UP ELECTIONS: DECODING THE MYTH

Small is Big when it comes to electoral outcomes in Uttar Pradesh, where every vote counts in a highly-divided polity. UP is one of the most important states, when it comes to forming government at the centre. There is a famous saying in the political corridors, which aptly explains the situation- “Delhi ka rasta, UP se hoke jata hai”. Caste is the most important factor when it comes to Elections in UP. Let look at the players first- The Bhartiya Janata Party, a party which indisputably is the biggest political party of the country. It won the 2014 Lok Sabha polls quite comprehensively, getting 42.3% of votes, almost double of that of the SP (22.2%) and the BSP (20.3%). The Samajwadi Party, led by its vibrant young leader and the youngest CM in the whole of India, rides mainly on the OBC votes, Yadavs in particular. The Bahujan Samaj Party, which came in power on the back of the law and order problem. And then there is the Indian National Congress, the most successful political party in the history of India, which many claim, has lost its significance after the 2014 Lok Sabha Elections. Should the Elections be a triangular contest- which presumes that the Congress will not be a player of significance, the winning party will need about 32-35 % of votes, and it is here that the votes of numerically smaller communities come into play.

Broadly speaking, the political loyalties of the dominant and more populous caste groups are by and large fixed- which means the extremely backward castes (who are non-yadavs) and the Non-Jatav Dalits, often hold key to power. OBCs are roughly 44% of the UP Electorate, Dalits 21%, Muslims 19% and Upper Castes 16%. However, around 200, Non-Yadav communities make up more than double the Yadav population. Among the Dalits, Parsis and the Valmikis are the large Non Jatav Communities. Yadavs vote by and large for SP, and Jatavs for BSP. Muslims have been voting for the party that is by and large seen capable of defeating the BJP, thereby switching between the SP and BSP. Upper castes have traditionally backed BJP. These four social groups make up around 65% of the Electorate and therefore all eyes are on the remaining 35%- EBC and non-Jatav Dalits.

For BJP to win the elections, it needs to concentrate on the non-yadav OBCs, which it has been doing quite profoundly. Addition of Swami Prasad Maurya, to its ranks and making Keshav Prasad Maurya its State president goes a long way in doing just that. For SP to win the elections, it needs to reach out to the Non-Yadav OBCs. Addition of Beni Prasad Maurya, a friend turned foe and a prominent Kurmi leader, is a step in the right direction. For BSP to win the election, it needs to strengthen the lower caste groups which it has been losing, in recent times to the BJP. The law and order is again their agenda, which gives them place in the minds of the liberals.

To sum it up, Yadavs, Jatavs, upper castes have shown fairly stable political loyalties, and Muslims have largely gone with the party most likely to defeat the BJP. But one thing that I have learned from the book “Gathbandan ki Rajneeti”, written by one of India’s finest PMs Shri Atal Bihari Vajpayee is that the road to Lucknow passes through successful social Coalitions.