What really happened in UP?

 

What really happened in UP?

 

Uttar Pradesh assembly elections are not just any elections (which by the way are ever happening in India and hence I’m a total supporter of Simultaneous elections). UP is the nerve centre of Indian politics, which is aptly clear from the fact that 9 of the 14 people who’ve held the office of the Prime Minister of the country are either from UP or have been elected from the state when they held the office. Two of them were even former CMs of the state. The sheer magnanimity of the state and its complex electoral equations meant that no one had ever come back to power after completing 5 year term in history of the state. So what really happened this time? Of course by now you know that the all iconic Yogi Adityanath is back with a bang. But how did it happen? How did a highly caste driven state like UP bring back a CM, who’s own caste is less than 7% of the state? I am going to discuss all this in detail further ahead. I have myself travelled across the state, talked to various groups and hence this blog also includes some of my personal conversations I had with people on ground.

So the overview of result is that BJP with allies (Anupriya Patel’s Apna Dal-S and Sanjay Nishad’s Nishad Party) won 273 seats of the total 403. Samajwadi Party with allies (Chaudhary Jayant Singh’s RLD, OP Rajbhar’s SBSP, Krishna Patel’s Apna Dal-K, Keshav Dev Maurya’s Mahan Dal, and Sanjay Chauhan’s Janwadi Party) won 125 seats. BSP bagging just 1 seat, INC winning 2 seats and Raja Bhaiya’s JDL winning 2 seats.

Just as an insight, caste equation of the state is as follows.

Ø  Upper caste (Brahmins, Thakurs, Kayasths, and Bhumihars etc) is considered to be approx 20%. With Brahmins alone over 11%.

Ø  OBCs are approx 40% with Yadavs considered to be around 9% alone.\

Ø  Dalits are around 21% with Jatavs alone being 11%

Ø  Muslim population is 19%

 

Let’s get the facts straight first. This election was held in the backdrop of a year-long farm protests which made Mr. Modi pull back the concerned laws. A first of its kind event, in the Modi era. Then there was Covid-19. While government did what it could, no one was ready for the humongous disaster that happened which affected each and every life. Which lead to Loss of lives and livelihood, the migrant crisis. Not to forget the acute polarization in the CAA times, especially relevant in state having close to 4.5 crore Muslims (More than total population of many countries in world). Not to forget BJP had lost in Bengal in 2021, even though improved its performance considerably.  

In 2017 when BJP won a massive 325 seats with allies, it got almost 90% of Upper caste votes, majority of Non Yadav OBCs and Non Jatav Dalits. Its vote share with allies being 42%. In 2019, despite being historic SP-BSP coalition BJP got close to 50% vote. That jump in vote share was solely because of Narendra Modi being on ticket for the PM himself. But the big question for everyone was despite those challenges and some more, can Yogi Adityanath return? Because of-course apart from every above challenge, it had never been done before. Let’s start with how things were 1 year before elections. The story was entirely different. In 4 years as citizen of UP, I had personally witnessed the sheer scale of work being done by UP govt. From roads to expressways to villages getting electricity 20hrs a day and add to it the spiritual fervor of Yogi Adityanath government with splendid work being done in Ayodhya and Kashi to Mathura to Kumbh in Prayagraj. PM Modi’s social security schemes were vehemently popular on ground. Against BJP was SP, primarily banking on it M-Y (Muslim-Yadav) vote bank. Then in matter of months came 3 different setbacks for government’s chances. Covid, especially the second wave. CAA protests across the state. 3 Farm laws, which angered the farmers especially in the Jat belt of West UP.

By October, Akhilesh was seen to be challenging the Yogi government with some even giving him the lead. After-all he had brought Chaudhary Jayant’s RLD with him. Farm laws movement had benefitted RLD the most since it’s primarily a Jat based party. He even allied with small Non-Yadav OBC parties of central and east UP, which were supposed to make dent in BJP’s vote share apart from seen to be consolidating the basic 30% vote share of SP. One big change was also that BSP which 10 years back was ruling UP was not a force to reckon with. Its 22% vote share was going down and no one knew how low it’ll end up. Suddenly Akhilesh was also saying that Lohiyawadiyon aur Ambedkarwadiyon ko saath laake BJP ko harayenge, roughly translating to SP and BSP’s waning dalits will back him to defeat BJP.

So what went wrong? Most of it was happening in media. And a very different wave was visible on ground. Issues on which people eventually voted were different.              

 

It was early January of this year. I had gone to a friend’s place in Koil assembly segment in Aligarh District, 2 hr drive outside Delhi. When I roamed around the place I met Pragya Parashar, a 26yr old girl who used to work in some IT company in Noida. I asked her, what is the biggest issue you’d vote on? She said, Law and Order in the state. I asked her what differences have you felt in 5years. She was telling me how as late as 2015 when she used to study in college, her parents would strictly not allow and even she herself felt threatened to come from Noida to her home after 6 pm. And the day this conversation happened she had just arrived in Koil at 10:30 in Night alone from Noida. She said to me that Baba ka bulldozer jab tak chalta rahega, ham log bahut safe feel karte hai. Yogi Adityanath’s Bulldozer on ground in last 5 years has become synonym with firm grip and harsh action against mafia in the state. She and millions of girls and women across the state like her felt that Samajwadi party’s rule had given in to mafia raj in UP. The primary culprits were the cadres of SP especially Yadavs who have become synonym with gunda raj all across the state.

Around 150 km away from Varanasi in east UP is Mirzapur. A district which is known for carpets and Vindhyachal Temple. In Mirzapur there is an assembly segment, Majhwaan. I met Bholanath Sonkar there. He lived in a village Ramarai which was dominated by SC population. I asked Bholanath, what are your issues in this election? He told me he used to work in Surat but during migrant crisis he had returned to his village. He told me Modiji ne Train se hame Benaras bhejwaya, waha se ham log Yogiji ki bus me baith ke gaon pahuche. I asked him about his job. He said Naukri to nahi hai lekin ab corona se sab thik ho raha hai aur nayi road ban rahi hai hamare zile me to pradhan ji bole hai agle mahine se naukri mil jayegi. His wife however was very excited. She told me Pure corona hame Modi ka rashan mila hai. Namak khaya hai hamne modi ka, karz to utarenge hi. Almost 15cr people across UP have been receiving 5kg grains per month from centre and 5 kg from state, per person. Add to it, they’ve been getting Salt, Sugar, Pulse, Cooking oil. Everything that a common man needs to survive.

Around 50km outside of Ayodhya in the adjoining district of Basti is Harraiya assembly segment. I was walking through the lanes of a EWS colony, which was dominated by Muslims. While I was walking a man fell from his two wheeler while he was parking it. I helped him and he invited me to his home nearby. His name was Shamim Ahmed. When I was sitting inside, I asked his begum is there some medical problem with him? She told me, Dil ka operation hua hai inka abhi Lucknow me. Curious, I asked her kitna kharcha laga tha? Especially since in covid times, health is always a big question. She said Karad(Card) bana hai na Modiji wala. Referring to the Ayushmaan Bharat card. I asked Modiji ki bheji hui suvidhaye milti hai? She said 2 Hazzar rupaya aata hai khate me, Pehli baar cylinder mila tha 3 saal pehle, Pure Corona Ration mila hai. So I asked kisko vote diya tha iss baar? She said koi puchta hai to ham log batate hai ki cycle ko diye the lekin ham log chup chaap 11 logo ka parivaar phoolwe pe deke aaye hai. Bataiyega nahi bhaiya kisi ko. She also said, Vidhayakji ne hamare ghar ke peeche wale gunde ko jail me dalwa diya, jabki wo bhi Vidhayak ji ki jaati ka Thakur hai. Hamko aur kya chahiye?

  

Among many conversations I had, these 3 were very specific and anecdotal in finding the nerve of the people of UP in this election. Now to the most important issue. While discussions went on in media, BJP though Modi-Yogi brand in UP won the narrative battle by the biggest of margins. Akhilesh was seen to be weak on issues relating to common man. He was seen as sitting at home for 4.5 years while Modi and Yogi worked tirelessly for people. It was here that he lost the election. Then he lost due to his cadre itself too. 2 months before election Yadavs were seen as coming out of their holes and trying to establish their dominance, which in turn led to counter polarization in the silent non-Yadav OBC and Dalit voters. Even those who could have voted for SP didn’t eventually due to the cadre of party itself. It is something Akhilesh needs to ponder for the future.   

Let’s discuss regions and voter specific issues. West UP was in news all across the 2021 due to farm protests and obvious shift of dominant Jat community to RLD. Remember Jats had voted overwhelmingly in 2014, 2017 even 2019. Ground reports as well as results too indicate that there was split in Jat votes in the region of Muzzafarnagar-Baghpat. But what helped BJP minimize its losses was consolidation on non-dominant small OBCs and small castes even in these areas. Plus Dalits in these areas have voted for BJP on seats where BSP was not in contest. BJP has managed to get more than 50% of Non-Jatav Dalits and close to 30% Jatavs. Meanwhile outside the stronghold of RLD, BJP has managed to hold onto its Jat vote too such as in areas of Mathura, Hathras, Aligarh etc. In central UP and Bundelkhand, results are more or less similar to last time. SP+ was a good 10% behind BJP+ in these areas. The much talked about district of Lakhimpur too was a clean sweep for BJP. The Purvanchal is a curious case for everyone. This was considered an absolute stronghold of BJP. It consists of districts such as Gorakhpur, Varanasi and Prayagraj. We must look at it in two different categories. Northen Purvanchal consisting of Districts such as Gorakhpur, Basti, Deoria, Kushinagar e.tc and Southern Purvanchal consisting of districts such as Varanasi, Prayagraj, Bhadohi, Mirzapur, Sonbhadra e.tc potray a similar story of BJP+ winning majority of seats. But when you look at central Purvanchal, districts such as Ballia, Mau, Ghazipur, Ambedkarnagar, Azamgarh e.tc there was a clean sweep of SP+. The credit for it must go to its alliance partner OP Rajbhar’s SBSP. He won 6 seats but it is estimated that he helped SP win 30-35 extra seats of so in the region. He was the only alliance partner who’s really managed to benefit the alliance the most. All in BJP+ increased its vote share from last time from 42 to 44%. SP+ too managed to increase its vote share from around 30 to 36%, its best ever performance. But what we witnessed for the first time in UP is a sign of bipolar contest. So, SP benefitted a lot from coagulation of anti-BJP votes with it, draining INC from 7 to 2.5% and BSP from 22 to 13%. But as we see in all bipolar states that even a 1-2% difference is enough to pull the party through. Here the 8% difference was in the end too much to fill for Akhilesh Yadav. Majority of that 8% is the women who’ve voted in extraordinary numbers for BJP. A lot of Modi and Yogi wins’ credit goes to women and women alone.

In the end as I said earlier, yes there was talk of jobs, and anger against government in some form or the other. But media overplayed that anger. As an old man from Deoria district said to me, Ration gaon me aur Sashan shehar me pulled BJP vehemently ahead of others and helped Yogi Adityanath create history.      

Coup de Grace for INC?

The grand old party on India, INC or simply Congress, is in the worst phase since more than a century, right? It can sink no more than this, right? While a common Indian or anyone closely looking might agree with those two statements, I ask you to kindly reconsider those two assumptions till the end of this article. So how did INC reach this stage? Let’s understand history in order to fizzle out the fog of future.

INC continuously held power from 1952 to 1977. Despite the great JP movement it lost power only for a couple of years only for Mrs. Gandhi, I mean the Indian one or rather Indian origin one, to come back with thumping majority. So in reality when did the decline started? While die heart Congressis would like to believe otherwise, it was the first accidental PM Rajiv Gandhi who squandered the biggest mandate of independent India. Essentially the first wave of decline started, with arrival of Mandal politics. What was the biggest sign of it? What is common between Mulayam Singh Yadav in UP, Mamata Bannerjee in West Bengal, Lalu Yadav in Bihar, Sharad Pawar in Maharashtra, Jagan Mohan Reddy in Andhra, and KCR in Telangana? All of them weaned away the primary, solid Muslim-vote bank of INC in different states.

Second wave of decline happened when Gandhi family lost its ability to win elections. Among other reasons, this helped PM Modi to rub the INC for first time in 2014 and subsequently in almost every election after that. Few state elections that it won were mostly due to regional satraps like Captain Amrinder Singh in Punjab, Gehlot-Pilot in Rajasthan, Bhupesh Baghel in Chhatisgarh. But in principle it is abundantly clear that Gandhi family lost its ability to bring votes as back as post 2009. But despite the losses and continued failure of Gandhi family and Teflon coated popularity of PM Modi, even as late as 2019, INC still commands a solid 20% vote share at national level. This is far ahead of any other party in India except BJP. This brings me to third/final blow or coup de grace for the INC.

While it has lost many elections most of 20% vote share at national level that INC receives comes from Minorities. But something has changed post 2019. It has started at small municipal level and gone onto parliament level. Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM is emerging at national level as the biggest competitor to INC’s vote bank. MIM or Majlis as it’s popularly called has been strategically targeting Muslim dominated areas across country and has been successful too. Even in 2019 General elections, it fought only 3 seats winning 2. But it got more than 3 lakh votes in Kishanganj. Come assembly elections it won 5 assembly seats in Bihar. It won Aurangabad Lok Sabha in 2019, while winning 2 seats in assembly later that year. Not to mention it has since 2019, won seats in local bodies in 8 states, including Gujarat. It is all set and raring to go in Bengal in upcoming polls. Political experts claim it will have some role in 60-90 assembly seats, especially in minority dominated and INC stronghold districts in Murshidabad- Malda-Dinajpur districts. In Assam AIUDF already has 2/14 Lok Sabha seats, not to mention IUML having 3 seats in Tamilnadu and Kerala. Asad Owaisi has claimed that these 2 parties are MIM’s supporting parties and a future alliance at national level of AIMIM-IUML-AIUDF can be discussed. Not to forget Furfura Sharif's Pirzada testing waters with Asad Owaisi too. While latter two, as of now are allying with INC, it’s only a matter of time before they ditch it due to its baggages. AIMIM has been the sub-plot of Indian political story in India in last 5 years after Modi’s BJP. Having talked to enough people from all these states, especially minorities, it is clear to me how Owaisi’s support in youth has increased many folds and established him as the biggest leader of Muslims pan India, weather in Parliament or on streets. With signs everywhere, if Gandhi family losses the support of Muslims at national level and its national vote share starts to decline below 20% along with ageing regional satraps in Amrinder Singh, Gehlot, Gulam nabi Azad, Hooda, it will be reduced to couple of states at most and winning elections at national level will be a forgotten dream and nothing more. It will be the coup de grace for INC if it cedes space to AIMIM. And with this speed don’t be surprised if Majlis has more than 10% national vote share by 2029 general election.

Bharat in the times of Corona

For those of you who would have read the Gabriel Marquez novel with rhyming title, I must assure you this is much bigger than the struggles of Florentino and Fermina. The Corona Virus (COVID-19) has been the biggest talk of the town in the first half of 2020 and by the looks of it, poses global threat to more than 200 countries combined, including India. This pandemic has shaken the foundations of the international order. It has already taken a toll in advanced countries known for their health care infrastructure and accessibility. Developing countries, struggling with inadequate State capacity, face the challenge of both dealing with the health catastrophe and its economic fallout. As of now when global deaths are pegged around 40k and confirmed cases around 800k. The situation is precarious in India, with its 1.3 billion people and a weak health care system. But what has been the refreshing change is the dynamism and how the government has reacted to this pandemic. While not much can be done to redress the structural inadequacies at such short notice, government has been moving fast to augment capacity like placing orders for 50k ventilators to nearly double their numbers. The mini migrant crisis of the laborers’ was a sign of some lack of co-ordination between centre and states/UTs. But the way it was handled by states such as UP, Telangana, Maharashtra and a couple of others was praiseworthy.

But this crisis has also validated several of the major policy decisions of the Narendra Modi government in the past six years. Major relief measures such as medical insurance to frontline health workers and income support to vulnerable groups using direct benefits transfer are testimony to formidable state capacity. Such measures would have been unthinkable a few years ago, but for the massive infrastructure built by implementing policies like Aadhaar, Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojna (PMJDY) and Digital India. Today India’s banked population is more than 80%, a sharp increase from around 50% in 2014. And the credit goes to the extraordinary push given by the PMJDY, which now boasts of 380 million bank accounts; 1.25 billion Aadhaar cards have been issued and the number of Smartphone users alone has crossed 500 million, with a total number of mobile phones at 1.21 billion. Now 690 million Indians subscribe to the Internet, with urban net penetration at 104%.

The push given to National Payments Corporation of India has boosted innovation and connectivity, thus revolutionizing banking and governance. There are more than 600 million RuPay cards, most associated with the PMJDY accounts and 1.2 billion transactions are being done over BHIM UPI alone which accounts only for the 5% market share in the bourgeoning UPI ecosystem. The “JAM trinity”, which transformed the social security paradigm, has become the preferred route to support people staring at an uncertain future due to the lockdown. It is to the credit of Modi that despite his earlier concerns, he quickly grasped the potential of these schemes and invested his political and administrative capital in achieving what UPA failed to attain. Because of this, India today is in a far better position to deal with the pandemic. Schemes such as Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana increasing gas cylinder coverage, Digilocker, BharatNet, integrating governance and social media, 100% electrification, construction of more than 2 crore houses under the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana, Ayushman Bharat and various pension schemes for the unorganized sector have made us better prepared to deal with the lockdown and economic distress. These schemes also generate a crucial database of the beneficiaries that is now being utilized by the government to ensure relief to the maximum number of people possible especially in the unorganized sector. The Swachh Bharat Abhiyan was mocked and dismissed as a gimmick, but sanitation has substantially improved. Better sanitation and hygiene has already been saving hundreds of thousands of lives, as per the estimates of the World Health Organization, and its importance during a pandemic cannot be emphasized enough.

Covid-19 also settles the debate on the National Population Register (NPR) and National Register of Citizens (NRC), by demonstrating the necessity for a complete and verifiable database of population and citizens as even now a large number of people are outside the ambit of relief measure due to the lack of such a database. Such a database and State-capacity of need-based surveillance, unshackled by strict privacy concerns, are central to the success of countries like South Korea, Taiwan and China and Singapore in containing the pandemic.

So what has been the combined impact of all these schemes and social distancing measures that have been taken by people themselves?

This study by fellows from ISI Delhi and Brookings India outlines the impact. These measures in combination have started to flatten out the curve that was skyrocketing till 10 days back. India has so far reported 41 deaths as of 31 March 31, 2020 but considering that total deaths in Italy has been closed 12k and 10k in Spain with total population of 60 million and 47 million respectively, it would be foolish to not take this in account. Moreover UP with population of close to 230 million people, which has been traditionally a BIMARU state, is amongst the best performing ones in dealing with the pandemic with no deaths and total cases close to 85. UP CM Maharaj Yogi Adityanath has stood out with his dynamic leadership and ability to take strict and inclusive measures. 

But, for now, it is the economic question that needs to be addressed next. A decade-long slowdown has already limited the capacity of the government to undertake relief measures. The economy was already in the midst of the restructuring due to disruptive policies implemented in the last few years. It is unclear if it can absorb another shock and yet emerge unscathed. We have no precedents to fall back upon. The nearest analogy might well be that of wartime reconstruction. But what we do have is a strong government at centre and a PM with an uncanny ability to do the impossible. So Bharat in the times of Corona is going to be a much more interesting and hopeful story than the rhyming literature from Mr. Marquez.

NOTE: Special Thanks to the following contributor. This has been written in consultation and contribution from Mr Abhinav Prakash, Asst Prof SRCC, University of Delhi

The Faulty Trendsetters

In recent couple of weeks amongst a lot of hue and cry, something has come up again. A trend. A trend that has been visible for some time now. Trend of a corrosive strain of American Left-wing identity (CAL) politics has taken root among the progressive sections of the young, urban elite in India. This politics is defined by purity, where no more than minor differences of ideology are tolerated. Anything more instantly makes you an enemy, fit to be despised or, in the vocabulary of the modern woke Left, ‘cancelled’. The only way out for Indian progressives would require a concentrated effort of engaging with ordinary people holding so called ‘problematic’ views, listening to them and trying to convince them of your own viewpoints, rather than dismissing them as “waste-of-time bigots”. RSS Karyakartas have spent many decades on the ground, working selflessly in small towns and villages, gradually convincing people of their ideology and the potent of commitment. The ideological hegemony that the RSS enjoys today is built on their sweat and blood. Meanwhile, many on the progressive side display little patience to even engage with their family and friends with opposing viewpoints. This by no means suggests that these viewpoints don't have credibility or vigour to take on the majority view, but only that they fail to achieve their objective because the process fails to counter the narrative of the majority view.

If you look on the other side, the cohesive acceptance can be gauged from the fact that RSS invited Dr. Pranab Mukherjee, a lifelong congressman, to the annual conference at Nagpur as a guest of honour to respect opinions of dissent. For the progressives’ following this CAL style, the very reason why they have miserably failed at being an opposition is because of their lack of groundwork and accepting behaviour. The Vice-President very beautifully says, “let the government propose and opposition oppose”. Even Dr. Shashi Tharoor pointed out that “you need to appreciate the government where necessary, the opposition just cannot feed on the mistakes of the government.” When emergency was declared it was these “waste-of-time bigots” who provided Jay Prakash Narayan with the organisational strength and took a backseat in favour of the Loknayak being the face of movement. The reason BJP and RSS continue to strengthen themselves despite all the dissent and protests is because they've actually gone to the people and heard them over the years. Even at the peak of their power they are seen during the Patna floods with more than 11k volunteers, they are seen working with tribals through their Vanvasi Kalyan Ashram and they are seen organising protests in form of Sabrimala agitation. This groundwork, however, has lacked in all other social and political organisations challenging them. Our country before being a nation state is a civilisational state. No one has understood this concept better than the RSS. Culture and emotions are two things that humans have fed on and are the binding factors. The CAL stylers’ are happy fighting their battles on Social media and fulfilling their appetites for being activists, and in process just being the pseudo ones. Ever imagined why despite the economic issues, some farmer distress here and there, even with the so-called communal tag they carry, they've been successful and continue to strengthen themselves? The reason is simple, despite all their failures they're the ones who have actually gone to the people and assured them that the problems will be resolved soon and thus become the healing hands. When they win an election, the first priority is to strengthen organisationally. On the other hand, when the current opposition wins, here and there, they sit back in their AC rooms and go back to being Social Media Warriors. When the BJP loses election, the first thing that they do is something like a membership drive. One other major difference is type of cadre that they can build. Normally any cadre of any organisation, especially political ones, require the so-called dosage of power. When in government they want their ways and that special treatment as a sense of entitlement. It would be foolish to think that RSS/BJP cadre doesn’t but it’s their commitment towards fighting that ideological battle that drives them more. And importantly this drive starts from places like Nabrangpur in Odisha or Ballia in UP or Khunti in Jharkhand or Forbesganj in Bihar or Shikaripura in Karnataka or Nemom in Kerala instead of Akbar Road and Jantar Mantar in Lutyens’ Delhi. Good section of them would not have heard of all these places. Indeed, in woke speak, ‘engaging’ is often considered as ‘indulging’, and is thus deemed as a moral failing. And that my friends, has made all the difference!

NOTE: Mainly written as a part of discussion with shreyamanb@gmail.com

Let’s lacerate the Fear Mongering: The Citizenship Amendment Bill

The Citizenship Amendment Bill which was recently passed by the Parliament has become a casualty to fear mongering by a lot of sections of people in the country. A lot of erroneous allegations are doing rounds to create confusion and instigate the crowds. While most of these have inherent biases against almost everything that the government proposes, there are few who’re genuinely concerned about the state of our country. I hope to logically get through to them. So, let’s lacerate this haze about this latest legislation that has been adopted. This legislation aims to provide that the Hindus, Sikhs, Buddhists, Jains, Parsis and Christians from Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Pakistan, who entered India on or before December 31, 2014, will not be treated as illegal migrants. In order to get this benefit, they must have also been exempted from the Foreigners Act, 1946 and the Passport (Entry into India) Act, 1920 by the central government.  The 1920 Act mandates foreigners to carry passport, while the1946 Act regulates the entry and departure of foreigners in India. The basic aim of this legislation is absolutely unrelated to what propaganda that has been peddled the Lutyens’ Khan Market Gang. The aim of this legislation is to correct the historical injustice which has been done to all these communities. In a broader perspective, Partition caused about one crore people to cross over the boundaries and take refuge as paupers. The people who chose to live in then Pakistan found themselves in an Islamic nation governed by religious laws. A pact between Republic of India represented by then PM Pandit Nehru and Islamic Republic of Pakistan represented by then PM Liaqat Ali Khan was signed to ensure safety of minorities in both the newly formed nations, which came to be known as Nehru-Liaqat Pact. However, let’s look at the situation of minorities in both these nations. In India Muslims formed 9 percent of total population in 1947 while Hindus were 85 percent. In 2011 census, Hindus were pegged at 79.8 percent while Muslims are placed at around 15 percent of total population. The amount of persecution in other nations can be gauged from some of the further mentioned situation. Farahnaz Ispahani in her article Cleansing Pakistan of its Minorites claims that “at the time of partition in 1947, almost 23 percent of Pakistan’s population was comprised of non-Muslim citizens. Today, the proportion of non-Muslims has declined to approximately 3 percent.” In a speech, Bangladeshi researcher Abdul Barakat claimed that “on an average 632 Hindus left the country each day and 230,612 annually. He says there will be no Hindus left within Bangladesh within next 30 years.” This is in addition to the frequent news of Hindu girls being abducted and forcibly converted in Pakistan becomes a frequent headline. It’s not that we became aware of this today. Back in 1950s, Bengali Dalit leader Jogendranath Mandal, who was a minister in East Pakistan, had to flee to India on account of persecution of Hindus. It was expected that India and the newly formed nations would protect their minorities. While India stands by its minorities, others have miserably failed to do the same. Henceforth it is only natural that India should fulfil its role as a protector and truly implement the Nehru-Liaqat Pact.

Now let’s look at the outlook of this law and bust some myths. First let’s look at legality of this legislation. Article 11 of the Constitution says “Parliament to regulate the right of citizenship by law. Nothing in the foregoing provisions of this Part shall derogate from the power of Parliament to make any provision with respect to the acquisition and termination of citizenship and all other matters relating to citizenship”, So the parliament has sole right to regulate matters regarding the citizenship. Some CMs have made tall claims regarding not allowing the implementation in their states’. They shouldn’t get their hopes up. There have been claims made by some sections that this law is violative of Fundamental Rights, granted to us by the Constitution. First, among these rights, only Article 14 and 21 are automatically extended to non-citizens. Others are reserved only for all current citizens of the republic. It is true that Article 14 establishes the concept of Equality Before Law and Equal Protection of Law, thus ensuring no one is discriminated on basis of religion. But there is an exception. Article 14 makes provision for “reasonable classification” wherein the principle of equality is relaxed. Thus, the principle of affirmative action or positive discrimination is possible if the criteria for classification is reasonable. All our policies for caste-based reservations, special rights to minorities in India are possible due to this reasonable classification. Even the Supreme Court has underlined this concept. In the case of Ram Krishna Dalmia v. Justice S R Tendolkar, the Court said “It is now well established that while Article 14 forbids class legislation, it does not forbid reasonable classification for the purposes of legislation”. It put forth the concept of “intelligible differentia” which distinguishes persons or things that are grouped together from others left out of the group, and one which has a rational relation to the object sought to be achieved by the statute in question. The object sought to be achieved as underlined in the act is to give citizenship to some community instead of taking or denying any community any benifit. Moreover, In the case of Parisons Agrotech Pvt Ltd. v. Union of India, the Apex Court held that the equality clause does not forbid geographical classification, provided the difference between the geographical units has a reasonable relation to the object sought to be achieved. Similarly, the persecuted minorities from these three nations form a reasonable classification, since all have faced systematic attacks, persecution and communal violence due to their presence in Islamic nations. All of the above being said, I’m sure this legislation would stand the test in the Supreme Court as well. Indian Muslims or for that matter any current Indian citizen, is in no way affected by this amendment. They are and will continue to enjoy all the benefits as legitimate Indian citizens. So, in essence this act is only a relaxation given to members of these six communities in the period of naturalisation, reduced from 11+1 years to 5+1 years, provided they fulfil all the conditions. The bill deals with refugees who are foreign citizens. Government has NOT prohibited any person of any country, Muslim or not, to apply for citizenship of our republic through the legal means. Any such process take place under other acts like Foreigners Act, 1946 and the MHA will continue to grant citizenship to everyone through that means, just as it was the case before enactment. India has also declared that any refugee entering India post 2015 shall be examined by the above-mentioned acts irrespective of their religion. Let’s examine the claims of some smaller groups within the Islam. But before that let’s keep in mind that there is a fundamental difference between persecuted religious minorities and ethnic violence. Ahmadiyya and Shias are victims of sectarian and ethnic violence which has nothing to do with religious persecution. Thus, they can’t be compared to persecuted religious minorities like Hindus, Buddhists, Sikhs, Jains, Parsis and Christians. Moreover, from a legal point of view, if we include cases of ethnic violence along with religious persecution, it cannot be called as “reasonable classification” and it will violate Article 14.

One other issue that has been raised is increment in population. I think it’s a genuine concern. But as act clarifies that relaxation made to people from these communities only applies to those who came to India, till the cut-off date of 2014. After which even members of these communities have to go with the usual 11+1 years of naturalisation, as provided by Citizenship Act, 1955. Now let’s look at some of the issues and raised by some in North-East regarding them suffering, due to influx of non-local refugees. The government has been sensitive to the needs of the Northeast people from day one. It was for the time in history of India that a separate ministry to co-ordinate between and look into implementation of needs of North-East was established under the PM Modi’s leadership. These provisions on citizenship for illegal migrants will not apply to the tribal areas of Assam, Meghalaya, Mizoram, and Tripura, included in the Sixth Schedule of the Constitution. These tribal areas include Karbi Anglong (in Assam), Garo Hills (in Meghalaya), Chakma District (in Mizoram), and Tripura Tribal Areas District.  Further, it will not apply to the “Inner Line” areas notified under the Bengal Eastern Frontier Regulation, 1873.  In these areas, visits by Indians are regulated through the Inner Line Permit.  Currently, this permit system is applicable to Arunachal Pradesh, Mizoram, and Nagaland. Thus, persecuted refugees won’t be settled in all these areas.  Moreover, Article 371 which provides special rights to North-eastern states will not be affected. The rights include usage of customary laws, land rights, rights of local bodies, local representation, etc. India is a civilisation whose base has always been protected and nurtured by tribal community and therefore it is of utmost importance to protect their indigenous nature. One other issue which has been raised by some sections of society has been the inclusion of other religiously prosecuted communities across the world. It has always been a consistent stand of Government of India regarding citizenship in which it has instead of making blanket laws, focused on country and situation specific laws. Weather it has been about Tamils or Tibetans of any other communities. The government is clear that all other refugees would be dealt with under existing laws like Foreigners Act 1946 and the established process would be followed. CAB specifically focus on persecuted religious minorities. It doesn’t mean other class of refugees would be ignored. One final issue that has propped up has been the issue of Rohingya Muslims. There are fundamental differences between Rohingyas and other refugees. CAB is specifically for three nations- Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan- where the minorities bore the brunt of partition and hence are persecuted. Rohingyas don’t fall in this category as they primarily originate in Myanmar. Also, there are conclusive reports that Rohingyas are a threat to national security of India. Rohingyas have contacts with terrorist organizations like ISIS and LeT. Not just India, PM of Bangladesh Sheikh Hasina is on record calling Rohingyas as a threat to national security.

One red flag regarding this bill is how would citizenship be dealt with regard to converts. It is not beyond imagination that for an issue like citizenship, conversion from other religion to any of the six provided in the act is an absolute probability. It is unclear as of now how government proposes to deal with such situations. This can be further clarified only after the MHA comes out with notification and guidelines to apply for citizenship. I am hopeful the apex court will look into that aspect. All in all, this legislation not only furthers our country’s great panoramic cultural continuity of last 5000 years but also adds another feather to it. This legislation not only is in accordance with Vasudaiv Kutumbakam principle that we so dearly value, but also creates exceptions where our National security and Interest is compromised. This is the ultimate example of New India, which holds its’ culture and values but at the same time is willing to go to any and all lengths to protect its integrity and people.

Amicably Yours: No more the Ram Janmabhoomi Dispute

The Supreme Court of India has very amicably settled the all (in)famous Ram Janmabhoomi Dispute. In essentiality it was a dispute which has been going on for centuries. The apex court, and in particular CJI Gogoi has been praised widely for settling this dispute, especially by his current and former colleagues in judiciary. The apex court has awarded the 2.77 acre of disputed land to Ram Lalla Virajman. The struggles of millions of Indians, including my own family has been vindicated. It is equally reassuring that the entire country has accepted this judgment. There is no discord or hostility on the ground and a rare amity, brotherhood and understanding has been witnessed. Most Muslims have welcomed the Ayodhya verdict as it is a balanced scorecard. This dispute was impeding the growth of the Muslim community in several ways. Gratitude is due to Chief Justice who led the Supreme Court bench which relieved India of this problem. This issue which was contentious, full of competing claims and interests many times giving rise to conflicts and hostility, has been resolved in a perfectly lawful manner consistent with the Maryada of our constitutional polity.  

The judgment as well as conduct of people is very symbolic of Ram Lalla himself. Lord Ram is also known as Maryada Purushottam. Dignity and ethics are central to his conduct and philosophy. His story for the last five thousand years continues to animate and inspire the psyche of ordinary Indians and remains a proud narrative of our civilizational, cultural and spiritual heritage. Significantly the court observed the practice of religion, Islam being no exception, varies according to the cultural and social context. Cultural assimilation is a significant factor which shaped the manner in which religion is practised, because cultural assimilation cannot be construed as a feature destructive of religious doctrine. Surely the heritage of Kabir, Rahim and Raskhan stands vindicated today.

Joseph Tiefenthaler was a Jesuit missionary who visited India in 1740. He notes the sacred character of Ayodhya, which he called Adjudea. In particular, he mentions a “Bedi” – a cradle – where Beschan (Vishnu) was born in the form of Ram. Alexander Cunningham, director general of Archaeological Survey of India, refers to Ayodhya in his 1862 report as the birthplace of Lord Ram. P Carnegie, commissioner and settlement officer of Faizabad, mentions in his 1870 report that “Ajudhia is to Hindus what Mecca is to Mohammedans”. The court concluded vide para 786 that travelogues of foreigners provide a detailed account both of the faith and belief of Hindus based on the sanctity which they ascribe to the birthplace of Lord Ram and to the actual worship by Hindus of the Janm-Sthan. Very significantly, the court further noted that for a period of 325 years from the date of the construction of the mosque until installation of a grill wall by the British, no evidence has been adduced by the Muslims to establish the exercise of possessory control over the disputed site. The court held that the oral and documentary evidence shows that the devotees of Lord Ram hold a genuine longstanding and profound belief in the religious merit attained by offering prayer to Lord Ram at the site they believe to be his birthplace. Significantly the court mentioned the acknowledgments by Muslim witnesses about the presence of Hindu religious symbols like Varah, Jai-Vijay and Garud outside the three-dome structure. The court further held, “They are suggestive not merely of the existence of faith and belief but of actual worship down the centuries.” Quite clearly, what was brought down was not just brick and mortar but a vibrant and active symbol and place of worship for millions of Hindus through centuries. 

While decreeing the suit in favour of Ram Lalla plaintiff of the Hindus in substance, the court also decided to provide restitution to the Muslim community by directing the government to allocate five acres of land to the Sunni Waqf Board. The central government has been directed to formulate a scheme envisaging the setting up of a trust for the management as also construction of a temple. It has also been given the liberty to hand over the rest of the acquired land for development in terms of the scheme.

It would have been much better if this dispute had been settled out of court, as suggested in 2017 by the then CJI J S Khehar or, recently, by the constitution bench led by CJI Ranjan Gogoi. As a matter of fact, the Muslims should have offered this patch of land to the Hindus, stating that they are doing so as a goodwill gesture for Lord Ram, while leaving the rest to Allah and Prophet Muhammad. Certainly, the magic would have worked, and the animosity of Partition would have been history. No doubt, after this gesture, the Hindus would have built not one but many mosques. Besides, this humane gesture would have obviated all scope for converting any other mosque —any monument, in fact — into a temple. However, owing to the actions of some self-appointed leaders of the community, the Muslims have missed the bus.

Some of the baggage Indian Muslims carry is due to the perception they believe the majority community has of them. That perception is, in fact, inaccurate, made up of half-truths and cooked-up charges. The other burden is a result of their own inaction, which has led to the emergence of opportunistic interlocutors — clerics and personal law boards. Muslims must come out of the control of these hypocritical, rigid clerics who lead them astray. If Muslims want to progress educationally, socially and economically, they must now try to get out of the clutches of the rabble-rousing representatives or faux secularists — these are the very people responsible for their misery since Partition. PM Modi, who tells them to hold the Quran in one hand and a computer in the other, has been their well-wisher. However, Opposition leaders have been misleading them. It is time Muslims stopped being misled by such leaders who keep instigating the community against the RSS and the BJP. Around 200 million Muslims have to exist in India with their non-Muslim brethren; they have to live in amity with them to take India towards success and glory.

Dilli mein Narendra, Mumbai mein Devendra

“Mi punha yein, yach nirdharan, yach bhumiket, yach thikani, Nav Maharashtrach nirmiti sathi”.

Above statement simply means “I will come again with the same foundation, in the same role, in the same place, to build a New Maharashtra.” On 2 July 2019, the incumbent CM ended the last assembly session of his first term with the above note. By now he had gone from a Modi-protege to Maharashtra’s most powerful and popular politician with a self-made base. Devendra Fadnavis is the frontrunner to win another term in the state, having waded through the highs and the lows of his first term, with consummate ease and distinction. Very few political observers would have been sceptical about this statement. But this wasn’t always the case. 

If in October 2014, political observers were asked to opine on the probability of a Brahmin Maharashtra chief minister from Vidarbha in his mid-40s with no cooperative movement link completing a full five-year term, the most common answer would have been “zero”. The last chief minister to complete his full five-year term in Maharashtra was Vasantrao Naik in 1972. Only one of the 17 chief ministers before Fadnavis was a Brahmin, Manohar Joshi of Shiv Sena. All previous chief ministers had a cooperative or local industrial base, which was their leverage in state politics. A Maratha chief minister from either Marathwada or Western Maharashtra area was the norm in state politics. Yet, the BJP trusted Fadnavis, not a novice, but certainly not a cookie-cutter template choice either. The odds facing Fadnavis were insurmountable — he faced opposition from within his party, from within his government and, of course, from the opposition.

Maharashtra is the economic engine of India, contributing almost 1/5^th of India’s gross domestic product (GDP) and attracting almost 50 per cent of all foreign direct investment (FDI) flowing into India in many years. Yet, politically, Maharashtra had been a cash cow, not a focal point of governance. Mumbai would get the fawning attention, but not the funds to invest in its crumbling infrastructure. Marathwada got several studies to understand how to deal with perennial water shortage but not many new ideas. Nagpur got a few projects mainly to ensure the Vidarbha statehood demand remained curbed, but not much in terms of connecting with the rest of the state. Fadnavis has managed to address several of these anomalies. Rather than getting bogged down by the various scenarios in which he may lose power, he leveraged his urban connect, a person-next-door image and his political vulnerability to create a brand associating himself with development and governance. He worked, talked about his work and got others to talk about his work.

The few big items that Fadnavis concentrated on are at different stages of taking shape. Over the next six years or so, Mumbai will complete a collection of projects Fadnavis has started or rejuvenated. All these projects are significantly standalone; collectively they will make Mumbai a very different city. Not yet Shanghai, but certainly the city Mumbai deserved to be a few decades ago, Mumbai will close gap with its own needs significantly. A 340-kilometre metro rail network will span across Mumbai, Thane and Navi Mumbai areas, making commuting in the city more comfortable and modern. An expanding suburban rail network will connect Mumbai with several towns in the Konkan region, opening access for job-seekers. The metro was first conceptualised in 1990s and the current plan was ready as early as 2005. A new airport will come up at Navi Mumbai. The new airport was first proposed in 1997. The Mumbai Trans-Harbour Link (MTHL) will connect South Mumbai to the mainland near Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust. The MTHL is being talked about since 1963. Successive state governments lacked the will and the conviction to see these projects through. The Fadnavis government is working on the ambitious, India’s longest expressway of 710 km Mumbai-Nagpur Samruddhi Mahamarg. With the project achieving full financial closure, the Vidarbha-Khandesh-Konkan connectivity will get a huge boost, opening new markets for farmers as well as industries. Along the highway, the government plans targeted industrial and residential clusters. His flagship Jalyukt Shivar Abhiyan has covered almost 17,000 villages. Constructing local water harvesting, storage and transporting projects has helped these villages reduce their dependency on rain as well as big dams. Maharashtra has also continued to attract domestic and foreign investments. Be it the factories of GE, Philips or Britannia or the retail expansion of Ikea, the state continues to benefit from a stable political environment and being the preferred migration destination of a skilled workforce. The proposed nuclear power plant in Jaitapur and the oil refinery in Raigad district also promise to add energy to the long list of industries in which Maharashtra leads the country. Devendra Fadnavis has articulated his dream of steering Maharashtra towards a $1-trillion economy. As India targets a $5-trillion economy, this target for Maharashtra makes eminent sense, with its share of GDP over the years. From the current $400-billion-odd levels, it will take 12 years of 8 per cent growth to achieve this feat. Fadnavis runs his government from Mumbai, India’s economic capital. While this brings great glamour to the job, it is a risk in itself. If the financial district of the Bandra-Kurla Complex sneezes, quite likely, Wall Street will catch a cold. If the factories in Chakan or the software firms in Hinjewadi are prevented from operating, global leaders may call New Delhi. This interdependency reflects the best of global economic integration; it also exposes the city to manipulation. Throwing normalcy out of gear even for a day or two can lead to increased global concern, if not panic. 

If Fadnavis is re-elected, he will continue to face opposition emanating from the caste fault-lines of the state. He had to work hard on ensuring that social schemes in the state didn’t snowball into large-scale violent protests. On many occasions, he had to use his personal political capital and goodwill to diffuse frayed sentiments. Given that Fadnavis implemented the long-standing demand of Maratha reservation, mobilisation of political opposition in the garb of social causes has become difficult. Additionally, the BJP has also fortified its Maratha leadership ranks. But the ‘Peshwai’ barbs thrown at Fadnavis will remain — a historic reference to the Brahmin Peshwas governing symbolically on behalf of the Maratha rulers, but in essence, edging them out of significance. Mumbai has the most diverse demographic make-up across all large cities in India. This diversity manifests itself in two ways — language and religion. In a Marathi-speaking state, created on linguistic basis, only 42 per cent residents of the capital city are native Marathi speakers. In terms of religion, Mumbai has 66 per cent Hindus, 21 per cent Muslims, 5 per cent Buddhists, 4 per cent Jains, 3 per cent Christians, and just less than 1 per cent Sikhs. It is also home to India’s largest population of Parsis, with 60,000 of them living in the city. While this linguistic and religious diversity has contributed immensely to Mumbai’s tenacity and progressive worldview, it sadly also has been a source of strife. No other Indian chief minister deals with this religious and linguistic diversity in his own capital city as the Chief Minister of Maharashtra. This is the complexity Fadnavis has managed in addition to checkmating his wily political opponents in Sharad Pawar, Raj Thackeray, Ashok Chavan and Prithviraj Chavan, and managing his tantrum-prone ally Shiv Sena. But this is an ongoing battle if he comes back to run Maharashtra. The expectations will only multiply if he is re-elected. The good news for the state is that after a long time, a chief minister is seeking votes in his own name and work.

A corporator at 24, mayor at 26, Member of Legislative Assembly (MLA) at 28, Fadnavis has spent two decades now in the corridors of power in Mumbai. His no-nonsense, pro-development, less dogma and more action-orientation approach have served him well in his first term. Dilli mein Narendra, Mumbai mein Devendra — Narendra (Modi) in Delhi and Devendra (Fadnavis) in Mumbai, that’s the promise BJP has held out to the voters in Maharashtra. This time Fadnavis, now the tallest leader in Maharashtra with cross-caste acceptance and not just a budding Brahmin MLA from Vidarbha, will in all probability become the longest serving CM in the history of Maharashtra.