Bharat in the times of Corona

For those of you who would have read the Gabriel Marquez novel with rhyming title, I must assure you this is much bigger than the struggles of Florentino and Fermina. The Corona Virus (COVID-19) has been the biggest talk of the town in the first half of 2020 and by the looks of it, poses global threat to more than 200 countries combined, including India. This pandemic has shaken the foundations of the international order. It has already taken a toll in advanced countries known for their health care infrastructure and accessibility. Developing countries, struggling with inadequate State capacity, face the challenge of both dealing with the health catastrophe and its economic fallout. As of now when global deaths are pegged around 40k and confirmed cases around 800k. The situation is precarious in India, with its 1.3 billion people and a weak health care system. But what has been the refreshing change is the dynamism and how the government has reacted to this pandemic. While not much can be done to redress the structural inadequacies at such short notice, government has been moving fast to augment capacity like placing orders for 50k ventilators to nearly double their numbers. The mini migrant crisis of the laborers’ was a sign of some lack of co-ordination between centre and states/UTs. But the way it was handled by states such as UP, Telangana, Maharashtra and a couple of others was praiseworthy.

But this crisis has also validated several of the major policy decisions of the Narendra Modi government in the past six years. Major relief measures such as medical insurance to frontline health workers and income support to vulnerable groups using direct benefits transfer are testimony to formidable state capacity. Such measures would have been unthinkable a few years ago, but for the massive infrastructure built by implementing policies like Aadhaar, Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojna (PMJDY) and Digital India. Today India’s banked population is more than 80%, a sharp increase from around 50% in 2014. And the credit goes to the extraordinary push given by the PMJDY, which now boasts of 380 million bank accounts; 1.25 billion Aadhaar cards have been issued and the number of Smartphone users alone has crossed 500 million, with a total number of mobile phones at 1.21 billion. Now 690 million Indians subscribe to the Internet, with urban net penetration at 104%.

The push given to National Payments Corporation of India has boosted innovation and connectivity, thus revolutionizing banking and governance. There are more than 600 million RuPay cards, most associated with the PMJDY accounts and 1.2 billion transactions are being done over BHIM UPI alone which accounts only for the 5% market share in the bourgeoning UPI ecosystem. The “JAM trinity”, which transformed the social security paradigm, has become the preferred route to support people staring at an uncertain future due to the lockdown. It is to the credit of Modi that despite his earlier concerns, he quickly grasped the potential of these schemes and invested his political and administrative capital in achieving what UPA failed to attain. Because of this, India today is in a far better position to deal with the pandemic. Schemes such as Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana increasing gas cylinder coverage, Digilocker, BharatNet, integrating governance and social media, 100% electrification, construction of more than 2 crore houses under the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana, Ayushman Bharat and various pension schemes for the unorganized sector have made us better prepared to deal with the lockdown and economic distress. These schemes also generate a crucial database of the beneficiaries that is now being utilized by the government to ensure relief to the maximum number of people possible especially in the unorganized sector. The Swachh Bharat Abhiyan was mocked and dismissed as a gimmick, but sanitation has substantially improved. Better sanitation and hygiene has already been saving hundreds of thousands of lives, as per the estimates of the World Health Organization, and its importance during a pandemic cannot be emphasized enough.

Covid-19 also settles the debate on the National Population Register (NPR) and National Register of Citizens (NRC), by demonstrating the necessity for a complete and verifiable database of population and citizens as even now a large number of people are outside the ambit of relief measure due to the lack of such a database. Such a database and State-capacity of need-based surveillance, unshackled by strict privacy concerns, are central to the success of countries like South Korea, Taiwan and China and Singapore in containing the pandemic.

So what has been the combined impact of all these schemes and social distancing measures that have been taken by people themselves?

This study by fellows from ISI Delhi and Brookings India outlines the impact. These measures in combination have started to flatten out the curve that was skyrocketing till 10 days back. India has so far reported 41 deaths as of 31 March 31, 2020 but considering that total deaths in Italy has been closed 12k and 10k in Spain with total population of 60 million and 47 million respectively, it would be foolish to not take this in account. Moreover UP with population of close to 230 million people, which has been traditionally a BIMARU state, is amongst the best performing ones in dealing with the pandemic with no deaths and total cases close to 85. UP CM Maharaj Yogi Adityanath has stood out with his dynamic leadership and ability to take strict and inclusive measures. 

But, for now, it is the economic question that needs to be addressed next. A decade-long slowdown has already limited the capacity of the government to undertake relief measures. The economy was already in the midst of the restructuring due to disruptive policies implemented in the last few years. It is unclear if it can absorb another shock and yet emerge unscathed. We have no precedents to fall back upon. The nearest analogy might well be that of wartime reconstruction. But what we do have is a strong government at centre and a PM with an uncanny ability to do the impossible. So Bharat in the times of Corona is going to be a much more interesting and hopeful story than the rhyming literature from Mr. Marquez.

NOTE: Special Thanks to the following contributor. This has been written in consultation and contribution from Mr Abhinav Prakash, Asst Prof SRCC, University of Delhi