-20%. Even in 2014 when JDU fought elections alone and won only two seats, its vote share was a good 18%. However, it is also to be noted that JDU’s secular image has taken a little of bit of a hit in recent times. Especially when he aligned with Lalu Yadav and a year later took a U-turn again to form government with BJP. JDU also got a boost recently when Prashant Kishor, political analyst who helped win Modi in 2014, joined JDU as its National Vice-President. Tejaswi Yadav, on the other hand, has been steadfastly moving towards a coalition that is bound to reduce affect NDA seats in 2014. Law and Order has become a major issue in recent times. All in all, NDA (BJP- 14, JDU- 12, LJP-4,) is expected to win around 30 seats in 2019. UPA (RJD-5, INC-2, Others- 3) on the other hand is expected to win around 10 seats this time around. Among all states, NDA seems much stronger this time around in Bihar even more than 2014.

JHARKHAND

In recent times, after few turbulent years post separation from Bihar in 2000, this state has been a stronghold of BJP. In 2014, BJP won 12/14 Lok Sabha seats that were there for taking. While INC was not able to win any seat, Shibu Soren’s Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) was only able to retain 2 seats in stronghold area. While a fourth small player, Babulal Marandi’s Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (JVM) could not win either. In this state as well, a rainbow coalition is being formed of JMM, INC, JVM and RJD under UPA. This is likely to be a cacophonous equation for BJP. NDA is likely to comprise BJP and All Jharkhand Students’ Union led by Sudesh Mahto. In 2019, seat sharing is going to be a big headache for UPA. It has to accommodate apart from regular parties, RJD and possibly a candidate of RLSP/LJD from Bihar, which wants the Hazaribagh Seat. Raghubar Das is facing a lot of criticism in the state and opposition unity is going to hurt BJP in Jharkhand. All in all, NDA is expected to win 6 seats (BJP-5, AJSU-1), down from 12 it won in 2014. UPA is expected to win the other 8 seats (JMM-3, INC-4, JVM-1).

PUNJAB

 This state has a habit of surprising everyone. In the peak of Modi Wave when NDA won everything across the Hindi-Heartland, NDA could not even win half of seats of the 13 seats in the state. On the other hand, AAP (Aam Aadmi Party), a party not even a year old won 4 seats in the state. INC won other 4 seats in the state, with Capt. Amrinder Singh, who is now the CM, defeating Union Finance Minister Arun Jaitley. This time around, I think there are very few surprises on offer. Like it did in 2017 assembly elections, INC is likely to sweep across the state. The other NDA constituent, Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) which was led by Prakash Singh Badal, 8-time CM of state, won 4 seats in 2014. This time around after being routed in assembly elections, it is expected to be routed again. The Firozpur MP of SAD has already left the party. It is a stronghold of party and he had been a 3-time MP. But speculation is that Sukhbir Badal, Prakash Badal’ son and SAD President, is ready to fight from this seat and that’s why the sitting MP left. He has been MP from the Faridkot seat, near the Firozpur seat. There is a revolt just around the corner in Akali Dal. It expected to not win any seat, apart from the traditional Badal family seats. AAP is in tartars after doing well in 2014. Two of its four MP have been suspended. Also whole of the state unit has revolted against Kejriwal, which means AAP has weakened a lot over last couple of years. What this means on ground is that it is expected to find it very difficult in 2019. INC’s revival after drubbing it received in 2014, started from Punjab in 2017. It is expected to continue to do better under Capt. Amrinder Singh. All in all, NDA is expected to win 3 seats (SAD-2, BJP-1), INC is expected to win around 9 seats in the state up from 4 it won in 2014. AAP is expected to win 1 seat, due to weakened presence in the state. It will also not be surprising that AAP fails to open account and INC touches double digit.

HARYANA   

It is a complex state which has many players. Primary regional party in state, apart from the traditional National parties, is OP Chautala’s INLD (Indian National Lok Dal). It was previously part of NDA but left NDA some time back. OP Chautala, former CM of Haryana, is son of former Deputy PM, Chaudhary Devilal. For 2019, it had aligned with Mayawati’s BSP, but latter broke the alliance and is now in alliance with RK Saini’s party. Primary party which has ruled Haryana has been INC, led by Bhupendra Singh Hooda. However, BJP has in recent years been able to win the state. In 2014, BJP won 7 of the 10 seats in Haryana. INC won its traditional stronghold of Rohtak. While INLD won 2 seats in Hisar region. INLD however, due to being divided in two factions has weakened in recent times. This will directly help both INC and BJP. There is anti-incumbency against the Khattar government regarding a lot of social issues as well as Law and Order problem. But what BJP has been able to do in recent years in Haryana is polarisation of Non-Jat Votes. This will help it overcome the anti-incumbency in state. Weakling of INLD along with PM Modi’s charisma is likely to help BJP survive a few seats in Haryana. Jind by poll was the biggest example of this, where for the first time a BJP won the seat. This was due to division on Jat votes among JJP, INC and INLD. The division of INLD could break its back forever. There is more sympathy for Dushyant Chautala’s JJP, which could retain the Hisar seat. Kuldeep Bishnoi, son of former CM Bhajanlal, who floated HJC and allied with BJP has merged with INC. JJP will eat into vote-share of both national parties but majorly INLD and in that situation will help BJP, emerge as single largest party. Even with anti-incumbency against state government, it will do well to retain 7 seats in the state. INC is expected to win 2 seats, this time around. INLD is likely to not win due to division of votes by JJP and is likely to not win any seat. JJP could win Hisar, its stronghold, that too with a lot of difficulties.

So, of the 77 Lok Sabha seats up for grab, NDA is expected to win 46 seats (BJP- 26, SAD-3, AJSU-1, JDU- 12, LJP-4,) while UPA is expected to win 29 seats (INC-17, RJD-5, Others- 7). AAP and JJP are expected to win 1 seat each.

Whose Sun will Rise in the East? West Bengal, Odisha, North Eastern States (7 sisters+ Sikkim)

This is the, second of my five-part series, covering the next year’s Lok Sabha elections. In previous edition, I looked at all the Union Territories including Delhi and the State of Jammu and Kashmir. This edition will cover the state of West Bengal, Odisha and all North Eastern States which include Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Manipur, Tripura, Nagaland, Mizoram, Sikkim. All these states combined have 88 Lok Sabha seats.

WEST BENGAL

This state has always been the first place where the revolutions begin. People familiar with the Indian National Movement would certify to it. West Bengal was the bastion of CPI(M) for almost four decades. Jyoti Basu is the second longest serving CM of any state in India, first being PK Chamling of Sikkim. But to hold onto a state like Bengal, speaks volumes of influence CPM had in the state. However, everything changed when Mamata Bannerjee led All India Trinamool Congress (AITMC) breached this fortress after four decades. Now she herself is in a similar position like Jyoti Basu (sort of!). She has managed to hold Bengal and has been winning election after election, from Panchayat to Parliament. West Bengal has 42 Lok Sabha seats. After UP and Maharashtra, it is the third biggest state in terms of Lok Sabha seats. INC’s golden days were during Pt. Nehru’s era. Post that it was delegated to the second place by Jyoti Basu’s CPM. In recent years during 2009 Lok Sabha, AITMC was a constituent of UPA and won 19 seats along side INC which won 6. However, in 2014 Didi, dumped INC and won a historic 34/42 Lok Sabha seats. INC won 4 seats and CPM and BJP both won 2 each. In recent times, where Left front and INC have been at a nadir, BJP has used that space and is now the principle opposition party in the state. That being said, Didi is still the force majeure in the state. BJP was boosted in recent times when TMC’s master strategist and number two in party, Mukul Roy, joined the saffron outfit. This was a big boost for the party. It is mostly targeting the tribal areas and non-Bengali population in the state. It is likely to make big strides in the state this time around. It is likely to win seats in North Bengal and a few seats in South Bengal. Among the two seats that BJP won last time around, Darjeeling seat is heavily affected by Gorkha Morcha, which is now backing Mamata Bannerjee, unlike last time when it backed BJP. INC has declined from last time and is likely to lose seats from 4 it won in 2014. CPM is almost finished in Bengal. It won two seats last time around. It is likely to not win any seat this time around. Also, the speculation is rife that the all mercurial Dada, Former Indian Captain Sourav Ganguly, could join BJP this time around before polls. BJP had offered him ticket in 2014 as well, which he had refused. But since then, on one side he has assumed presidentship of CAB and a more social role in state while on the other BJP has also made strides in the state. Him joining is going to give BJP a mercurial leader in Bengal, something which they have been missing. So, in Bengal, it could be a battle of Didi vs Dada.

All in all, AITMC is likely to win around 28 seats this time around. It is on the back of Mamata Bannerjee’s popularity in the state. BJP is going to be the biggest gainer, as far as seats are concerned. Although it is expected to lose the Darjeeling seat, it will gain big and is expected to win around 10-11 seats this time around. INC is likely to win 2-3 seats, in and around its stronghold of Maldaha region. CPM is expected to draw a blank this time around. However, situation could change if there is a pre-poll alliance between the CPM and Congress party. If that happens, it can propel the alliance to win 6-7 seats on its own. Thereby majorly denting Trinamool Congress.  

NORTH EASTERN STATES (Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Manipur, Tripura, Nagaland, Mizoram, Sikkim)

These 8 above mentioned states combined form the North Eastern region of India. Government of India in 2014 had formed a separate ministry for the development of North Eastern region. There are combined 25 Lok Sabha seats across the 8 states. However, majority of the them, 14 to be precise, fall in the state of Assam. It is a state which for 15 years had a Congress government under Tarun Gogoi. However, BJP led NDA was able to unseat him in 2016. In 2014, BJP won 7 of the 14 seats for the first time. Subsequently, Prafulla Mahanta’s Assom Gana Parishad (AGP) and Bodoland People’s Party (BPP) joined it as partners. This is the lot that will fight elections together and comprise of NDA in Assam. Citizenship bill could be a big hurdle for BJP in North-East this time around. There have been massive protests, against it. AGP even left NDA because of this issue. BJP will have to keep this issue on the backseat in order to win big in north east. INC on the other hand was decimated here in last elections, as was the case across India. It won 3 seats last time around. Since then it has also lost the assembly elections. Another regional player which won the 3 seats last time around was Badruddin Ajmal’s All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF). It has strong Muslim base in state. INC is likely to ally with AIUDF in the next elections. BJP’s presence has increased significantly since last time and it is expected to increase its vote share and seats this time around. NDA combined is likely to win 9-10 seats this time around, up from 7 on the back of newfound allies. INC and AIUDF are expected to win 2 seats each.

In Arunachal Pradesh, where there are two Lok Sabha seats. It already has Kiran Rijiju who is also MoS for Home, as a MP from Arunachal West. It is likely to retain that seat. In Manipur, both seats were won by the INC in 2014. BJP is expected to win at least one of the two seats. Other is expected to go to INC. Similar situation is in Tripura, where BJP, for the first time, formed government in state recently. It is expected to snatch both the seats from CPM in Tripura. In Meghalaya, NPP (National People’s Party) is expected to retain the Tura seat. It has been held by the Sangma family for decades. NPP is part of NDA and is ruling the state. INC is expected to retain the Shillong seat. In Nagaland, Nephio Rio’s NDPP a constituent of NDA is expected to win the lone seat comfortably. In Mizoram, MNF (Mizo National Front) which is also a member of NDA at centre, is expected to wrestle the lone seat from INC, this time around. In Sikkim, PK Chamling’s SDF (Sikkim Democratic front) has been holding the lone seat from years. The situation is unlikely to change. All in all, NDA is expected to win 17 seats in the North east region out of a possible 25. Meanwhile UPA is likely to get 8 seats.

ODISHA

This is also one of the states in the Eastern India. It has for the last 20 years been ruled by Naveen Patnaik’s BJD (Biju Janata Dal). It was part of the NDA during Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s regime. However, they left NDA in 2009. INC had been the principle opposition party to BJD all along in the state. However, everything changed in 2014. In 2014, INC drew a blank in 21 Lok Sabha seats of the state. Of the 21, 20 were won by the ruling BJD and the lone seat was won by Union Minister Jual Oram on a BJP ticket. This has further led to decimation of INC in the state. It has reduced considerably, and BJP has in the meantime gained the position of principle opposition party in the state. But unlike, West Bengal what BJP does have in Odisha is a face. Union Minister Dharmendra Pradhan is the party’s face in the state. In last 2-3 years, BJP has gained significant ground in the state and is in striking distance to form government in the next elections. What this also means is that party will also do well as compared to last general elections. Naveen Patnaik has been losing ground rapidly in the state. BJP got a boost recently when Aparajita Sarangi, a former Union Secretary joined BJP recently. Baijayant Jay Panda, Industrialist and 3-time Lok Sabha MP from Kendrappa, who left BJD recently is also likely to join BJP. There is also news of PM Modi contesting from Puri Lok Sabha seat, apart from Varanasi. This will be a huge boost for the saffron party which will also in turn affect the adjoining areas in state. All in all, BJP is expected to win 10 seats this time around, even without PM Modi contesting from Puri seat. BJD is expected to win the other 11 seats, down by almost half from last time. INC, like last time, is likely to not win any seat in the state.

Combining results from all the 88 Lok Sabha seats show that BJP led NDA will be the biggest gainer in these states and is expected to win almost triple of what it won in 2014 in the Eastern region. Of the 88 seats, NDA is expected to win 38 seats (BJP-31, Other NDA constituents-7) while UPA is expected to win 11 seats (INC-9, Others-2). Mamata Bannerjee’s TMC is expected to win 28 seats while Naveen Patnaik’s BJD is expected to win 11 seats.