Coup de Grace for INC?

The grand old party on India, INC or simply Congress, is in the worst phase since more than a century, right? It can sink no more than this, right? While a common Indian or anyone closely looking might agree with those two statements, I ask you to kindly reconsider those two assumptions till the end of this article. So how did INC reach this stage? Let’s understand history in order to fizzle out the fog of future.

INC continuously held power from 1952 to 1977. Despite the great JP movement it lost power only for a couple of years only for Mrs. Gandhi, I mean the Indian one or rather Indian origin one, to come back with thumping majority. So in reality when did the decline started? While die heart Congressis would like to believe otherwise, it was the first accidental PM Rajiv Gandhi who squandered the biggest mandate of independent India. Essentially the first wave of decline started, with arrival of Mandal politics. What was the biggest sign of it? What is common between Mulayam Singh Yadav in UP, Mamata Bannerjee in West Bengal, Lalu Yadav in Bihar, Sharad Pawar in Maharashtra, Jagan Mohan Reddy in Andhra, and KCR in Telangana? All of them weaned away the primary, solid Muslim-vote bank of INC in different states.

Second wave of decline happened when Gandhi family lost its ability to win elections. Among other reasons, this helped PM Modi to rub the INC for first time in 2014 and subsequently in almost every election after that. Few state elections that it won were mostly due to regional satraps like Captain Amrinder Singh in Punjab, Gehlot-Pilot in Rajasthan, Bhupesh Baghel in Chhatisgarh. But in principle it is abundantly clear that Gandhi family lost its ability to bring votes as back as post 2009. But despite the losses and continued failure of Gandhi family and Teflon coated popularity of PM Modi, even as late as 2019, INC still commands a solid 20% vote share at national level. This is far ahead of any other party in India except BJP. This brings me to third/final blow or coup de grace for the INC.

While it has lost many elections most of 20% vote share at national level that INC receives comes from Minorities. But something has changed post 2019. It has started at small municipal level and gone onto parliament level. Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM is emerging at national level as the biggest competitor to INC’s vote bank. MIM or Majlis as it’s popularly called has been strategically targeting Muslim dominated areas across country and has been successful too. Even in 2019 General elections, it fought only 3 seats winning 2. But it got more than 3 lakh votes in Kishanganj. Come assembly elections it won 5 assembly seats in Bihar. It won Aurangabad Lok Sabha in 2019, while winning 2 seats in assembly later that year. Not to mention it has since 2019, won seats in local bodies in 8 states, including Gujarat. It is all set and raring to go in Bengal in upcoming polls. Political experts claim it will have some role in 60-90 assembly seats, especially in minority dominated and INC stronghold districts in Murshidabad- Malda-Dinajpur districts. In Assam AIUDF already has 2/14 Lok Sabha seats, not to mention IUML having 3 seats in Tamilnadu and Kerala. Asad Owaisi has claimed that these 2 parties are MIM’s supporting parties and a future alliance at national level of AIMIM-IUML-AIUDF can be discussed. Not to forget Furfura Sharif's Pirzada testing waters with Asad Owaisi too. While latter two, as of now are allying with INC, it’s only a matter of time before they ditch it due to its baggages. AIMIM has been the sub-plot of Indian political story in India in last 5 years after Modi’s BJP. Having talked to enough people from all these states, especially minorities, it is clear to me how Owaisi’s support in youth has increased many folds and established him as the biggest leader of Muslims pan India, weather in Parliament or on streets. With signs everywhere, if Gandhi family losses the support of Muslims at national level and its national vote share starts to decline below 20% along with ageing regional satraps in Amrinder Singh, Gehlot, Gulam nabi Azad, Hooda, it will be reduced to couple of states at most and winning elections at national level will be a forgotten dream and nothing more. It will be the coup de grace for INC if it cedes space to AIMIM. And with this speed don’t be surprised if Majlis has more than 10% national vote share by 2029 general election.