In the Middle of Everything: Bihar, Jharkhand, Haryana and Punjab

This is the, third of my five-part series, covering the next year’s Lok Sabha elections. In previous edition, I covered most of the states in Eastern Belt including West Bengal, Odisha and all states in the North Eastern region of India. This edition will cover the states of Bihar, Jharkhand, Punjab and Haryana. All these states combined, have 77 Lok Sabha seats.

BIHAR

It is a state which after UP, Maharashtra, West Bengal has highest number of Lok Sabha seats for taking. It was among the states that were completely swept in Modi Wave by BJP led NDA in 2014. In last general elections, NDA which comprised of Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP) apart from BJP, won 31/40 seats in Bihar in 2014. This was in contrast to last 20 years, when NDA always had Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) as a partner in Bihar. Apart from these players, you have Lalu Yadav’s RJD, now led ably by his son Tejaswi Yadav, is primary opposition party. Before 2019, a lot of political realignment is expected to happen. Tejaswi Yadav, is in talks to create a Mahagathbandhan like UPA, to fight NDA in 2019. This is likely to comprise apart from RJD, INC, Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustan Awam Morcha (HAM). RLSP also joined UPA, because he didn’t get respectable number of seats in NDA. This was due to JD(U) joining NDA this time around. Kushwaha along with another member Sharad Yadav, who is a veteran himself, and has floated Loktantrik Janata Dal (LJD) is in same league. Speculation is also rife that RLSP and LJD could merge to create a new entity. This would help both Sharad Yadav and Upendra Kushwaha, as both are former JD(U) men who don’t see eye to eye with Nitish Kumar, the incumbent CM. This merged entity has been offered a much more respectable number of seats by UPA. Independent MP, Pappu Yadav is also likely to be part of this alliance from INC quota. His wife Ranjeeta Ranjan is already a sitting MP from Supaul on INC ticket. Other than this former JNUSU President Kanhaiya Kumar is likely to be part of alliance from Begusarai on a CPI ticket. BSP can also be accommodated on one seat. As far the NDA is concerned, it is likely to consist of JD(U), LJP apart from BJP. One more party, which has emerged in recent times in Bihar is Mukesh Sahni’s Vikasheel Insaan Party (VIP). It is reportedly in talks with both NDA as well as UPA. It has considerable clout among NISHADs which have presence in 14 Lok Sabha seats. It is also to be noted that most of the current legislators of RLSP except Kushwaha himself, one MP and two MLAs in Legislative assemblies, are seen with NDA and are unlikely to leave it. They could be accommodated on JD(U) tickets.

In recent times, clout of BJP has suffered in Bihar since 2014. That is why it was keen on an alliance with its long-time partner, JDU. This is where Sushaasan Babu comes in. Especially if BJP is to counter the rainbow of coalition is being formed under RJD by Tejaswi Yadav. Nitish Kumar across all his 6 terms as CM has been able to create a separate Nitish Kumar Vote bank for himself. This vote bank is for the secular, people friendly CM who has been able to transform Jungle raj into a developing state. Something that very few leaders have achieved in last seventy years. So, even though his Kurmi Vote bank is only 2% of the state, his own vote bank pushes that figure to at-least 15-20%. Even in 2014 when JDU fought elections alone and won only two seats, its vote share was a good 18%. However, it is also to be noted that JDU’s secular image has taken a little of bit of a hit in recent times. Especially when he aligned with Lalu Yadav and a year later took a U-turn again to form government with BJP. JDU also got a boost recently when Prashant Kishor, political analyst who helped win Modi in 2014, joined JDU as its National Vice-President. Tejaswi Yadav, on the other hand, has been steadfastly moving towards a coalition that is bound to reduce affect NDA seats in 2014. Law and Order has become a major issue in recent times. All in all, NDA (BJP- 14, JDU- 12, LJP-4,) is expected to win around 30 seats in 2019. UPA (RJD-5, INC-2, Others- 3) on the other hand is expected to win around 10 seats this time around. Among all states, NDA seems much stronger this time around in Bihar even more than 2014.

JHARKHAND

In recent times, after few turbulent years post separation from Bihar in 2000, this state has been a stronghold of BJP. In 2014, BJP won 12/14 Lok Sabha seats that were there for taking. While INC was not able to win any seat, Shibu Soren’s Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) was only able to retain 2 seats in stronghold area. While a fourth small player, Babulal Marandi’s Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (JVM) could not win either. In this state as well, a rainbow coalition is being formed of JMM, INC, JVM and RJD under UPA. This is likely to be a cacophonous equation for BJP. NDA is likely to comprise BJP and All Jharkhand Students’ Union led by Sudesh Mahto. In 2019, seat sharing is going to be a big headache for UPA. It has to accommodate apart from regular parties, RJD and possibly a candidate of RLSP/LJD from Bihar, which wants the Hazaribagh Seat. Raghubar Das is facing a lot of criticism in the state and opposition unity is going to hurt BJP in Jharkhand. All in all, NDA is expected to win 6 seats (BJP-5, AJSU-1), down from 12 it won in 2014. UPA is expected to win the other 8 seats (JMM-3, INC-4, JVM-1).

PUNJAB

 This state has a habit of surprising everyone. In the peak of Modi Wave when NDA won everything across the Hindi-Heartland, NDA could not even win half of seats of the 13 seats in the state. On the other hand, AAP (Aam Aadmi Party), a party not even a year old won 4 seats in the state. INC won other 4 seats in the state, with Capt. Amrinder Singh, who is now the CM, defeating Union Finance Minister Arun Jaitley. This time around, I think there are very few surprises on offer. Like it did in 2017 assembly elections, INC is likely to sweep across the state. The other NDA constituent, Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) which was led by Prakash Singh Badal, 8-time CM of state, won 4 seats in 2014. This time around after being routed in assembly elections, it is expected to be routed again. The Firozpur MP of SAD has already left the party. It is a stronghold of party and he had been a 3-time MP. But speculation is that Sukhbir Badal, Prakash Badal’ son and SAD President, is ready to fight from this seat and that’s why the sitting MP left. He has been MP from the Faridkot seat, near the Firozpur seat. There is a revolt just around the corner in Akali Dal. It expected to not win any seat, apart from the traditional Badal family seats. AAP is in tartars after doing well in 2014. Two of its four MP have been suspended. Also whole of the state unit has revolted against Kejriwal, which means AAP has weakened a lot over last couple of years. What this means on ground is that it is expected to find it very difficult in 2019. INC’s revival after drubbing it received in 2014, started from Punjab in 2017. It is expected to continue to do better under Capt. Amrinder Singh. All in all, NDA is expected to win 3 seats (SAD-2, BJP-1), INC is expected to win around 9 seats in the state up from 4 it won in 2014. AAP is expected to win 1 seat, due to weakened presence in the state. It will also not be surprising that AAP fails to open account and INC touches double digit.

HARYANA   

It is a complex state which has many players. Primary regional party in state, apart from the traditional National parties, is OP Chautala’s INLD (Indian National Lok Dal). It was previously part of NDA but left NDA some time back. OP Chautala, former CM of Haryana, is son of former Deputy PM, Chaudhary Devilal. For 2019, it had aligned with Mayawati’s BSP, but latter broke the alliance and is now in alliance with RK Saini’s party. Primary party which has ruled Haryana has been INC, led by Bhupendra Singh Hooda. However, BJP has in recent years been able to win the state. In 2014, BJP won 7 of the 10 seats in Haryana. INC won its traditional stronghold of Rohtak. While INLD won 2 seats in Hisar region. INLD however, due to being divided in two factions has weakened in recent times. This will directly help both INC and BJP. There is anti-incumbency against the Khattar government regarding a lot of social issues as well as Law and Order problem. But what BJP has been able to do in recent years in Haryana is polarisation of Non-Jat Votes. This will help it overcome the anti-incumbency in state. Weakling of INLD along with PM Modi’s charisma is likely to help BJP survive a few seats in Haryana. Jind by poll was the biggest example of this, where for the first time a BJP won the seat. This was due to division on Jat votes among JJP, INC and INLD. The division of INLD could break its back forever. There is more sympathy for Dushyant Chautala’s JJP, which could retain the Hisar seat. Kuldeep Bishnoi, son of former CM Bhajanlal, who floated HJC and allied with BJP has merged with INC. JJP will eat into vote-share of both national parties but majorly INLD and in that situation will help BJP, emerge as single largest party. Even with anti-incumbency against state government, it will do well to retain 7 seats in the state. INC is expected to win 2 seats, this time around. INLD is likely to not win due to division of votes by JJP and is likely to not win any seat. JJP could win Hisar, its stronghold, that too with a lot of difficulties.

So, of the 77 Lok Sabha seats up for grab, NDA is expected to win 46 seats (BJP- 26, SAD-3, AJSU-1, JDU- 12, LJP-4,) while UPA is expected to win 29 seats (INC-17, RJD-5, Others- 7). AAP and JJP are expected to win 1 seat each.

Whose Sun will Rise in the East? West Bengal, Odisha, North Eastern States (7 sisters+ Sikkim)

This is the, second of my five-part series, covering the next year’s Lok Sabha elections. In previous edition, I looked at all the Union Territories including Delhi and the State of Jammu and Kashmir. This edition will cover the state of West Bengal, Odisha and all North Eastern States which include Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Manipur, Tripura, Nagaland, Mizoram, Sikkim. All these states combined have 88 Lok Sabha seats.

WEST BENGAL

This state has always been the first place where the revolutions begin. People familiar with the Indian National Movement would certify to it. West Bengal was the bastion of CPI(M) for almost four decades. Jyoti Basu is the second longest serving CM of any state in India, first being PK Chamling of Sikkim. But to hold onto a state like Bengal, speaks volumes of influence CPM had in the state. However, everything changed when Mamata Bannerjee led All India Trinamool Congress (AITMC) breached this fortress after four decades. Now she herself is in a similar position like Jyoti Basu (sort of!). She has managed to hold Bengal and has been winning election after election, from Panchayat to Parliament. West Bengal has 42 Lok Sabha seats. After UP and Maharashtra, it is the third biggest state in terms of Lok Sabha seats. INC’s golden days were during Pt. Nehru’s era. Post that it was delegated to the second place by Jyoti Basu’s CPM. In recent years during 2009 Lok Sabha, AITMC was a constituent of UPA and won 19 seats along side INC which won 6. However, in 2014 Didi, dumped INC and won a historic 34/42 Lok Sabha seats. INC won 4 seats and CPM and BJP both won 2 each. In recent times, where Left front and INC have been at a nadir, BJP has used that space and is now the principle opposition party in the state. That being said, Didi is still the force majeure in the state. BJP was boosted in recent times when TMC’s master strategist and number two in party, Mukul Roy, joined the saffron outfit. This was a big boost for the party. It is mostly targeting the tribal areas and non-Bengali population in the state. It is likely to make big strides in the state this time around. It is likely to win seats in North Bengal and a few seats in South Bengal. Among the two seats that BJP won last time around, Darjeeling seat is heavily affected by Gorkha Morcha, which is now backing Mamata Bannerjee, unlike last time when it backed BJP. INC has declined from last time and is likely to lose seats from 4 it won in 2014. CPM is almost finished in Bengal. It won two seats last time around. It is likely to not win any seat this time around. Also, the speculation is rife that the all mercurial Dada, Former Indian Captain Sourav Ganguly, could join BJP this time around before polls. BJP had offered him ticket in 2014 as well, which he had refused. But since then, on one side he has assumed presidentship of CAB and a more social role in state while on the other BJP has also made strides in the state. Him joining is going to give BJP a mercurial leader in Bengal, something which they have been missing. So, in Bengal, it could be a battle of Didi vs Dada.

All in all, AITMC is likely to win around 28 seats this time around. It is on the back of Mamata Bannerjee’s popularity in the state. BJP is going to be the biggest gainer, as far as seats are concerned. Although it is expected to lose the Darjeeling seat, it will gain big and is expected to win around 10-11 seats this time around. INC is likely to win 2-3 seats, in and around its stronghold of Maldaha region. CPM is expected to draw a blank this time around. However, situation could change if there is a pre-poll alliance between the CPM and Congress party. If that happens, it can propel the alliance to win 6-7 seats on its own. Thereby majorly denting Trinamool Congress.  

NORTH EASTERN STATES (Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Manipur, Tripura, Nagaland, Mizoram, Sikkim)

These 8 above mentioned states combined form the North Eastern region of India. Government of India in 2014 had formed a separate ministry for the development of North Eastern region. There are combined 25 Lok Sabha seats across the 8 states. However, majority of the them, 14 to be precise, fall in the state of Assam. It is a state which for 15 years had a Congress government under Tarun Gogoi. However, BJP led NDA was able to unseat him in 2016. In 2014, BJP won 7 of the 14 seats for the first time. Subsequently, Prafulla Mahanta’s Assom Gana Parishad (AGP) and Bodoland People’s Party (BPP) joined it as partners. This is the lot that will fight elections together and comprise of NDA in Assam. Citizenship bill could be a big hurdle for BJP in North-East this time around. There have been massive protests, against it. AGP even left NDA because of this issue. BJP will have to keep this issue on the backseat in order to win big in north east. INC on the other hand was decimated here in last elections, as was the case across India. It won 3 seats last time around. Since then it has also lost the assembly elections. Another regional player which won the 3 seats last time around was Badruddin Ajmal’s All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF). It has strong Muslim base in state. INC is likely to ally with AIUDF in the next elections. BJP’s presence has increased significantly since last time and it is expected to increase its vote share and seats this time around. NDA combined is likely to win 9-10 seats this time around, up from 7 on the back of newfound allies. INC and AIUDF are expected to win 2 seats each.

In Arunachal Pradesh, where there are two Lok Sabha seats. It already has Kiran Rijiju who is also MoS for Home, as a MP from Arunachal West. It is likely to retain that seat. In Manipur, both seats were won by the INC in 2014. BJP is expected to win at least one of the two seats. Other is expected to go to INC. Similar situation is in Tripura, where BJP, for the first time, formed government in state recently. It is expected to snatch both the seats from CPM in Tripura. In Meghalaya, NPP (National People’s Party) is expected to retain the Tura seat. It has been held by the Sangma family for decades. NPP is part of NDA and is ruling the state. INC is expected to retain the Shillong seat. In Nagaland, Nephio Rio’s NDPP a constituent of NDA is expected to win the lone seat comfortably. In Mizoram, MNF (Mizo National Front) which is also a member of NDA at centre, is expected to wrestle the lone seat from INC, this time around. In Sikkim, PK Chamling’s SDF (Sikkim Democratic front) has been holding the lone seat from years. The situation is unlikely to change. All in all, NDA is expected to win 17 seats in the North east region out of a possible 25. Meanwhile UPA is likely to get 8 seats.

ODISHA

This is also one of the states in the Eastern India. It has for the last 20 years been ruled by Naveen Patnaik’s BJD (Biju Janata Dal). It was part of the NDA during Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s regime. However, they left NDA in 2009. INC had been the principle opposition party to BJD all along in the state. However, everything changed in 2014. In 2014, INC drew a blank in 21 Lok Sabha seats of the state. Of the 21, 20 were won by the ruling BJD and the lone seat was won by Union Minister Jual Oram on a BJP ticket. This has further led to decimation of INC in the state. It has reduced considerably, and BJP has in the meantime gained the position of principle opposition party in the state. But unlike, West Bengal what BJP does have in Odisha is a face. Union Minister Dharmendra Pradhan is the party’s face in the state. In last 2-3 years, BJP has gained significant ground in the state and is in striking distance to form government in the next elections. What this also means is that party will also do well as compared to last general elections. Naveen Patnaik has been losing ground rapidly in the state. BJP got a boost recently when Aparajita Sarangi, a former Union Secretary joined BJP recently. Baijayant Jay Panda, Industrialist and 3-time Lok Sabha MP from Kendrappa, who left BJD recently is also likely to join BJP. There is also news of PM Modi contesting from Puri Lok Sabha seat, apart from Varanasi. This will be a huge boost for the saffron party which will also in turn affect the adjoining areas in state. All in all, BJP is expected to win 10 seats this time around, even without PM Modi contesting from Puri seat. BJD is expected to win the other 11 seats, down by almost half from last time. INC, like last time, is likely to not win any seat in the state.

Combining results from all the 88 Lok Sabha seats show that BJP led NDA will be the biggest gainer in these states and is expected to win almost triple of what it won in 2014 in the Eastern region. Of the 88 seats, NDA is expected to win 38 seats (BJP-31, Other NDA constituents-7) while UPA is expected to win 11 seats (INC-9, Others-2). Mamata Bannerjee’s TMC is expected to win 28 seats while Naveen Patnaik’s BJD is expected to win 11 seats.

The Priyanka Factor: How will it affect UP in the upcoming General Elections

Political Pundits often say, “Politics is all about optics”. This phrase holds key for the Indian National Congress in Uttar Pradesh in the upcoming general elections. On a breezy January afternoon last month, Rahul Gandhi appointed Priyanka Gandhi Vadra and Jyotiraditya Scindia as AICC General Secretaries, in-charge of Eastern UP and Western UP respectively. It is commonly said in political corridors that road to Delhi, goes from Lucknow. UP was the state which was primarily responsible for electing Mr. Modi as the PM in the first place. BJP led NDA won a whooping 73 seats in 2014, reducing other parties such as SP and INC to their family seats. Since then a lot of water has passed in Gomti. In an earlier post on this blog (titled THE BIG BANG STATE), I had discussed in detail, political prospects of all parties in UP for upcoming polls.

Continuing from there, why do we need to look things differently now in UP? Since this piece is mostly about Priyanka Vadra and INC’s poll prospects post announcements, I shall focus on the same. First, we need to revisit the current situation of the party in UP. It was reduced to Amethi and Raebareli in 2014 elections, during the Modi wave. But its deterioration started in UP, when the Mandal era began. ND Tiwari was the last CM from the INC in the late 1980s. This continued till 2017, when it was reduced to just 7 MLAs in a state which has 403 MLAs. This was their worst ever performance, especially considering they had allied with Akhilesh Yadav’s SP. It was in power in UP at that time. They even hired Prashant Kishor, the strategist responsible for running Modi’s campaign in 2014. Even if you let 2014 go as an exception, what went wrong for INC in 2017 in UP? I was talking to Prashant Kishor last June, and he said to me what he had, time and gain said in media as well as to Rahul Gandhi back then that for INC to regain ground in UP, it must fight alone in order to revamp its cadre in the state. Because in a coalition, transfer of vote is not always cent percent. Plus, one must understand that INC’s vote is not considered to be transferable, which we have seen across many elections. This was the primary reason why INC was kept out of the SP-BSP alliance. So, the big question now is that will Priyanka Vadra and Jyotiraditya Scindia be able to revive INC’s fortunes in UP? Answer to this question has multiple facets. But first we need to understand what works in UP? I am not going to talk about development and then subtly talk about caste. People aware with UP know what the ground reality is. The most important factor in UP’s electoral politics is caste. If you can get your caste equations right, you are going to run away with the prize. The other factor is chemistry, between the voter and the party. So, what was the INC’s primary base before Bindeshwari Prasad Mandal’s report ruined it for them? There were majorly three main constituents of INC’s vote base. Brahmin, Dalits and Muslims. All of them combined constitute around 50% of state’s population. But since then they all have moved ahead with different political parties with Brahmins majorly moving towards BJP, Dalits towards BSP and Muslims towards SP. BJP in recent times has also been able to penetrate Non-Yadav OBCs and Non-Jatav Dalits, which has been the reason for their astounding success in the state. Now one charge which has been traditionally put on Congress is that it promotes nepotism and members of Gandhi family are above anyone and everyone. But there’s an upside to this as well. The degree of galvanisation that a Gandhi family member can do to its cadre, no one else can. Rahul Gandhi after being disappointed by SP-BSP combine has rather used that idea to his own advantage. This brings us to Priyanka’s impact in the current situation. The base of any leadership is a galvanised cadre, in addition to a leader. Cadre is what INC lacks in the current situation in UP. Mrs. Vadra’s intervention is likely to galvanise the cadre for a strong fight in the next polls. Make no mistake this is not going to make INC win some 40 seats in next polls, because as I said she will galvanise the cadre not the people. What this means is that INC’s worker has a new vigour to work for his/her leader in the state. Will it convert to seats? Most likely No. So, what will it do? To understand the details, we must look at vote shares of each major political party in the state. BJP has around 42% of vote share, SP 22%, BSP 20%, INC 7%. Now after the announcement made by INC, I have been trying to understand this more closely. I have, after detailed analysis come to this conclusion that INC under Priyanka will dent vote share of all major parties. I have already said that INC when fighting alone, even without Priyanka can clock a vote share of around 11%, on its own. Priyanka’s entry is likely to give INC a push of around 5-6 %, overall. That increase is likely to come from its traditional vote base of Brahmins, Muslims and Dalits. But as far as conversion of seats is concerned, it will have impact in pockets. The current situation suggests that it will impact SP-BSP more than BJP. It is because both Muslims and Dalits have traditionally voted for SP and BSP and this will lead to division of these votes. Brahmins have voted majorly for BJP in recent times, although it is also true that Brahmins have very rarely voted en masse, and mostly their vote gets divided between BJP and BSP. So, of the 5-6% increase, around 75-80% is likely to come from SP-BSP combine and the rest from BJP. INC would also be benefited from the fact that in general elections, National parties have slight edge over regional players.  

Political Party	Previous Vote-share	Expected Vote-share (2019)
BJP	42.5%	40%
SP+BSP	42%	32-35%
INC	7%	15-16%

Coming to the number of seats that it can convert in the upcoming general elections. In last elections, INC finished second on six seats including Ghaziabad, Kanpur, Lucknow. INC won 21 seats in 2009 which was really an exception considering the history of last 30 years. This time around, it has specifically decided to focus on around 30 seats when it can challenge the other two factions which include seats such as Kushinagar, Barabanki, Dhaurhara, Bareilly, Saharanpur, Sultanpur, Pratapgarh, Farrukhabad, Allahabad, Varanasi and a few others. On other 50 seats the grand old party is not even in the picture. Most of these seats are also targeted because of strong candidates in the fray which include quite a few former Union Ministers such as Jitin Prasada, RPN Singh and Salman Khurshid.  How many is it likely to win? It is most likely to win apart from its traditional Amethi and Raebareli, seats such as PL Punia’s Barabanki, RPN Singh’s Kushinagar, Imran Masood’s Saharanpur, Jitin Prasada’s Dhaurhara. At most, INC can win 6-8 seats in the next Lok Sabha elections from Uttar Pradesh. But the increase in vote share can, with further consolidation, help it do well in the next assembly elections. All in all, the answer to the question weather Priyanka Gandhi Vadra will impact UP is both YES and NO. 

One more news that has recently emerged is that after the announcement of two AICC general secretaries for UP, SP-BSP are reportedly ready to give a better deal to the Congress party. They were ready to offer INC not more than 8 seats, apart from Amethi and Raebareli, six more seats where it had come second in 2014. Congress party wanted at that time at least 15 seats to contest, which both were not ready to give. Now, after announcement by INC, the alliance is reportedly ready to give 15 seats to Congress party. But Congress party now wants SP,BSP,INC to contest 25 seats each, leaving 5 for other allies. It seems really difficult that the two regional satraps would agree to this understanding. It will be really interesting to see how this situation pans out, because there is nothing which is impossible in politics.