What really happened in UP?

 

What really happened in UP?

 

Uttar Pradesh assembly elections are not just any elections (which by the way are ever happening in India and hence I’m a total supporter of Simultaneous elections). UP is the nerve centre of Indian politics, which is aptly clear from the fact that 9 of the 14 people who’ve held the office of the Prime Minister of the country are either from UP or have been elected from the state when they held the office. Two of them were even former CMs of the state. The sheer magnanimity of the state and its complex electoral equations meant that no one had ever come back to power after completing 5 year term in history of the state. So what really happened this time? Of course by now you know that the all iconic Yogi Adityanath is back with a bang. But how did it happen? How did a highly caste driven state like UP bring back a CM, who’s own caste is less than 7% of the state? I am going to discuss all this in detail further ahead. I have myself travelled across the state, talked to various groups and hence this blog also includes some of my personal conversations I had with people on ground.

So the overview of result is that BJP with allies (Anupriya Patel’s Apna Dal-S and Sanjay Nishad’s Nishad Party) won 273 seats of the total 403. Samajwadi Party with allies (Chaudhary Jayant Singh’s RLD, OP Rajbhar’s SBSP, Krishna Patel’s Apna Dal-K, Keshav Dev Maurya’s Mahan Dal, and Sanjay Chauhan’s Janwadi Party) won 125 seats. BSP bagging just 1 seat, INC winning 2 seats and Raja Bhaiya’s JDL winning 2 seats.

Just as an insight, caste equation of the state is as follows.

Ø  Upper caste (Brahmins, Thakurs, Kayasths, and Bhumihars etc) is considered to be approx 20%. With Brahmins alone over 11%.

Ø  OBCs are approx 40% with Yadavs considered to be around 9% alone.\

Ø  Dalits are around 21% with Jatavs alone being 11%

Ø  Muslim population is 19%

 

Let’s get the facts straight first. This election was held in the backdrop of a year-long farm protests which made Mr. Modi pull back the concerned laws. A first of its kind event, in the Modi era. Then there was Covid-19. While government did what it could, no one was ready for the humongous disaster that happened which affected each and every life. Which lead to Loss of lives and livelihood, the migrant crisis. Not to forget the acute polarization in the CAA times, especially relevant in state having close to 4.5 crore Muslims (More than total population of many countries in world). Not to forget BJP had lost in Bengal in 2021, even though improved its performance considerably.  

In 2017 when BJP won a massive 325 seats with allies, it got almost 90% of Upper caste votes, majority of Non Yadav OBCs and Non Jatav Dalits. Its vote share with allies being 42%. In 2019, despite being historic SP-BSP coalition BJP got close to 50% vote. That jump in vote share was solely because of Narendra Modi being on ticket for the PM himself. But the big question for everyone was despite those challenges and some more, can Yogi Adityanath return? Because of-course apart from every above challenge, it had never been done before. Let’s start with how things were 1 year before elections. The story was entirely different. In 4 years as citizen of UP, I had personally witnessed the sheer scale of work being done by UP govt. From roads to expressways to villages getting electricity 20hrs a day and add to it the spiritual fervor of Yogi Adityanath government with splendid work being done in Ayodhya and Kashi to Mathura to Kumbh in Prayagraj. PM Modi’s social security schemes were vehemently popular on ground. Against BJP was SP, primarily banking on it M-Y (Muslim-Yadav) vote bank. Then in matter of months came 3 different setbacks for government’s chances. Covid, especially the second wave. CAA protests across the state. 3 Farm laws, which angered the farmers especially in the Jat belt of West UP.

By October, Akhilesh was seen to be challenging the Yogi government with some even giving him the lead. After-all he had brought Chaudhary Jayant’s RLD with him. Farm laws movement had benefitted RLD the most since it’s primarily a Jat based party. He even allied with small Non-Yadav OBC parties of central and east UP, which were supposed to make dent in BJP’s vote share apart from seen to be consolidating the basic 30% vote share of SP. One big change was also that BSP which 10 years back was ruling UP was not a force to reckon with. Its 22% vote share was going down and no one knew how low it’ll end up. Suddenly Akhilesh was also saying that Lohiyawadiyon aur Ambedkarwadiyon ko saath laake BJP ko harayenge, roughly translating to SP and BSP’s waning dalits will back him to defeat BJP.

So what went wrong? Most of it was happening in media. And a very different wave was visible on ground. Issues on which people eventually voted were different.              

 

It was early January of this year. I had gone to a friend’s place in Koil assembly segment in Aligarh District, 2 hr drive outside Delhi. When I roamed around the place I met Pragya Parashar, a 26yr old girl who used to work in some IT company in Noida. I asked her, what is the biggest issue you’d vote on? She said, Law and Order in the state. I asked her what differences have you felt in 5years. She was telling me how as late as 2015 when she used to study in college, her parents would strictly not allow and even she herself felt threatened to come from Noida to her home after 6 pm. And the day this conversation happened she had just arrived in Koil at 10:30 in Night alone from Noida. She said to me that Baba ka bulldozer jab tak chalta rahega, ham log bahut safe feel karte hai. Yogi Adityanath’s Bulldozer on ground in last 5 years has become synonym with firm grip and harsh action against mafia in the state. She and millions of girls and women across the state like her felt that Samajwadi party’s rule had given in to mafia raj in UP. The primary culprits were the cadres of SP especially Yadavs who have become synonym with gunda raj all across the state.

Around 150 km away from Varanasi in east UP is Mirzapur. A district which is known for carpets and Vindhyachal Temple. In Mirzapur there is an assembly segment, Majhwaan. I met Bholanath Sonkar there. He lived in a village Ramarai which was dominated by SC population. I asked Bholanath, what are your issues in this election? He told me he used to work in Surat but during migrant crisis he had returned to his village. He told me Modiji ne Train se hame Benaras bhejwaya, waha se ham log Yogiji ki bus me baith ke gaon pahuche. I asked him about his job. He said Naukri to nahi hai lekin ab corona se sab thik ho raha hai aur nayi road ban rahi hai hamare zile me to pradhan ji bole hai agle mahine se naukri mil jayegi. His wife however was very excited. She told me Pure corona hame Modi ka rashan mila hai. Namak khaya hai hamne modi ka, karz to utarenge hi. Almost 15cr people across UP have been receiving 5kg grains per month from centre and 5 kg from state, per person. Add to it, they’ve been getting Salt, Sugar, Pulse, Cooking oil. Everything that a common man needs to survive.

Around 50km outside of Ayodhya in the adjoining district of Basti is Harraiya assembly segment. I was walking through the lanes of a EWS colony, which was dominated by Muslims. While I was walking a man fell from his two wheeler while he was parking it. I helped him and he invited me to his home nearby. His name was Shamim Ahmed. When I was sitting inside, I asked his begum is there some medical problem with him? She told me, Dil ka operation hua hai inka abhi Lucknow me. Curious, I asked her kitna kharcha laga tha? Especially since in covid times, health is always a big question. She said Karad(Card) bana hai na Modiji wala. Referring to the Ayushmaan Bharat card. I asked Modiji ki bheji hui suvidhaye milti hai? She said 2 Hazzar rupaya aata hai khate me, Pehli baar cylinder mila tha 3 saal pehle, Pure Corona Ration mila hai. So I asked kisko vote diya tha iss baar? She said koi puchta hai to ham log batate hai ki cycle ko diye the lekin ham log chup chaap 11 logo ka parivaar phoolwe pe deke aaye hai. Bataiyega nahi bhaiya kisi ko. She also said, Vidhayakji ne hamare ghar ke peeche wale gunde ko jail me dalwa diya, jabki wo bhi Vidhayak ji ki jaati ka Thakur hai. Hamko aur kya chahiye?

  

Among many conversations I had, these 3 were very specific and anecdotal in finding the nerve of the people of UP in this election. Now to the most important issue. While discussions went on in media, BJP though Modi-Yogi brand in UP won the narrative battle by the biggest of margins. Akhilesh was seen to be weak on issues relating to common man. He was seen as sitting at home for 4.5 years while Modi and Yogi worked tirelessly for people. It was here that he lost the election. Then he lost due to his cadre itself too. 2 months before election Yadavs were seen as coming out of their holes and trying to establish their dominance, which in turn led to counter polarization in the silent non-Yadav OBC and Dalit voters. Even those who could have voted for SP didn’t eventually due to the cadre of party itself. It is something Akhilesh needs to ponder for the future.   

Let’s discuss regions and voter specific issues. West UP was in news all across the 2021 due to farm protests and obvious shift of dominant Jat community to RLD. Remember Jats had voted overwhelmingly in 2014, 2017 even 2019. Ground reports as well as results too indicate that there was split in Jat votes in the region of Muzzafarnagar-Baghpat. But what helped BJP minimize its losses was consolidation on non-dominant small OBCs and small castes even in these areas. Plus Dalits in these areas have voted for BJP on seats where BSP was not in contest. BJP has managed to get more than 50% of Non-Jatav Dalits and close to 30% Jatavs. Meanwhile outside the stronghold of RLD, BJP has managed to hold onto its Jat vote too such as in areas of Mathura, Hathras, Aligarh etc. In central UP and Bundelkhand, results are more or less similar to last time. SP+ was a good 10% behind BJP+ in these areas. The much talked about district of Lakhimpur too was a clean sweep for BJP. The Purvanchal is a curious case for everyone. This was considered an absolute stronghold of BJP. It consists of districts such as Gorakhpur, Varanasi and Prayagraj. We must look at it in two different categories. Northen Purvanchal consisting of Districts such as Gorakhpur, Basti, Deoria, Kushinagar e.tc and Southern Purvanchal consisting of districts such as Varanasi, Prayagraj, Bhadohi, Mirzapur, Sonbhadra e.tc potray a similar story of BJP+ winning majority of seats. But when you look at central Purvanchal, districts such as Ballia, Mau, Ghazipur, Ambedkarnagar, Azamgarh e.tc there was a clean sweep of SP+. The credit for it must go to its alliance partner OP Rajbhar’s SBSP. He won 6 seats but it is estimated that he helped SP win 30-35 extra seats of so in the region. He was the only alliance partner who’s really managed to benefit the alliance the most. All in BJP+ increased its vote share from last time from 42 to 44%. SP+ too managed to increase its vote share from around 30 to 36%, its best ever performance. But what we witnessed for the first time in UP is a sign of bipolar contest. So, SP benefitted a lot from coagulation of anti-BJP votes with it, draining INC from 7 to 2.5% and BSP from 22 to 13%. But as we see in all bipolar states that even a 1-2% difference is enough to pull the party through. Here the 8% difference was in the end too much to fill for Akhilesh Yadav. Majority of that 8% is the women who’ve voted in extraordinary numbers for BJP. A lot of Modi and Yogi wins’ credit goes to women and women alone.

In the end as I said earlier, yes there was talk of jobs, and anger against government in some form or the other. But media overplayed that anger. As an old man from Deoria district said to me, Ration gaon me aur Sashan shehar me pulled BJP vehemently ahead of others and helped Yogi Adityanath create history.