This is the, second of my five-part series, covering
the next year’s Lok Sabha elections. In previous edition, I looked at all the
Union Territories including Delhi and the State of Jammu and Kashmir. This
edition will cover the state of West Bengal, Odisha and all North Eastern
States which include Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Manipur, Tripura,
Nagaland, Mizoram, Sikkim. All these states combined have 88 Lok Sabha seats.
WEST BENGAL
This state has always been the first place where the
revolutions begin. People familiar with the Indian National Movement would
certify to it. West Bengal was the bastion of CPI(M) for almost four decades.
Jyoti Basu is the second longest serving CM of any state in India, first being
PK Chamling of Sikkim. But to hold onto a state like Bengal, speaks volumes of influence
CPM had in the state. However, everything changed when Mamata Bannerjee led All
India Trinamool Congress (AITMC) breached this fortress after four decades. Now
she herself is in a similar position like Jyoti Basu (sort of!). She has
managed to hold Bengal and has been winning election after election, from
Panchayat to Parliament. West Bengal has 42 Lok Sabha seats. After UP and
Maharashtra, it is the third biggest state in terms of Lok Sabha seats. INC’s
golden days were during Pt. Nehru’s era. Post that it was delegated to the second
place by Jyoti Basu’s CPM. In recent years during 2009 Lok Sabha, AITMC was a
constituent of UPA and won 19 seats along side INC which won 6. However, in
2014 Didi, dumped INC and won a
historic 34/42 Lok Sabha seats. INC won 4 seats and CPM and BJP both won 2
each. In recent times, where Left front and INC have been at a nadir, BJP has
used that space and is now the principle opposition party in the state. That
being said, Didi is still the force
majeure in the state. BJP was boosted in recent times when TMC’s master
strategist and number two in party, Mukul Roy, joined the saffron outfit. This was
a big boost for the party. It is mostly targeting the tribal areas and non-Bengali
population in the state. It is likely to make big strides in the state this
time around. It is likely to win seats in North Bengal and a few seats in South
Bengal. Among the two seats that BJP won last time around, Darjeeling seat is
heavily affected by Gorkha Morcha, which is now backing Mamata Bannerjee,
unlike last time when it backed BJP. INC has declined from last time and is
likely to lose seats from 4 it won in 2014. CPM is almost finished in Bengal.
It won two seats last time around. It is likely to not win any seat this time
around. Also, the speculation is rife that the all mercurial Dada, Former Indian Captain Sourav
Ganguly, could join BJP this time around before polls. BJP had offered him
ticket in 2014 as well, which he had refused. But since then, on one side he
has assumed presidentship of CAB and a more social role in state while on the
other BJP has also made strides in the state. Him joining is going to give BJP
a mercurial leader in Bengal, something which they have been missing. So, in Bengal,
it could be a battle of Didi vs Dada.
All in all, AITMC is likely to win around 28 seats
this time around. It is on the back of Mamata Bannerjee’s popularity in the
state. BJP is going to be the biggest gainer, as far as seats are concerned.
Although it is expected to lose the Darjeeling seat, it will gain big and is
expected to win around 10-11 seats this time around. INC is likely to win 2-3
seats, in and around its stronghold of Maldaha region. CPM is expected to draw
a blank this time around. However, situation could change if there is a
pre-poll alliance between the CPM and Congress party. If that happens, it can
propel the alliance to win 6-7 seats on its own. Thereby majorly denting
Trinamool Congress.
NORTH EASTERN STATES
(Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Manipur, Tripura, Nagaland, Mizoram,
Sikkim)
These 8 above mentioned states combined form the North
Eastern region of India. Government of India in 2014 had formed a separate
ministry for the development of North Eastern region. There are combined 25 Lok
Sabha seats across the 8 states. However, majority of the them, 14 to be
precise, fall in the state of Assam. It is a state which for 15 years had a
Congress government under Tarun Gogoi. However, BJP led NDA was able to unseat
him in 2016. In 2014, BJP won 7 of the 14 seats for the first time.
Subsequently, Prafulla Mahanta’s Assom Gana Parishad (AGP) and Bodoland
People’s Party (BPP) joined it as partners. This is the lot that will fight
elections together and comprise of NDA in Assam. Citizenship bill could be a
big hurdle for BJP in North-East this time around. There have been massive
protests, against it. AGP even left NDA because of this issue. BJP will have to
keep this issue on the backseat in order to win big in north east. INC on the
other hand was decimated here in last elections, as was the case across India.
It won 3 seats last time around. Since then it has also lost the assembly
elections. Another regional player which won the 3 seats last time around was
Badruddin Ajmal’s All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF). It has strong
Muslim base in state. INC is likely to ally with AIUDF in the next elections.
BJP’s presence has increased significantly since last time and it is expected
to increase its vote share and seats this time around. NDA combined is likely
to win 9-10 seats this time around, up from 7 on the back of newfound allies. INC
and AIUDF are expected to win 2 seats each.
In Arunachal Pradesh, where there are two Lok Sabha
seats. It already has Kiran Rijiju who is also MoS for Home, as a MP from Arunachal
West. It is likely to retain that seat. In Manipur, both seats were won by the
INC in 2014. BJP is expected to win at least one of the two seats. Other is
expected to go to INC. Similar situation is in Tripura, where BJP, for the
first time, formed government in state recently. It is expected to snatch both the
seats from CPM in Tripura. In Meghalaya, NPP (National People’s Party) is
expected to retain the Tura seat. It has been held by the Sangma family for
decades. NPP is part of NDA and is ruling the state. INC is expected to retain
the Shillong seat. In Nagaland, Nephio Rio’s NDPP a constituent of NDA is
expected to win the lone seat comfortably. In Mizoram, MNF (Mizo National
Front) which is also a member of NDA at centre, is expected to wrestle the lone
seat from INC, this time around. In Sikkim, PK Chamling’s SDF (Sikkim
Democratic front) has been holding the lone seat from years. The situation is
unlikely to change. All in all, NDA is expected to win 17 seats in the North
east region out of a possible 25. Meanwhile UPA is likely to get 8 seats.
ODISHA
This is also one of the states in the Eastern India.
It has for the last 20 years been ruled by Naveen Patnaik’s BJD (Biju Janata
Dal). It was part of the NDA during Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s regime. However,
they left NDA in 2009. INC had been the principle opposition party to BJD all
along in the state. However, everything changed in 2014. In 2014, INC drew a
blank in 21 Lok Sabha seats of the state. Of the 21, 20 were won by the ruling
BJD and the lone seat was won by Union Minister Jual Oram on a BJP ticket. This
has further led to decimation of INC in the state. It has reduced considerably,
and BJP has in the meantime gained the position of principle opposition party
in the state. But unlike, West Bengal what BJP does have in Odisha is a face.
Union Minister Dharmendra Pradhan is the party’s face in the state. In last 2-3
years, BJP has gained significant ground in the state and is in striking
distance to form government in the next elections. What this also means is that
party will also do well as compared to last general elections. Naveen Patnaik
has been losing ground rapidly in the state. BJP got a boost recently when
Aparajita Sarangi, a former Union Secretary joined BJP recently. Baijayant Jay
Panda, Industrialist and 3-time Lok Sabha MP from Kendrappa, who left BJD
recently is also likely to join BJP. There is also news of PM Modi contesting
from Puri Lok Sabha seat, apart from Varanasi. This will be a huge boost for
the saffron party which will also in turn affect the adjoining areas in state.
All in all, BJP is expected to win 10 seats this time around, even without PM
Modi contesting from Puri seat. BJD is expected to win the other 11 seats, down
by almost half from last time. INC, like last time, is likely to not win any
seat in the state.
Combining results from all the 88 Lok Sabha seats show
that BJP led NDA will be the biggest gainer in these states and is expected to
win almost triple of what it won in 2014 in the Eastern region. Of the 88
seats, NDA is expected to win 38 seats (BJP-31, Other NDA constituents-7) while
UPA is expected to win 11 seats (INC-9, Others-2). Mamata Bannerjee’s TMC is
expected to win 28 seats while Naveen Patnaik’s BJD is expected to win 11
seats.
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